Alberta Election 2015

As I type this, Apprentice Premier Jim Prentice is about to drop the writ and call an election.

As the Alberta PCs continue to reinvent themselves after almost 44 years in power, let's just say this election will be a referendum on the recent budget, coupled with distant memories of former Premier Alison Redford's failed leadership.

For those that got duped into thinking Prentice was a right-of-centre conservative (Danielle Smith et al., I'm looking in your direction), this budget proved otherwise--downloading the burden of total mismanagement, frivolous expenses, and massive, unaccounted spending onto the hard working middle class.  The other provincial governments who have raised taxes on its citizens have not taxed, nor spent their way out of deficit and debt.

As much as Prentice's initial tough-talk on cutting spending, we see a measly 0.7% cut, where taxes on an average family are now up by well over $2000/year.  So much for the federal tax cuts.  Gax tax increase of 4 cents alone will raise the price of everything due to shipping and transport.

But we know all this.

What we don't know is the level of impact the other parties will have in making a dent into the PC juggernaut.  A party that, in the last election, two weeks before the vote, called in a desperate plea to the backroom corporate trough for funds, coupled with Danielle Smith's mishandling of the Huntsberger scandal, led to Redford's win.  I have shown that old PC voters who didn't show up for Ed Stelmach, came out this time to support their old party.

The NDP have a full slate of candidates with more than half of them women.  Rachel Notley has done a fantastic job since becoming leader and in her measured resolve, has pushed out positive messaging to garner support, even from conservatives who dream of an effective opposition once again.  So much so is her support, a recent poll shows the NDP sweeping Edmonton.  As I told Deron Belous, NDP MLA for Beverly, the NDP can potentially hold the balance of power in a minority PC gov't.  It might just happen, folks.

The Liberals are essentially leaderless with former leader David Swann taking the interim helm.  Save a few stalwart seats, like Laurie Blakeman's in Edmonton Centre, the weakened, decimated Alberta Liberals will most certainly fall below the NDP, and possibly the Alberta Party.

The Alberta Party led by Greg Clark needs to concentrate its energy on a few ridings to at least get into the picture.  Failing that with a weak Liberal Party, terrible PC budget, and a bloodied Wildrose, if they don't get at least one seat, this project can simply be deemed a failure.

The remnants of the Wildrose Party, now led by former federal Conservative MP Brian Jean, was recently shown in a poll as tied with the PCs.  This gave much hope and fire for the embattled opposition party.  Conservatives I've spoken to who felt abandoned and disenchanted, appear to be leaning back to the Wildrose with Jean (a.k.a. someone who is a respected conservative) as the leader.  Jean has put up a $100,000 bond to guarantee he won't cross the floor, ever.  He made a Wildrose candidate resign for inappropriate comments overheard on stage at Jean's victory party.

Question is, will the Wildrose be able to raise enough funds to fight this fight for measured TV, radio, and newspaper ads to pull at the emotions of pissed-off middle class Albertans so much so to at least a protest 'No' vote on the recent budget.  In my opinion, that's all they need to do.  Their funds were recently completely depleted in the failed by-elections late last year, so it's an uphill climb, but it needs to happen now.

The PCs didn't raise corporate taxes.  That oughta be enough fodder for big oil to donate to and thank Prentice for fancy ads to sucker voters into giving them yet another term because the other parties are weak. With former president of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta, Jim McCormick, resigning from the board of directors, this is an indication that things are not well within the party.

Keeping the PCs below 35% of the total vote should be enough to put them into a minority situation.

Forty-four years is enough.  Don't let it be 48.  If there's ever been a time for change, this really has to be it.

The Prentice Budget and the Fall of Danielle Smith

I cannot find one single person online who was disappointed that Danielle Smith lost her PC nomination bid in Highwood to Carrie Fischer.  Not one.

This, after the biggest combined tax hike and deficit in Alberta's history in a terrible budget that puts blame, as Apprentice Premier Prentice puts it, on Albertans that voted in the PCs year after year, when the party and government completely failed to "look in the mirror" themselves and admit they're the ones who have mismanaged and misspent the very tax dollars they want more of.

Sad how that floor crossing exodus by Smith and her ilk depleted the official opposition to four seats, believing that Jim Prentice was a true conservative, when clearly that is not the case--a progressive red liberal if anything, which is what many of us who've followed Prentice for years know that is what his real stripe is.

Sad how a text exchange with reporter Vassy Kapelos from Global and subsequent apology (which I won't repeat here) became Smith's last known parting note as a politician, after those years of trying to portray herself as an articulate rural Albertan woman that would one day become premier.

Sad how her biggest mistake, as many pundits and bloggers put it, was in the last provincial election where when it looked like a Wildrose victory, an old online post from candidate Huntsburger about gays was outed and trotted.  Right there, Smith should have dismissed his candidacy, but instead defended his right to have these views.  Coupled with a last minute plea to former PC big donors, the Wildrose only hit the mid-teens, crowning Alison Redford as the new preem, who soon later, was pushed out of her own party, leaving the door open for Jim Prentice.

Sad how a premier, who has no mandate from voters, with virtually no opposition, can simply raise taxes without having it actually passed in the legislature first.

Happy that NDP leader Rachel Notley's calm, professional approach toward getting her message out with mass door knockings and online video spots is connecting with Albertans, even conservative ones who believe in a strong opposition.  I mean, come on, even the NDP wouldn't have hiked taxes like this!

What of the Wildrose, the once real government in waiting?

Enter Brian Jean, former Ft. McMurray Conservative MP, who, just hours before Smith lost her bid, took her place as leader of the Wildrose.  Likely more invigorated than ever due to the recent high tax budget, the Wildrose felt like they were onto something and perhaps back in the saddle.

But whoa there!  Just as Brian Jean was celebrating his win on stage with party supporters, recent Wildrose nominee Bill Jarvis was overheard on stage over the room microphone in a massive gaffe saying they needed a couple more brown people in front.  Despite his quick apology, and likely a bad joke, even swifter was new leader Brian Jean in making Jarvis resign.  Unlike Smith with Huntsburger, it appears Jean won't make that big mistake again.  That said, the hillbilly damage reared its head again in the Wildrose, despite other similar gaffes by PC MLAs and PC candidate probes in recent memory.

In another swift move, Jean also put up a $100,000 retainer that he would never cross the floor. It's an interesting gesture that puts those questions to rest.  But, the other question out there is how Jean's own company donated $10,000 to the PCs.  Whether that decision was in his control is a business matter, but that hefty donation alone also points out the dire need for Alberta's political donation laws to emulate the federal model, and badly.

The Wildrose have a steep hill to climb to gain the trust of the once seemingly strong conservative supporters and to win back social libertarians, which despite Alberta's supposed redneck image, clearly dominate the landscape.  I'm hearing many well-respected folks supported Brian Jean, but admit it, 99% of Albertans don't have a clue who he is.

Now that I'm hearing rumours that a provincial election will be called today if not soon, the Wildrose would be lucky to gain official opposition status from the NDP, who may very well double their seats from 4 to 8.  But still, a government in waiting, or even fully effective opposition, this does not make!

Sad how I'm hearing people say, "I'll vote PC because there's no one else to vote for?"  Really?  You really have to ask yourself if you agree with this budget, how corporate political donations prop up the PCs in their favour, and if it's good for democracy having the same party in power for 44 years, among hundreds of other arguments.

But the main argument is this. A government and this PC party in particular require a strong opposition or this province will continue to be mismanaged by absolute power that has corrupted absolutely.

Don't be swayed by a premier and party the way Danielle Smith was.  How she thought their policies lined up with hers and wooed her over, the official opposition leader nonetheless, only to find she didn't have the support she thought she had.

Such is the fall of Danielle Smith.

And such is the fall of Alberta politics.

The APPrentice - PC Alberta version

CALGARY SUN PHOTO -- 2009/03/27 -- Alberta environment minister Jim Prentice listens to Attorney General Alison Redford as she speaks to media in the Calgary Remand Centre gymnasium on Friday, March 27. Government officials were officially announcing legislation aimed at reducing 'credit for time served'
Lyle Aspinall/Sun Media

We now have a new rookie premier.  Next provincial election, we should all have our own version of the show "The Apprentice" called "The APPrentice" or "Alberta PC Prentice".

The PC Party of Alberta, amidst expense scandal after scandal under the Redford regime, in order to change its wool for the third time, felt that steamrolling a former federal Conservative cabinet minister into the premier's chair would mark a new era in how this party runs the province.

Really?  A party that covets democracy so much finally realized that citizens from other party stripes would buy memberships en masse to vote and have their liberalish candidate win on subsequent run-off ballots was not something they wanted to repeat.  Can't have too many candidates run, but not too few to make it not look like a race, you know.  Oh, how we miss the exciting party leadership convention format (which worked, by the way).

So let's look at the PC leadership election, itself mired in controversy, and then pick apart the new cabinet.  Fun times ahead!

In the leadership "race", 23,386 votes were cast.  Prentice won on the first ballot with 17,863 votes, Ric McIver got 2,742 and Thomas Lukaszuk got 2,681.

But looking back to the party's leadership race in 2011, 59,359 votes were cast on the first ballot and 76,186 votes on the second ballot's first round.

The vote difference on the first ballot between the 2014 and 2011 races is 35,973 votes.  That's a 61% drop.  It was said more people attend Edmonton Eskimo games than the number of voters here.  And then, about the same number of people who attend Edmonton Oilers games voted for Prentice.

Let's admit that this is not a lot of people in a province of 4 million.  And let's also admit that interest in the PC Party has dropped off significantly.  So much so that Prentice cannot claim in any way shape or form that he has a mandate from the people.

The race saw Prentice handing out free memberships.
The vote was a sham in itself.
There are reports that while many people were able to vote twice, many were not even able to vote.

Oh, and some have said that because Prentice won by so much, it didn't really matter.  Really?  Is that the level of argument that party democracy has come to?  They can't even run a leadership race for only 23 thousand people, and you think they can still run a province.

If you're not convinced that nothing has or will change with this party and how they run the province, then let's move on to the recently appointed cabinet, shall we?

Two, not one, but two cabinet ministers were appointed from the citizenry and not from the elected MLAs in the PC or any other caucus.  While perfectly legal, is it right?  One is former Edmonton mayor, Stephen Mandel (who we all know was a Liberal) appointed as health minister, and the other is Gordon Dirks, a former pastor and Saskatchewan Conservative MLA appointed as the education minister.

Dirks himself was known to be associated with evangelical Christian groups with strong views on LGBT marriage and women's rights.  So it's funny, you know, the reason why Redford was able to have the PCs pull ahead at the last minute in the last election to win over Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party, was because of one Wildrose candidate named Huntsberger who also had strong views on gays.  So now where is the media calling out Dirks?  Heck, where are the current PC supporters who cried a fowl of Huntsberger, but now silent on one of their own?  Quite convenient, I'd say. Hypocrites on the other hand.

And wait! I should make that three cabinet ministers without a riding.  Can't forget about Jim Prentice himself as premier, can we?  Yes, I understand that's how this stuff works sometimes, but he's now also appointed himself as aboriginal relations minister, because you know, that's what he did in the federal government, so it's okay then, I guess.

Why is this important to mention?  Is it a big deal?  If the premier doesn't call an election soon, then essentially we have unelected people running the government who cannot be held to account by the opposition caucuses in the legislature because they are not members of the legislature.

Yes, this is a much smaller cabinet than Redford's, but let's not forget that the majority of the ministers were in the previous government too and most importantly THAT THEY ARE ALL FROM THE SAME SCANDAL-RIDDEN PARTY!

I also can't wait to hear what is dug up from the past when David Dorwood ran against Stephen Mandel for mayor of Edmonton. You know, his new fellow cabinet member?  I'm guessing something about tax and spend, oh and Dorwood wanting to keep the municipal airport open where Mandel had council already made the decision to close it.  I wonder what Dorwood thinks about all the new big towers going up in Edmonton because the airport was closed to allow for taller towers.  I wonder.

Then there's Prentice himself, who left some questions behind for us when he was a minister in the Harper government.  He now announces that the government jets are for sale to supposedly end the culture of entitlement.

I hope more facts and questions come to light for voters to see that this government is not under new management by any means.  For 43 years we've been duped into believing this zebra has changed its stripes, or that this pig's lipstick new colour all of sudden makes the pig different.

For you hard or soft NDP supporters, progressives from the liberals, disenfranchised PCs, or Alberta Party-goers, you have a real chance to hold the balance of power next election.  Admit that the NDP has been the only real stable progressive choice and that they have a home for you now under Brian Mason, and especially when Rachel Notley wins their leadership race.  There's no home for you in the PCs anymore, unless you ignore the numerous scandals, and their turncoat blatant disrespect for teachers and public employees. Don't forget that.  Stop voting PC already.

After 43 years, no matter who the leader is now, next election, it's time for us all to move forward without them and vote them out.

Or in the case of our new show "The APPrentice" - we need to tell them "you're fired".

Albertans deserve better.



   

Redford will introduce new taxes

Alison Redford said she "will do whatever it takes" to ensure the Alberta gov't is not so dependent upon the rollercoaster ride of resource revenues.

Then I see her on TV saying she'd rather not reintroduce health care premiums (re: a tax) and instead go after doctors who get paid 29% more on average than doctors in other provinces.  Yet the negotiations between the Alberta Medical Association and the gov't continue.  So let's blame the doctors and not your own bloated gov't.

Alberta provincial spending is the highest in the country (next to Newfoundland and Labrador).  The health care bureaucracy, let alone the government itself, is bloated and wasteful.  The Premier and her cabinet have not set a good example either, with the high expenses claims on trips.

Folks, we're being set up.  They've been in a deficit for many years and this year will be in well over $3 billion.  Mark my words, they WILL introduce a sales tax.  Every year, they toy with the idea and put a floating trial balloon out in the media to hear the response.

And you know what they'll do?  They'll say "We've listened to Albertans and they said it's time we had a sales tax, so we're not so dependent on resource revenues."

The thing is folks, they just can't say they've listened.  By law, they actually have no choice but to hold a referendum introduced by a cabinet member.  Spread the word.  Don't be fooled.

Here's the Act:
http://www.qp.alberta.ca/documents/Acts/A36.pdf

PreambleWHEREAS the people of Alberta want to maintain the Alberta Advantage;
WHEREAS Alberta is the only province in Canada that does not have a general provincial sales tax;
WHEREAS a general provincial sales tax is not a desirable tax; and WHEREAS the opinion of the people of Alberta should be obtained directly before any legislation that levies a general provincial sales tax is introduced;
THEREFORE HER MAJESTY, by and with the advice and consent of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta, enacts as follows:

Referendum required1 A member of the Executive Council may introduce in the Legislative Assembly a Bill that imposes a general provincial sales tax only if, before the introduction of the Bill, the Chief Electoral Officer announces the result  if a referendum conducted under this Act on a question that relates to the imposition of the tax.
1995 cA-37.8 s1

Holding a referendum2 The Lieutenant Governor in Council may order the holding of a referendum that relates to the imposition of a general provincial sales tax.
1995 cA-37.8 s2

Question to be asked3 The question or questions to be put to the electors at a referendum held under this Act shall be determined by a resolution of the Legislative Assembly on the motion of a member of the Executive Council.
1995 cA-37.8 s3

h/t to Joe Albertan

UPDATE:
It appears the opposition, particularly Danielle Smith (Wildrose) and Brian Mason (NDP) are definitely on top of things here.

Smith is basically saying exactly what I'm saying that the PCs are "softening us up for sales tax".

And Brian Mason is exactly correct:

NDP Leader Brian Mason said his party would oppose any move to a sales tax or resurrection of health care premiums.
He said they are regressive taxes that punish the low and middle income Albertans.
“we’re very much opposed to a sales tax and always have been, and I don’t think Albertans will accept that sort of solution.”
Mason also criticized the premier for linking the negotiations with the province’s doctors to the province’s consideration of bringing back the so-called health care premiums that raised nearly $1 billion annually for taxpayers.“It’s not the doctors’ fault. It’s not the teachers’’ fault. It’s not Albertans’ fault,” Mason said. “It’s the government’s fault that we’re in this mess.”

Alison Redford to be new Alberta premier

While at a wedding cocktail reception on Saturday, several friends kept asking me what the results were as I was glued to my Twitter feed on my phone.  As the results came in and they were at half the polls reporting, I said she was going to win due to the inability for Gary Mar to get passed 45% and that Redford would get two-thirds of Doug Horner's second ballot choices.  It was still close, and when Mar pulled ahead by 5-6%, he still couldn't penetrate even 45%, I was pretty sure she'd win at that point.  On Twitter, Dave Rutherford was the first out of the gate stating her victory based on his sources.


Final Tally
37,101 (51.11%) Redford
35,491 (48.89%) Mar

Well, I will admit that I voted for her and Horner 2nd.  I voted for her for three reasons.  I watched the debate on Wednesday and was impressed with her strength and felt of the three candidates, she would best represent Alberta, but maybe not ideologically.  Secondly, I didn't want Mar to win as his ethics are questionable, and thirdly, Redford is said to be a liberal-progressive, which splits the PCs and is a win for Danielle Smith, who'd I'd prefer as premier.  Now, a lot more conservatives potentially will leave the PCs for the Wildrose Party, but only if Smith and Co. can prove themselves as a viable alternative.

An indication of that is only 78,176 members turned out to vote Saturday, which was an increase from the first ballot vote two weeks prior, but it is a large decrease from the 144,000 that voted in 2006 which saw Ed Stelmach shoot up the middle to win.  That's a big vacuum.

Despite all that, Redford is a relative unknown to many conservatives and I believe Albertans for the most part, will give her a shot to see what she can and cannot do.  It will be difficult for the Wildrose to paint her in a bad light while the honeymoon is on, and I thought the press release from Danielle Smith congratulating Redford on her win while slamming her when she hasn't had a chance to govern yet was in bad form.

The fall session was to start October 25th, but Redford has postponed it, a budget, and a potential election until the spring.  The Wildrose is not happy with this, but while I took a tour of the Legislature building yesterday, the tour guide apologized for the state of the Assembly Chamber itself.  I took the picture below from the public gallery to show all the scaffolding they must use to change the 600 lightbulbs to energy-saving ones as they cannot fit a scissor-lift through the doors.  As well, they are painting.  I don't see them finishing and cleaning up by October 25th.  Whether that's the reason, I really don't know, but found it interesting and coincidental under the circumstances.

As we began our tour, media were on hand, waiting for someone, and I thought perhaps she would be there.  But alas, it was Raj Sherman, newly elected Alberta Liberal leader.

Even though I voted for her, this blog, and I'm sure many others of the conservative-bent, will watch her every move over the next while.  She'd be smart to introduce some conservative policies to keep that camp involved in her party, especially on dumbing-down or scrapping the Alberta Human Rights Commission, but her promise to restore $100 million to education for teachers within a couple weeks seems bold and decisive, but in reality, it seems like a bit of a stretch to accomplish.  If she does it, you'll note it is without any budgetary debate, which indicates to me, not much will really change with the way the PCs govern.

I remember just a week and a half ago when I saw her at an Edmonton downtown lounge sitting and having a conversation with a man, possibly an advisor.  I thought to go up to her and wish her luck, but I didn't, because who knew at that point she'd ever become our premier.

But she did.

(Photo courtesy of The Toronto Star)

Doug Griffiths now at the teet

Last place candidate Doug Griffiths, who last week questioned the integrity of the Mar campaign buying memberships and selling them at advanced polls, is now right at his teet.

Yep, sounds like all these folks are lining up for cabinet posts and plum jobs.

I now won't be voting on Oct. 1 on the final ballot.  There's no one to vote for in this lame party and it's obvious who'll win.  Or I might go and write Danielle Smith on the ballot.  It's not illegal to destroy or defame a party ballot as far as I know.

Anyone know if anything's happening to anyone who released the list to the media and to Environics polling?  My guess is nothing will happen.  And with that, I will also be requesting the PC party take my name off their lists and I will be ripping up my membership, maybe right after I put the ballot in the box.

So long Regressive Wrongservative party.

Premier Mar and health care

The Twitterverse is reporting that in a few minutes (4:30pm MDT) Ted Morton and Rick Orman will be throwing their support behind Gary Mar, essentially swallowing up the "Conservative" part of the PC party.  This will be enough to crown Mar as premier.

Gary Mar has been touting private health care delivery solutions and I do commend him for saying that.  It's nothing new though.  But I just don't see any big "change" with this party.

If I was Gary Mar, I'd catch the other parties off-guard and call an election for November.  The Wildrose has no money, the Liberals have a brand new leader and no money, the NDP never have money but have finally figured out how to concentrate their efforts in a few ridings, and the Alberta Party, while it has a leader, can you remember his name, because I forgot, and the party itself hasn't really resonated to a wider audience. 

Mar will win with over 60 seats, the Wildrose will be opposition with a dozen seats, and the Liberals will remain or drop a seat or two as it splits votes with the Alberta Party and NDP.  The NDP might be able to ride the Jack Layton wave and gain another seat or two, but with former leader Ray Martin going against Sue Huff, former interim-leader of the Alberta Party, it'll be the race to watch how the progressives split votes.

This election will be all about health care.  With Mar touting private delivery, Danielle Smith calling for a more European approach with a competitive hybrid, Raj Sherman calling for management reform, the NDP calling for more money, and the Alberta Party, although their "common sense" should dictate that private delivery is needed, they'll want to keep it totally public.

It will be an interesting and lively debate.  All the leaders are well spoken.  But with Mar's private health care, I think it's possible that a chunk of "progressives" in the PCs jump ship to the Alberta Party.  And if the Alberta Party was smart, they'd take advantage of that.

Alberta PC leadership - 1st round

Saturday I sat at home debating whether to vote in this leadership race although I do not support the PC Party.  I ran some errands to fill in the day and drove by the Oliver Community League where the polling station was.  I parked and walked to the door and then had a strong feeling that I should turn around.  Then I said to myself, "You get to pick who you think would make the best premier."  So I entered and was quickly greeted by a volunteer.  I didn't have a $5 membership so I bought one in mostly quarters--coinage I'd never use and so I wouldn't waste a perfectly good $5 bill.

At that moment though I thought, "What are you doing? You can't stand this party and yet you have a membership now?"  Then the volunteer interrupted the thought and told me to take my membership and voting card to the desk and then to get a ballot.

I knew going in who'd I vote for.  Rick Orman--essentially the closest candidate to being an outsider in this race and a self-professed libertarian.  Unfortunately, his campaign never took hold

Why not Morton this time like last time for me?  I think most of us libertarian-conservative type folks had the same feeling about him.  As provincial treasurer, he saw the largest deficits in Alberta history.  To me, this simply shows a lack of leadership, and just following the party line.  Morton's biggest blunder was becoming treasurer in the first place instead of staying on the outside perhaps as it highlighted his "unconservativeness".  When a conservative stops being conservative, they lose support fast.  And in Ted's case, that's exactly what happened.

For Doug Griffiths, the relatively young MLA was smart to enter this race to keep his profile up.

So now onto the top three, if it's really even that; it's more like top one with scraps now.

With Mr. Integrity Gary Mar at 41%, sweeping Edmonton, will the remaining Redford and Horner campaigns abandon him as their second choice?  Will Horner garner the swift support of new Edmonton voters and Northern Alberta like Ed Stelmach did?  Ed had 15% and won so it's not out of the question but that was because Jim Dinning and Ted Morton were polarized enough and both from Southern Alberta to invigorate Edmonton and Northern folks to buy a membership and mark an "X" for Steady Eddie.

While most true conservatives and libertarians have already abandoned the PCs, where will those remaining park their support on the run off vote October 1st?  My bet is on Alison Redford or no one.

So now if there ever was a clear choice for libertarian-conservatives, it's certainly with Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party.  That is, if the party gets better organized and more media attention.  As I said to the National Post last month, it's not ready for prime-time governing, but a successful stint as official opposition, and being able to raise some real cash, the possibility of governing in say 2015 is not out of the question, if not as a serious challenge to the PCs.

Forty years with the same party in power is not healthy for any democracy.  I urge Albertans to vote for anyone but the PCs in the upcoming election.  Even if you're a soft PC supporter, you'll be doing the province a favour.

In the meantime, I'll be debating whether I'll be voting in the final run-off vote on October 1st. 

Alberta PC leadership race - Southpark version

It's been a while since I've done this, but here we go!

Doug Griffiths

 Rick Orman

 Doug Horner

 Alison Redford

 

Gary Mar  

 Ted Morton

  

 Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, hoping Albertans choose none of the above

Premier Ed Stelmach on his way out...

Alberta poll: PCs 54%, WR 16%...

Zoiks!

PCs at 54%
Wildrose at 16%
Liberals at 13.5%
NDP at 13.5%
Alberta Party at 2%
Undecided at 19%

It is summer and these numbers don't mean much, but the media and bloggers are dumping on Danielle Smith and the Wildrose for "plummeting".  That's what happens when you peak way too soon.

When Danielle went through a honeymoon period, the Wildrose was tops.  Mind you, Ed Stelmach was still intending to be leader and premier.  Since he's stepping down, the numbers have changed.  And now the PCs are currently in a leadership race, drawing support and attention.  I've always felt that the best the Wildrose can do in next year's election is official opposition somewhere at 10-18 seats.  But even now that seems difficult.  The problem is that the party touted itself as grassroots but had a top down management style as well, which ticked off a lot of riding associations and soft supporters.

"Hey, but the Liberals are in a leadership race too, why aren't their numbers up like the PCs?"  Because really, no one really cares about that race, other than maybe Raj Shermann.

The NDP haven't moved much.  And the Alberta Party?  Well, not much to say really.  Each will get 1-3 seats next time.

Anyway, when the PCs pick their leader, that's when a new poll will mean something, whether it's Gary Mar, Ted Morton, or Rick Orman vs. Danielle Smith, it'll really depend on how they're perceived ideologically.  For Danielle, the further left the PCs go with a leader, the better off she and the Wildrose are.

Edmonton downtown arena funding

Mayor Mandel and Premier Stelmach are meeting today to discuss funding for the new downtown Edmonton arena to host the Oilers, along with a casino, hotel, bars, restaurants and a whole entertainment area.

The project is $100 million short.

Mandel wants the province to kick in.  Stelmach's right for not just handing the money over, but the tax revenue generated from alcohol taxes alone (especially in this town) will eventually make up the amount.

Or why not a loan?  Wait, the province doesn't exactly have a good history with Oilers owners and loans, do they?

Or, here's another idea from Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith.

The leader of the Wildrose Alliance is saying "no" to the idea of tax hikes to help pay for a new arena in downtown Edmonton, but Danielle Smith has an idea of her own.

Smith is proposing a special lottery to help raise money for what would be the new home of the Oilers. Progressive Conservative Party leadership hopefuls Ted Morton and Alison Redford have both suggested that the province could help by raising sales taxes, even by just 1%.

Smith says under her plan, "interested Albertans" could buy tickets, with proceeds going towards arena construction. The City of Edmonton has a framework deal in place with the Katz Group, but the sides are still about $100 million short on funds.

Shame on Morton and Redford for their stupid tax idea.  Why should folks in Calgary pay for an Edmonton arena?  Is that their solution going forward to fund any new project?  Raise taxes?  I thought Morton was smarter than that.  Guess not.  Now I have no idea why I supported him when he ran for the PC leadership years ago.  I'm certainly not supporting him now.  (I haven't decided yet, but if I were to choose, Rick Orman is now on my radar although the PCs have completely lost my support.)

Anyway... a lottery?  A simple yet effective idea.  While I'm not sure it would generate enough revenue to make up the entire amount, it wouldn't hurt either.  I'd buy a $50 ticket.  Why?  Because I want a new arena downtown.  Those who don't want an arena, don't have to buy one. 

Leadership races

Hey, now that Will and Kate have completed their Canadian journey, did you know that the Alberta PC Party is having a leadership race?  Did you even know that Premier Ed Stelmach is stepping down this fall sometime?  Do you know that the PC Party has been the governing party in Alberta for 40 years?   Well, it's all true!

Can you name all the candidates?  Can you name three?  Does it matter who wins?

Oh and did you know the Alberta Liberals are having a leadership race too?  Does anyone care?  Who's running?

Well, there are a lot of candidates.  Seems everyone wants to be premier these days.  And don't forget about Danielle Smith from the Wildrose Party (they dropped the Alliance part).  Oh and the new (old) Alberta Party has a leader too but I forget his name.  I know he's the mayor of Hinton though.  Then there's the old vet, Brian Mason of the NDP.

More importantly, did you know that the pub near the Leg. that Alberta MLAs frequent is no longer in operation?  It's true.  A month ago, Martini's Pub and Grill, a staple neighbourhood pub on 109 Street and 99 Avenue, one of my favourite establishments, closed its doors after a bazillion years in business.

I know, I'm not happy about it either.

Now Ted Morton resigns...

In a smart move, Alberta Finance Minister has resigned from the PC cabinet.  When Morton runs for the leadership, he now won't be bogged down by another deficit budget (not that previous ones won't haunt him).

Apparently, he had a two hour meeting with Ed Stelmach.  I won't bother speculating what transpired.

Isn't this all kind of reminding you of another party that had a spat between the leader and the finance minister?

So with that, I predict the now former finance minister will win the leadership, be premier for a bit, then win the ensuing election, but with a minority.  Then in the election after that, he'll lose to a more fiscally oriented minority government.  Sorry Danielle, that means 2016 at the earliest.

Or who the heck knows at this point.

Ed Stelmach won't seek re-election

Everyone is quite shocked today to hear of Premier Ed Stelmach's pending resignation.  I know I am.  I actually admired his quiet, yet ruthless approach to politics, but as readers of my blog know, although he was my 2nd choice on the PC leadership ballot, it wasn't soon after, save a few good cabinet ministers, I stopped supporting this directionless, anti-fun, anti-libertarian government.

Now, with another PC leadership race to begin, who will the candidates be?  And once he or she becomes premier, when will the election be?  Ed said 2012 but indicated his successor is not bound by that.  Will we then have to wait until 2013 as mandated by law?

Potential candidates (well, why not start the speculation?):

• Ted Morton (current finance minister) -- How many on his former team have jumped to the Wildrose Alliance?  Will Wildrose folks buy memberships and support or stop him considering that he is strongly considering running against Wildrose leader Danielle Smith?  If you ask me, a former Morton supporter, I'd probably stop him in his tracks.  I have disliked his tenure as finance minister.  So to begin, I'd like to mention that Ted was born in the U.S.
  
  
• Jim Dinning (former finance minister) -- As the dauphin from the last race which he lost the vote to Ed, would he give it another go?  How many in the current PC party are supporting him?  I'm also wondering if this is where the pressure on Ed to step down originated from... just like it happened when Ralph Klein got a lower than expected approval rating by his own party.
  
  
• Dave Hancock (current education minister) -- Well respected by the remaining 'progressive' side, would he siphon the potential Alberta Party supporters?
  
  
• Monte Solberg (former federal Conservative Party cabinet minister) -- Just throwing a name out there being that I told him face-to-face that he should run and he didn't balk.  I know I'd be torn between the Wildrose and the PCs if Monte were in the game.
  
• Jim Prentice (former federal Conservative Party cabinet minister) -- After recently resigning as MP in Calgary, would he take a run provincially?  I think this is less likely, but I've heard rumours.

Other questions and speculation...

In the new fledgling Alberta Party, could we have Dave Taylor, latest independent MLA and former Liberal leadership candidate running and winning that party's leadership?  I also guess that Raj Sherman will join.  Then, will the Liberal party then implode?  If the next election isn't until 2013, that buys the the AP time to their advantage.  Could they pull votes from the NDP as well?

Speaking of the NDP ... my guess is that this will be Brian Mason's last go of it and it's obvious that Rachel Notley will take the reigns from there.  But will it be too late?  Will all the 'progressives' from the Liberals and NDP support the Alberta Party (which has good momentum now)?

But let's ask, will the PCs implode?  Not likely, but they were directionless before, so with a lame duck leader, will they care to make decisions at all?   The PCs have lost MLAs to the Wildrose Alliance, so the question is will the Alberta Party draw PC votes as well?   Even I considered supporting the Alberta Liberals if Dave Taylor won the leadership.

You see where I'm going with this?  I think this all bodes well for Danielle Smith, whose party Ed directly attacked today. 

With THREE viable parties on the centre-left, and a weak PC party, will they split the vote?  You betcha!

Not too long ago, I predicted the Wildrose would get maybe 12-18 seats in a 2012 election.

That just doubled, at least.

That is if Wildrose and Alberta Party supporters play this smart, they should buy PC memberships and vote in droves for the least electable candidate. 

Then it'll be a former media personality showdown between Danielle Smith vs. Dave Taylor.  Now THAT combination would be an interesting debate.

Edmonton civic election 2010 results

Ok, here are my thoughts on the results...

Am I disappointed that David Dorward didn't win the mayor's chair?  Nope.  I think he would have been a good mayor, but I didn't think he'd win in the first place which is why I didn't lift a finger.

Am I angry that Stephen Mandel is still our mayor?  No.  He hasn't done a terrible job, and has improved since three years ago, but as I've said, my vote for Dorward was in protest to the poor manner in which the airport decision was made.

Am I disappointed that Jane Batty won in Ward 6 and is still on council?  Yep.  It's going to take a really strong candidate to beat her but there is potential in three years.  She seems to win without trying and goes on incumbent name recognition.

Am I pleased that new guy Kerry Diotte won in Ward 11?  Oh hells ya.  This is really the only shining light in this election.  Kerry ran an excellent campaign, picked the right ward with no incumbents, and was energized with a good team of volunteers.

Am I pleased that voter turnout increased and was near what I predicted at 35%?  Yep.  The airport issue really helped.  But I hope in the next three years that any future major decisions which greatly affected thousands of Edmontonians is put to a plebiscite

In Calgary, am I shocked that, Naheed Nenshi, a Muslim won the mayor's chair?  I could care less what religion he professes and wonders why so many people are yapping about this fact.  He simply had the best ideas and most thorough policy platform.

And now here's an issue barely anyone is talking about except for Wildrose Alliance Party leader Danielle Smith...

Was I really really really disappointed that there was not a senate election?  You bet ya.  Thanks to Ed Stelmach, we didn't have one, especially when we have a prime minister who would have appointed any newly elected senators.  The existing senator-elects all wanted another election as it's been six years since the last one.  They seem to support democracy, unlike others.  Not sure what the PCs are so afraid of.

In summary, as you were my fellow Edmontonians.  Nothing's really changed but continue to be engaged in setting the direction of our exciting, growing city.

Now back to cheering on the Oilers...

Wildrose snaps up two Tories

The Wildrose Alliance Party of Alberta, led by newly elected leader Danielle Smith, had only one member, Paul Hinman, elected in the Alberta Legislature in a recent Calgary byelection.  The latest poll shows the party, not just slightly ahead, but far ahead (39%) of the PCs (25%) and Liberals (25%).

Now the latest news as part of this momentum is two PC MLAs have crossed the floor to the Wildrose Alliance--Heather Forsyth and Rob Anderson.

Now with three members in caucus, they are now ahead of the NDP and have achieved official party status, meaning they'll get more questions in Question Period, and a budget.

Not long ago, there were rumours that up to ten PC MLAs were thinking of crossing the floor to the Wildrose.  To be honest, I'm surprised that even two switched allegiances as the Wildrose still has a ways to go to build all 82 riding associations and nominate good candidates.

For example, if the Wildrose puts in an inexperienced student who did no campaigning as their candidate in my riding, as they did last time, and the PCs put forth one that is not as good as they had last time, I don't know who I'd vote for.

That said, there's no doubt that the Wildrose and Danielle Smith continue to gain momentum in proportion to the Ed Stelmach Tories decline in support, not just from voters, but from within his own party.

Danielle Smith continues to chip away at Ed's party, raising doubt amongst PC supporters.  Question is, how much further can this continue to happen?  If it continues, then this could be the dramatic Alberta political shift that happens every 30-35 years or so where a new party comes in and wins and wins and wins.  I don't think we're there yet, but it's sure going to be interesting if it happens.

Southpark Alliance

Danielle Smith, leader, Wildrose Alliance Party

whose now polling higher in Calgary than this guy's party ...

	Alberta	Calgary	Edmonton	Rural
PC	34	30	33	38
WA	30	34	17	32
Lib	20	20	27	15
ND	9	8	13	n/a

The Environics survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 times out of 100. In the regional breakdowns, the margin of error is 6.2 percentage points in the major cities and 5.6 for elsewhere.

Wildrose Alliance takes Calgary-Glenmore

37% - HINMAN, PAUL (WAP)
34% - ROBERTS, AVALON (Lib)
24% - COLLEY-URQUHART, DIANE (PC)

The Elections Alberta results are here.

Can't say I wasn't surprised. People all around Alberta are not happy with Ed's PCs. Ed is a decent man, but his gov't for the most part is still a throwback to Ralph's days. This PC party is tired and although voters gave Ed and Co. a chance to govern, he's blowing it with deficits, a mean health care minister in Ron Leipert, booze tax (which was repealed by Ed but prices didn't drop), and now weird cutbacks to health and education, and breaking a contract with the Alberta Teachers Association? They have no direction and no vision.

Enter Paul Hinman.. again. Paul's a smart guy and will be a needed voice in the legislature... again.

But what this does is most certainly draws attention to the Wildrose Alliance leadership race which takes place on October 17th, 2009. The membership cutoff is October 2 and ballots will be mailed out or you can attend the convention.

The Wildrose Alliance Party Leadership Convention is being held on Saturday, October 17, 2009, 9:00 am - 11:00 pm at the Holiday Inn Convention Centre, 4520 - 76 Ave., Edmonton.

If I'm in town, I might just pop in and see what all the fuss is about.

Leadership candidates' websites:

• Mark Dyrholm
• Danielle Smith
• Jeff Willerton

I like Danielle's the best and will be paying close attention to her campaign. As I'm sure, many former PC folks will too.