Friday, April 22, 2011

Election notes - Day ??

I'm currently on an undisclosed tropical island enjoying a couple weeks off.  But that doesn't mean I haven't been keeping up-to-date on the election.

Here's what I know and what I think I know.

The NDP are gaining momentum which was triggered by Jack's performance in the debates.  I also think those on the left are comparing Iggy and Jack and liking Jack a lot more, especially in Quebec.  Iggy's "Rise Up" speech, I think, was a bit of a turn off for many, and many leftoids are confused as to what Iggy's intentions are with a potential coalition.  Not with Jack.  In Quebec, the NDP are ahead of both other federalist parties with the Bloc losing ground.

So who are these soft-separatists that are turning to the NDP?  They're coalitionists now!  By supporting the NDP and putting them above the Liberals, they've realized there is a potential for Jack Layton as PM in a coalition gov't with Gilles Duceppe in there somehow.  It's crazy, I know, but Jack's performance in the French debate was very good and convincing.

So now, this is where I'm going to speculate on some Conservative strategy.  Hear me out dear readers.  Consider...

- We all know, Stephen Harper's plan all along has been to replace the Liberals as the "natural governing party".

- With the Liberals moving to the right against the massive Conservative wall, the gap on the centre-left was left wide open.  Jack has successfully moved into it with some centrist policies like the small business tax cut and other family-friendly measures.  But it's more on personality than policy.  People simply like Jack a lot more than Iggy.

- So I think the Conservatives are helping Jack Layton.

- Did Stephen Harper willingly take a back seat in the French debate to let Jack do most of the talking?

- Is the recent Conservative attack ad on Jack Layton not really an attack ad at all but a way to draw attention to him so that lefties consider Jack as a potential leader of the opposition or the prime minister in a coalition gov't?   ... While at the same time, drawing away some soft NDP anti-coalitionists in BC and Ontario to the Conservatives themselves?

For this blogger, ideally, I would love to see the end or decimation of the Liberal party.  They were a terrible official opposition--Iggy's voting record notwithstanding.

While I disagree with them on many issues, I've always admired the NDP--they at least stand for something and would be a formidable official opposition to the Conservatives.  And I also think with a stronger NDP, it would quash the Liberals from wanting to merge, which is, of course, good for Stephen Harper.

Not only that, but having a Conservative majority is the best thing for our growing and prosperous country.  With lower corporate taxes, we are already seeing more investment and growth in the economy, which has had the positive effect of actually bringing in more revenue for the government, which is why the deficit is shrinking faster than expected.  I don't understand how many people don't get that concept.

And for national unity.  In a majority, we all know Harper will bring in legislation to eliminate the taxpayer-funding for political parties.  The Bloc relies on over 85% of their revenue from this funding.  Removing that, would hurt them big time.

So everything appears to be working in favour of Stephen Harper in his quiet campaign.  Like in 2004, after Canadian families got together for Christmas dinner and talked politics, the Conservatives surged.  The key polls will be after the Easter dinners where I think lefty Canadians at the table will see that the Liberals have no hope in defeating Harper, but they do see a potential for Jack Layton as official opposition leader or the leader and PM of a coalition government.

For an election about nothing, it seems to be an election about what those traditionally strategic-voting leftwing Canadians are thinking... that they're finally going to vote the party and leader they've always wanted to vote for.  And they're feeling pretty damn good about it.

Ok, now back to the beach and warm sunshine...


Canadianna said...

. . . well, that all makes sense to me. Hope you're right.

Send some sunshine this way, please.

Anonymous said...

The danger in a minority government, any minority government, is that it lends itself to a slow erosion of the treasury. Regardless of how stoic or honourable you think the PM might be, whether its Jack or Stephen, every little request from the parties holding the balance of power also comes with the threat of an election.
So if Gilles wants some money for an arena, it comes as a threat of give me a hundred million here, or we have a 300 million dollar election. Keep funding my party with 10 million or we have a 300 million dollar election.
Eventually all those 10 and 100 million dollar deals to avoid an election add up to billions.
It happened when Trudeau had a minority, it happened in Ontarion when Peterson had one and it happened in the last 2 parliaments.
The only way to ever avoid this is to either go to a 2 party system a la the US or go to a system of run-off elections.
The Greens and NDP love proportional representation, but that guarantees the erosion - one only need look at the state of most EU economies.

L said...

Yes, there are too many lefty parties whose members do not pay taxes, but want everyone else's money. The BLOC needs to go. If it takes the NDP to do the deed, so be it. All those Quebec allophones need to start to LEARN that they came to Canada, not Quebec, and there is a lot to loose if they do not start electing serious candidates who are Canadians first.

Thucydides said...

The next project for Jack Layton should be to unite the left: grab the Orange Liberals, the BQ and the Greens under the Socialist Alliance Party.

Orange Liberals will go to where the promise of power lies. The BQ is a National Socialist Party so the platforms are pretty similar on a macro level (just substitute "working families" for "pure laine Quebecois"), and the Greens are pretty leftist as well, so the fit is a natural.

Mike B. said...

All good points everyone!