Thursday, April 28, 2011

Election notes - T minus 4 days

Everyone, and I mean everyone, is shocked at the NDP surge. Whether their 2nd place in the polls actually translates into being ahead of the Liberals and Bloc as far as seats is another story.

I've made some points on my Twitter account which I'll repost here...

  • Iggy's 30min townhall.. Kinda dull and dry. He seems like a good man, but it's the Liberal brand that's not palatable. He doesn't inspire me
  • Actually, I think this high advanced voter turnout "shock" is nothing other than because Easter wknd fell at the perfect time in an elxn.
  • GOTV on elxn day will have the  +2 pts.  -2 b/c they do not have the same ground-game w scruitineers, vote ID, & drivers.

The key post above is the last one.  I don't think the NDP surge in Quebec will translate into many more seats.  They have a very limited organization there.  The NDP is also in 3rd in Ontario, so don't see much seat movement. The Conservatives in Ontario, are, however, far ahead.  And that's where vote splitting could see the Conservatives, who have the best ground game, get the 15 seats enough for a majority.  The NDP surge in BC, I think, may see the Conservatives not win back as many seats there as expected.

Everyone is also asking, what happened to the Liberals?  They were trending upward but then the debates, and I believe, Iggy's "Rise Up" speech made lefties look at Iggy and Jack and say, "Jack's where it's at."

So, my post before the election started, to recap, was this...

Pre-Election PredictionOh heck, why not.
Conservatives will hit 40%, really close to a majority.Liberals will get 25% and lose seats.NDP will gain votes in urban centres but lose in rural areas to Conservatives, causing vote splitting with the Liberals in cities.
157 (+14) Conservative  70 (-7) Liberal  30 (-7) NDP  50 (+3) Bloc Quebecois    1 (-) Independent
You heard it here first!
If I were to make an adjustment to that, I'd say:
157 Conservative (+14)

  60 Liberal (-17)
  50 NDP (+13)
  40 Bloc (-7)
    1 Ind (-)

But who the hell

1 comment:

Cranky or Just A Crank said...

I think that you are in the ballpark for the government.As you do I still believe that the CPC will get a thin, but not razor thin majority.

I am still not sold on the wave of NDP support to carry Jack to 50 seats. That's about a third more than the NDPs received last time and I don't see where those seats are coming from.

In Canada proper, their rural ridings are shakey because of the gun registry and the sole Alberta riding is gone becuase U of A is out of session and the students can't stuff the ballot box.

Quebec may have a bit of shift from one flavour of lefty to another, but deep down Quebecers like to have some stroke in order to get the goodies and if they are shifting from the Bloc they aren't going to get a piece fo the action with the NDP.