Alberta PC leadership - 1st round

Saturday I sat at home debating whether to vote in this leadership race although I do not support the PC Party.  I ran some errands to fill in the day and drove by the Oliver Community League where the polling station was.  I parked and walked to the door and then had a strong feeling that I should turn around.  Then I said to myself, "You get to pick who you think would make the best premier."  So I entered and was quickly greeted by a volunteer.  I didn't have a $5 membership so I bought one in mostly quarters--coinage I'd never use and so I wouldn't waste a perfectly good $5 bill.

At that moment though I thought, "What are you doing? You can't stand this party and yet you have a membership now?"  Then the volunteer interrupted the thought and told me to take my membership and voting card to the desk and then to get a ballot.

I knew going in who'd I vote for.  Rick Orman--essentially the closest candidate to being an outsider in this race and a self-professed libertarian.  Unfortunately, his campaign never took hold

Why not Morton this time like last time for me?  I think most of us libertarian-conservative type folks had the same feeling about him.  As provincial treasurer, he saw the largest deficits in Alberta history.  To me, this simply shows a lack of leadership, and just following the party line.  Morton's biggest blunder was becoming treasurer in the first place instead of staying on the outside perhaps as it highlighted his "unconservativeness".  When a conservative stops being conservative, they lose support fast.  And in Ted's case, that's exactly what happened.

For Doug Griffiths, the relatively young MLA was smart to enter this race to keep his profile up.

So now onto the top three, if it's really even that; it's more like top one with scraps now.

With Mr. Integrity Gary Mar at 41%, sweeping Edmonton, will the remaining Redford and Horner campaigns abandon him as their second choice?  Will Horner garner the swift support of new Edmonton voters and Northern Alberta like Ed Stelmach did?  Ed had 15% and won so it's not out of the question but that was because Jim Dinning and Ted Morton were polarized enough and both from Southern Alberta to invigorate Edmonton and Northern folks to buy a membership and mark an "X" for Steady Eddie.

While most true conservatives and libertarians have already abandoned the PCs, where will those remaining park their support on the run off vote October 1st?  My bet is on Alison Redford or no one.

So now if there ever was a clear choice for libertarian-conservatives, it's certainly with Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party.  That is, if the party gets better organized and more media attention.  As I said to the National Post last month, it's not ready for prime-time governing, but a successful stint as official opposition, and being able to raise some real cash, the possibility of governing in say 2015 is not out of the question, if not as a serious challenge to the PCs.

Forty years with the same party in power is not healthy for any democracy.  I urge Albertans to vote for anyone but the PCs in the upcoming election.  Even if you're a soft PC supporter, you'll be doing the province a favour.

In the meantime, I'll be debating whether I'll be voting in the final run-off vote on October 1st. 

Alberta PC leadership race - Southpark version

It's been a while since I've done this, but here we go!

Doug Griffiths

 Rick Orman

 Doug Horner

 Alison Redford

 

Gary Mar  

 Ted Morton

  

 Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, hoping Albertans choose none of the above

Premier Ed Stelmach on his way out...

Quoted in the National Post

In today's National Post, yours truly was quoted by journalist Kathryn Blaze Carlson on my views of  Alberta politics--particularly the PC leadership race.

“Everyone knows this is a chance to select the next premier, and people want to be involved in that process — I know a lot of NDP and Liberal voters who will [buy a Tory membership so they can cast a ballot],” said Mike Bayrak, an Edmonton-based blogger who was involved in Progressive Conservative campaigns until he became disenchanted with the party’s direction.

 “I used to be a Morton supporter, but I haven’t been impressed with him while he was finance minister and I disagree with his position on the Edmonton arena,” said Mr. Bayrak, who says his views today align with the Wildrose, a party he said is not quite ready for prime-time. “I like Orman’s libertarian stance, which is something he talks about often knowing it appeals to the Wildrose.”

Oh, yeah, by the way, my name is Mike Bayrak--I've never mentioned that on this blog before, and will likely stay that way.  I'm an Edmontonian and not involved in any provincial political party, and as you know, I describe myself as a libertarian conservative--economically slightly right of centre (I distaste private or public monopolies), and socially quite libertarian. 

The Wildrose Party most closely fits with my views and will likely vote for the candidate in my riding this time as she seems connected with the community (just tried to find her info on the Wildrose.ca website but couldn't!).  Sure I said they're "not fit for prime-time", and by that I mean, while there are some shining stars as candidates, some are not, and so I see them as possibly the official opposition, which will be good for them to gain more legislative experience and work out the kinks so they're fit to govern.  The party is going through growing pains trying to find the balance between grassroots and pragmatism.

Do I hope they become government in 2016?  You bet.  Why?  I don't see the PC party really changing, regardless of who leads it, which means the government won't either and after 40 years, it's about time.

Like the federal Liberals, the PC Party of Alberta needs to implode and find itself because I don't believe it has any sense of direction or vision, which is dangerous for a party that's actually governing this great province as we speak.

Alberta poll: PCs 54%, WR 16%...

Zoiks!

PCs at 54%
Wildrose at 16%
Liberals at 13.5%
NDP at 13.5%
Alberta Party at 2%
Undecided at 19%

It is summer and these numbers don't mean much, but the media and bloggers are dumping on Danielle Smith and the Wildrose for "plummeting".  That's what happens when you peak way too soon.

When Danielle went through a honeymoon period, the Wildrose was tops.  Mind you, Ed Stelmach was still intending to be leader and premier.  Since he's stepping down, the numbers have changed.  And now the PCs are currently in a leadership race, drawing support and attention.  I've always felt that the best the Wildrose can do in next year's election is official opposition somewhere at 10-18 seats.  But even now that seems difficult.  The problem is that the party touted itself as grassroots but had a top down management style as well, which ticked off a lot of riding associations and soft supporters.

"Hey, but the Liberals are in a leadership race too, why aren't their numbers up like the PCs?"  Because really, no one really cares about that race, other than maybe Raj Shermann.

The NDP haven't moved much.  And the Alberta Party?  Well, not much to say really.  Each will get 1-3 seats next time.

Anyway, when the PCs pick their leader, that's when a new poll will mean something, whether it's Gary Mar, Ted Morton, or Rick Orman vs. Danielle Smith, it'll really depend on how they're perceived ideologically.  For Danielle, the further left the PCs go with a leader, the better off she and the Wildrose are.

Edmonton downtown arena funding

Mayor Mandel and Premier Stelmach are meeting today to discuss funding for the new downtown Edmonton arena to host the Oilers, along with a casino, hotel, bars, restaurants and a whole entertainment area.

The project is $100 million short.

Mandel wants the province to kick in.  Stelmach's right for not just handing the money over, but the tax revenue generated from alcohol taxes alone (especially in this town) will eventually make up the amount.

Or why not a loan?  Wait, the province doesn't exactly have a good history with Oilers owners and loans, do they?

Or, here's another idea from Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith.

The leader of the Wildrose Alliance is saying "no" to the idea of tax hikes to help pay for a new arena in downtown Edmonton, but Danielle Smith has an idea of her own.

Smith is proposing a special lottery to help raise money for what would be the new home of the Oilers. Progressive Conservative Party leadership hopefuls Ted Morton and Alison Redford have both suggested that the province could help by raising sales taxes, even by just 1%.

Smith says under her plan, "interested Albertans" could buy tickets, with proceeds going towards arena construction. The City of Edmonton has a framework deal in place with the Katz Group, but the sides are still about $100 million short on funds.

Shame on Morton and Redford for their stupid tax idea.  Why should folks in Calgary pay for an Edmonton arena?  Is that their solution going forward to fund any new project?  Raise taxes?  I thought Morton was smarter than that.  Guess not.  Now I have no idea why I supported him when he ran for the PC leadership years ago.  I'm certainly not supporting him now.  (I haven't decided yet, but if I were to choose, Rick Orman is now on my radar although the PCs have completely lost my support.)

Anyway... a lottery?  A simple yet effective idea.  While I'm not sure it would generate enough revenue to make up the entire amount, it wouldn't hurt either.  I'd buy a $50 ticket.  Why?  Because I want a new arena downtown.  Those who don't want an arena, don't have to buy one. 

Now Ted Morton resigns...

In a smart move, Alberta Finance Minister has resigned from the PC cabinet.  When Morton runs for the leadership, he now won't be bogged down by another deficit budget (not that previous ones won't haunt him).

Apparently, he had a two hour meeting with Ed Stelmach.  I won't bother speculating what transpired.

Isn't this all kind of reminding you of another party that had a spat between the leader and the finance minister?

So with that, I predict the now former finance minister will win the leadership, be premier for a bit, then win the ensuing election, but with a minority.  Then in the election after that, he'll lose to a more fiscally oriented minority government.  Sorry Danielle, that means 2016 at the earliest.

Or who the heck knows at this point.

Ed Stelmach won't seek re-election

Everyone is quite shocked today to hear of Premier Ed Stelmach's pending resignation.  I know I am.  I actually admired his quiet, yet ruthless approach to politics, but as readers of my blog know, although he was my 2nd choice on the PC leadership ballot, it wasn't soon after, save a few good cabinet ministers, I stopped supporting this directionless, anti-fun, anti-libertarian government.

Now, with another PC leadership race to begin, who will the candidates be?  And once he or she becomes premier, when will the election be?  Ed said 2012 but indicated his successor is not bound by that.  Will we then have to wait until 2013 as mandated by law?

Potential candidates (well, why not start the speculation?):

• Ted Morton (current finance minister) -- How many on his former team have jumped to the Wildrose Alliance?  Will Wildrose folks buy memberships and support or stop him considering that he is strongly considering running against Wildrose leader Danielle Smith?  If you ask me, a former Morton supporter, I'd probably stop him in his tracks.  I have disliked his tenure as finance minister.  So to begin, I'd like to mention that Ted was born in the U.S.
  
  
• Jim Dinning (former finance minister) -- As the dauphin from the last race which he lost the vote to Ed, would he give it another go?  How many in the current PC party are supporting him?  I'm also wondering if this is where the pressure on Ed to step down originated from... just like it happened when Ralph Klein got a lower than expected approval rating by his own party.
  
  
• Dave Hancock (current education minister) -- Well respected by the remaining 'progressive' side, would he siphon the potential Alberta Party supporters?
  
  
• Monte Solberg (former federal Conservative Party cabinet minister) -- Just throwing a name out there being that I told him face-to-face that he should run and he didn't balk.  I know I'd be torn between the Wildrose and the PCs if Monte were in the game.
  
• Jim Prentice (former federal Conservative Party cabinet minister) -- After recently resigning as MP in Calgary, would he take a run provincially?  I think this is less likely, but I've heard rumours.

Other questions and speculation...

In the new fledgling Alberta Party, could we have Dave Taylor, latest independent MLA and former Liberal leadership candidate running and winning that party's leadership?  I also guess that Raj Sherman will join.  Then, will the Liberal party then implode?  If the next election isn't until 2013, that buys the the AP time to their advantage.  Could they pull votes from the NDP as well?

Speaking of the NDP ... my guess is that this will be Brian Mason's last go of it and it's obvious that Rachel Notley will take the reigns from there.  But will it be too late?  Will all the 'progressives' from the Liberals and NDP support the Alberta Party (which has good momentum now)?

But let's ask, will the PCs implode?  Not likely, but they were directionless before, so with a lame duck leader, will they care to make decisions at all?   The PCs have lost MLAs to the Wildrose Alliance, so the question is will the Alberta Party draw PC votes as well?   Even I considered supporting the Alberta Liberals if Dave Taylor won the leadership.

You see where I'm going with this?  I think this all bodes well for Danielle Smith, whose party Ed directly attacked today. 

With THREE viable parties on the centre-left, and a weak PC party, will they split the vote?  You betcha!

Not too long ago, I predicted the Wildrose would get maybe 12-18 seats in a 2012 election.

That just doubled, at least.

That is if Wildrose and Alberta Party supporters play this smart, they should buy PC memberships and vote in droves for the least electable candidate. 

Then it'll be a former media personality showdown between Danielle Smith vs. Dave Taylor.  Now THAT combination would be an interesting debate.

History of Canadian Senate Reform (with comparisons to Australia)

After reading today that the Australian senate has blocked a gov't bill on implementing a "Cap and Trade" system, here is an excellent paper I stumbled upon that I strongly recommend about the detailed history of Canadian senate reform with comparisons to the Australian model.

As a proud Albertan, Canadian senate reform has always been one of my most contentious issues and so I am always interested in hearing and reading people's opinions about it.


The paper was written by Hon. Dr. Ted Morton, a former professor of political science, senate candidate in Alberta, former Alberta PC leadership candidate (whom I voted for), and current Alberta government Minister for Sustainable Resource Development. 

The paper provides a thorough understanding of the Australian parliamentary system, notably their senate, and outlines the several attempts at senate reform in Canada, and the reasons for it--usually spurred on by Western alienation in Canada, but halted by the need to appease Quebec. 

Dr. Morton also mentions that because of the lack of an elected Canadian senate, the voice of minority rights  are heard through challenges in the Supreme Court referring to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Whereas in Australia, with their lack of such a Charter, minority rights are heard through their elected regional senators as members of minor political parties can be elected through their proportional representative single-transferrable ballot system. 


I learned a lot from the paper and Dr. Morton's opinions on and reasons for senate reform in Canada exactly match with my own.  I'm not a big fan of the P.R. system in voting for the lower house as popular as it is with minor parties like the NDP and Greens, but applying it to the upper house as Australia does now interests me.

So with that, I believe Canadians should look strongly at the Australian system as a model for our own. 

Australian Senate
Number of states, territories:  6, 2
Senators per state, territory:  12, 2
Total senators:  76
Half of state senators elected every 6 years
All territory senators elected every 3 years
Senators can hold cabinet positions in gov't.


Read more on the Australian system here.

More on why not to raise the drinking age

Like with most contraband, you limit it by law and it goes underground. Something that's taboo becomes an exciting novelty. There really isn't a lot of binge drinking going on amongst the 18 year old crowd on campuses and in the fraternity houses. How do I know? I was 18, then soon in a fraternity, and a responsible adult, learning from mistakes early on.

And there's a professor guy who agrees. h/t to Vitor for this study...

"McCardell thinks that, on campuses, a drinking age of 21 infantilizes students, encouraging immature behavior with alcohol and disrespect for law generally. Furthermore, an ``enforcement only'' policy makes school administrations adversaries of students and interferes with their attempts to acquaint students with pertinent information, such as the neurological effects of alcohol on young brains. He notes that 18-year-olds have a right to marry, adopt children, serve as legal guardians for minors, purchase firearms from authorized dealers, and are trusted with the vote and military responsibilities. So, he says, it is not unreasonable to think that they can, with proper preparation, be trusted to drink."

Perhaps this is why when a group of us Albertan Canadians would go to the U.S. at 21, we were also able to not only handle our alcohol much better than Americans, due to already having 3 years experience, we were more responsible with it because we knew the consequences already. I even noticed a difference between the 19 year olds in Alberta compared to BC where the legal age is 19.

Why do I keep posting about this subject? Well, the Alberta government is looking into it and in my opinion, if implemented, the law would fly in the face of freedom, as a continued war against fun. So I ask Ted Morton (someone whom I supported in the PC leadership race actually), is there a study on drinking problems "in the high schools"? Because I haven't heard or known there was one.