Election Post Mortem

I say, there's no better title to this blog post than "Post Mortem" due to the election's political death of leaders, cabinet ministers, and other high-profile MPs.

Lorne Gunter has some insight on the NDP "surge" and how it was the Tories who actually surged through splits.

I lament, however, at no longer having the bulk of my posts focus on Dr. Michael Ignatieff.  It was fun to challenge his intentions to become PM.  I look forward to the next victim, Justin Trudeau, who will surely woo young soft Dipper support in Quebec once Quebeckers see that their new crop of NDP MPs won't deliver on anything and will turn on them so fast to look for the next best thing.  However, older soft-sovereignists will surely halt any exodus reciting "Je me souviens" and how Justin's father helped ignite Quebec nationalism.

And speaking of Quebec nationalism, Mr. Duceppe, it's been a slice, but your party, like your province, no longer has any real relevancy or power in Parliament.  Conservatives have shown that a majority is possible without Quebec and this will continue in elections to come as more seats are added to BC, Alberta, and Ontario.  Now especially with a few Quebec Conservative cabinet ministers getting turfed, Quebec continues to choose to be on the outside of government and the national stage.  So be it.

"Jack and Gilles went up the Hill to fetch a pail of water
Jack fell down, sprained his hip, recovered, and Gilles tumbled all the way thereafter."

For American-born, dual-citizenship, Elizabeth May, she and her party survive another day, despite losing 380,000 votes from 2008, that's a almost $800,000 the Greens WON'T receive in vote subsidies, but now, they won't have to pay her a salary.  I may spend some time focusing on her and her policies in future posts.

Speaking of salaries... over 100 MPs lost or retired.  How many qualify for the gold-plated pension I'm not sure, but many long-time MPs, including Gilles Duceppe, will live very comfortably for the rest of their lives.

For Prime Minister Stephen Harper, it has been a very long time coming.  Over ten years actually to get here.  After his hiatus as a Reform MP and leading the National Citizens' Coalition for a few years, in 2000, seeing Stockwell Day's days numbered, he returned with one intention--to unite the right. 

This election, I maintain that Harper was the one who engineered the election, trapping Ignatieff into holding the gov't in contempt.

I maintain that Harper let Jack attack Ignatieff on his voting record in the English debate and let him go toe-to-toe with Duceppe in the French debate.  Harper knew he didn't need Quebec to win, which is why Harper didn't have to say much and actually sacrificed Quebec and some of his cabinet ministers to the NDP to win it all elsewhere.

With a loss, two minority wins, and now a majority, Harper has proven as a skilled tactician, there is only one winner in a game of chess, not only with opposition leaders, but from within as well.  He is and will remain for many years, the last man standing up high on the Hill, with the only pail of water.

Election notes - Day 5

• Libs and Dips are now trumpeting a Stephen Harper interview from 1997 when he was head of the National Citizens' Coalition talking about ... coalitions..when he wasn't even an MP.. when the right.. the PCs and Reform Party were divided.  He made no mention of the Bloc.  But what Libs and Dips fail to see in ALL of this is that back in 2008, they went into a formal support agreement with the Bloc Quebecois separatists.  In 2004, there was no agreement between the opposition parties to form a coalition government.  In 2008, there was.  No one, not even Tom Flanagan, has provided proof otherwise, other than saying Harper was "contemplating" it.  I'm sure Ignatieff is "contemplating" going back to Harvard when he loses this election and steps down as leader too.
   
• Green Party leader Elizabeth May has not been invited to the leaders' debates.  Aw.  Win your own seat, Betty.  I'm trying to find out if Preston Manning was at the debates in 1988 and 1993.  Does anyone know?
  
• A friend of mine who's a Green supporter said to me, "May has the political acumen of a goldfish. Why she has to go up against Conservative cabinet ministers is beyond me.  Oh, and I'm voting Conservative this time because we need simply need a majority government."  I've heard this several times from traditionally non-Conservative voters.
  
• Jack then says he doesn't know why May cannot attend (good on him taking the higher road though).  The NDP is also moving to the right of the Liberals with today promising to lower the small business tax and provide incentives. Very smart move by the NDP but is it street-level Tim Hortons type policy?  Another TV spot is out too.  Not bad. Not bad at all.
  
• An NDP candidate in Ontario has dropped out of the race to support the Liberal saying he doesn't want to split the vote.  Methinks he actually was a Liberal in Dipper clothing.  Liberals are sneaky. Always have been.  You now wonder how many Liberals are going to join the NDP and cause a merger down the road.
  
• I've been following the website threehundredeight.com for some time now.  Here's the current numbers:
  Con 151 (+8) ... 4 more to the magic number
  Lib 73 (-4)
  BQ 51 (+4)
  NDP 33 (-3)
  
• Liberals are way down in Quebec.  Conservatives are leading well in battlegrounds of Ontario and BC.  Even if Ontario stays as it is, the Prairies and BC could actually and finally decide if it's a majority or not.  The key will be another strong NDP showing in urban centres to split the vote with Liberals.  Well, except for Edmonton-Strathcona.  The Liberals just finally nominated their candidate there.  I've been saying it for years... the Liberals and NDP in Edmonton work together and support the better candidate in many of the ridings.
  
• I think the debates will be key to this election. No one is really paying attention right now except us bloggers, hacks, and pundits.  Everyone is wondering why we're having an election.  Uh, because they're fun? Duh! ..lol..  I think to truly secure a majority, at the debate, Harper has to make Iggy trip up on his tongue, and in the last 16 days, Harper has to come out with some fuzzy hope and vision. I'm wondering if the Conservatives haven't over-played their hand with all the TV ads and 'coalition' talk.
  
• Messaging.  Here's the buzz words in my own head emanating from each party at the present moment.
  - Conservative:  "they'll form a coalition" -- ok, we get it.  Move on to something else.
  - Liberal:  "will give you poor students $4000" -- and so will the rich students
  - Bloc:  "Frère Jacques, frère Jacques, Dormez-vous? Dormez-vous? Sonnez les matines! Sonnez les matines! Din, dan, don. Din, dan, don". -- Campaigns are old hat for Gilles.
  - NDP:  "Now that's Canadian leadership." -- well, I wouldn't expect anything else. They need a better slogan though.  But Jack is impressing me the most again this election.  He's energetic despite the hip, he's positive, and he's speaking clearly and with vigour.

Harper leads...

Nanos research did a leadership poll recently and found that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is far ahead of Michael Ignatieff on trustworthiness, competency, and vision.

Canadians like it when a leader leads and takes a stand. That's why they loved Trudeau, Mulroney, Chretien, and now are really warming up to Harper. But note the undecided. There's room, but I'd say most of those are people who don't even vote (for shame!).

Regardless, Canadians trust Stephen Harper more than twice as much as Michael "Just Visiting" Ignatieff.

The most trustworthy leader

National (n=1,002)

• Stephen Harper: 31%
• Michael Ignatieff: 14%
• Jack Layton: 14%
• Gilles Duceppe: 8%
• Elizabeth May: 8%
• None of them/Undecided: 25%

The most competent leader

National (n=1,002)

• Stephen Harper: 36%
• Michael Ignatieff: 20%
• Jack Layton: 11%
• Gilles Duceppe: 7%
• Elizabeth May: 2%
• None of them/Undecided: 24%

The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

National (n=1,002)

• Stephen Harper: 32%
• Michael Ignatieff: 20%
• Jack Layton: 15%
• Gilles Duceppe: 4%
• Elizabeth May: 4%
• None of them/Undecided: 25%

Leadership Index Score

• Stephen Harper: 99
• Michael Ignatieff: 54
• Jack Layton: 40
• Gilles Duceppe: 19
• Elizabeth May: 14

The Latest

I'm currently in Los Angeles, but here are my comments of the latest political happenings...

- Elizabeth May running in BC somewhere. Run, Betty, run! ... yawn

- Harper's senate appointments... a necessary evil. Rest assured many of us Conservatives will be piping up if the party wins a majority next election and no further progress is made on senate reform.

- Iggy wants an election. ... yawn. Were Bob Rae's hawks responsible for pushing this knowing Iggy would lose? Unlike some delusional Liberals, methinks Canadians don't really want much change, but I also don't think they punish parties that force one. The best the Liberals can do is gain 20 seats to 97. But I don't know where those seats would come from.

- Iggy's TV ads. ... yawn

- Stephen Harper spontaneously plays "Gimme Shelter" on an old piano in the Niagara region. Sounds like a leader who's feeling relaxed to me.

- Obama's speech to students... awesome and necessary. Republican pundits and politicians are just jealous. George Bush Sr. did a similar thing. Newt Gingrich even thought it was okay.

- Health care debate in the U.S. ... very bad and lots of truth bending and myths spouted. Lou Dobbs on CNN is at least looking at other countries' systems. USA Today shows that insurance payments have gone up dramatically over the past 5 years and some families pay up to $1400-1900/month. I don't know about you but that's crazy.

- God bless Canada.

Day 3 of the Federalection

Some thoughts on Day Three...

I'm looking forward to some policies, but now we have dominating the media...

- Dion calling Harper a liar on Harper stating that Dion would raise the GST (which he DID say) especially when Dion said he wouldn't go negative. Bad taste.

- Conservative website notaleader having comic with a bird defecating on Dion. Very bad taste. Harper agrees. Story will have one more day of traction. But here's a page where you can make your own Dion attack ad. It's kind of fun actually.

- Conservative attacks on Dion's Green Shift Carbon Tax plan really hitting home in BC where they already have a carbon tax. A few more days of this and Canadians will want to hear something else but they don't want to talk about the carbon tax because it sounds like a new tax. Harper saying any politician that claims a new tax would be revenue neutral is misleading the public. He's right.

- Liberal plane an old junket from 1979 is a big polluter. Dion says they contributed carbon offsets to a green technology company that's only built a windmill back in 2001. Story will die in 1-2 more days.

- Green Leader Elizabeth May not allowed in the televised debates. I think most people want her on but strategically, a smart move by Layton and Harper to not want her on. Issue won't die.

- It's day two and I'm already tired of Harper's "family man" campaigning. Looking forward to some campaign policy planks.

- Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe. BORING. He used to not be boring.

- Jack Layton still being exciting .. riding Obama's wave, not mentioning the Liberals, attacking Harper on policy

- Stephane Dion counteracting Conservative attacks on his leadership with online ads of him in the outdoors doing outdoorsy things. Good plan. Also admits that he has a hearing problem and is the reason why he has difficulty speaking English with a clear accent because "English has a 'music' to it that I find difficult to hear". Humbling.

But two policies announcement did come out today:

- Conservatives will lower the diesel tax by two cents. Not a real kitchen table policy. Translates with truckers but will trucking companies pass that savings on to consumers? Unlikely.

- Liberals will DOUBLE the child care tax credit from $1200 to $2400 per year per child. THERE YOU GO! Taking Conservative policy and making it better right at the kitchen table.

Winner today... Liberal Leader Stephane Dion. He's been taking punches and fighting back with good policy and a humble nature.

But is it simply too late to shake the weak leader image portrayed in Conservative attack ads? Time is running out.

My prediction still stands at a slight Conservative majority, due to Bloc and Liberal loses in Quebec, Ontario, and BC with NDP gains also causing vote splitting on the left.

The Conservatives under Harper with three parties on the left now remind me of the Liberals under Chretien with two parties on the right from 1993 - 2004.

Leader Kick-Off Speeches and Campaign Ads

Well after day one of the Canadian federal election here are my first impressions.

Stephane Dion (Liberal) -- Very poor speech. It's still difficult to understand what he's saying sometimes. Mentions their "exciting" platform, but doesn't specifically mention his Green Shift carbon tax plan. No ads that I've seen, not all candidates have been nominated, lack of money, and no campaign plane! Good start! (D-)

Jack Layton (NDP) -- Very good inspiring speech and very good campaign ad. He seems upbeat, optimistic, specific, and even acting like a consumer advocate which is new and refreshing. Jack doesn't mention the Liberals at all, just Harper and the Conservatives. With a backdrop of the Parliament where he spoke across the river in Gatineau, it was an excellent stint. His French is much better than Dion's English, that's for sure. Hints at Obama and "change" and "hope" and all that good stuff. Says he's shooting to be prime minister. I think this is excellent strategy... making it a choice between Conservative policy or NDP values. He then takes a balsy move and gets on the NDP airplane to Harper's riding in Calgary to give another excellent speech. His supporters seem very enthusiastic. The NDP have an opportunity to win more seats in Ontario and Quebec. In BC, the Conservatives are doing well again and will gain seats where the NDP may lose. Excellent campaign ad against Harper. If Jack continues on like this, he can solidify those soft-NDP supporters who are often weary of a Conservative majority and vote Liberal. If I was a lefty in Canada, I'd be voting NDP for sure. (B+)

Elizabeth May (Greens) -- Good speech. Very fiery but received little to no media coverage. But she's annoying to me. I think she's too lefty for what I thought the Greens were--libertarian, fiscal conservative, low tax, environmentalists. Now it just seems they're about the environment. I still don't think they're going to win any seats but will come close in many ridings. (B-)

Gilles Duceppe (Bloc) -- Boring. Says to prevent a Harper majority to vote Bloc. Duh. I like Gilles Duceppe, but I think Quebeckers are tired of him, as they're tired of the separatist thing. Conservatives are doing well there because of their open federalism policy which to me is holding the country together better than Trudeau/Chretien Liberal centralization. (C-)

Stephen Harper (Conservative) -- Relaxed, but a bit boring. He admitted that he's still learning "your language (French)" which came across as humbling in an odd way. He outlined the difference in choice on taking a risk or a "steady course". The Conservatives are simply going to coast through the election on Harper's leadership. I wonder if that's risky by also not highlighting the rest of the team. Paul Martin did the same and look where it got him. (C+)

Voter Turnout... I think this will be worse than last election and less than 60% will vote. People just don't seem to care as much.

But I think there's a lot of soft conservatives/former liberals out there who are pleased with Harper's leadership and are tired of these minority parliaments and get more done.

But I'll be honest, why I'd never vote NDP from an ideological stand-point, I'm inspired to follow Jack Layton and his style, speeches, and see how it resonates with voters and translates into votes. It's certainly on day one, the most exciting campaign. But why am I doing this? Because the better the NDP do, the worse the Liberals do, and the NDP are a much more effective opposition, which a good democracy needs, and I'm sure that's also why Stephen Harper is so relaxed and humble.