Monday, April 11, 2011

Debates and outcome scenarios

I think all the debates comes down to is not really how Harper performs--he'll be his usual self.  It comes down to Iggy and if undecideds get comfortable with him and trust him.  Tough to do. Harper needs to be careful not to attack his personal history, but his numerous flip flops on policy.

You'll also notice that the Conservatives have been laying pretty low during this election and not trying to draw attention to themselves. Reminds me of Ralph Klein's election in 2004.  That said, the media attention has been quite negative on Harper and quite biasedly positive on Iggy.  Voter turnout will be low low low and the fewer that show up, that means there's less desire for change.  Conservative base is loyal as hell and the GOTV (Get Out The Vote) machine for the Conservatives is well oiled --- I've been a part of it and it's actually a lot of fun.

Polls are averaging out with about 153 CPC seats to 71 LPC.  If Harper survives the debate and even ties with Iggy, 

That said, closer to election day, watch Liberal numbers go up a couple points to 32 and maybe 33.  But that support won't be stolen from Harper, it's NDP and Greens.  NDP might get wiped out down to low 20's.  The Liberals have basically stolen NDP policy.  Makes me wonder if there isn't some secret plan to show that both parties are more similar than some think--all designed to setup the Coalition Gov't.

Why else would the Liberals cancel their June convention?  The NDP and CPC didn't.  Liberals are going to lose and at their conventions, after an election loss, the Liberals MUST vote on whether to keep Iggy around as leader.  But, if he becomes PM in a coalition, there is no need for a convention, right?

So anyone can get caught up in the mire of mini-scandals from both parties (Liberals are throwing stones at glass houses), but this election's main issue is simply:  do you want a majority or a coalition gov't?

With Iggy's approval and trust ratings at such a low level comparatively with Harper and Layton, Canadians will not accept Iggy as their PM.

A Conservative minority will result in a constitutional crisis again.  The Liberals and Dippers know that if it a minority, they're not voting for the same budget, which Flaherty said he'd table again.  Then the power turns to the Bloc.  If the budget gets voted down AGAIN, then the GG has to decide:
  1. if we're going to have yet ANOTHER election, which Harper would win in a landslide because (see Dief in the 60's) as my bet is Canadians are sick of this
  2. if the coalition should govern instead, while legal, most Canadians don't want to accept Iggy as PM
  3. if he refuses the coalition and tells them to get along with Harper for a while then may accept another election.
Like I said, the debates are important, and it's Iggy's big chance to shine. Will Canadians be even watching?


Anonymous said...

Umm... where do you get the idea the media is being biased in favour of Ignatieff? I've barely heard the contempt motion, the fact that Harper tried to hide the costs of several bills or even the 2006 in and out scandal mentioned in the last week. If the media actually did their job they'd probably be more critical of Harper, not less.

Anonymous said...

Contempt motion? You mean when the 3 amigos banded together to vote down the Govt to force an election for them to form a coalition?The only contempt I hear of is the one Candians have against Ignatieff/Layton/Duceppe and the media. New poll today...
The coalition agreement is in effect till June 30th. If I was PM Harper, I would ask the rats to sign a legal document, during the debates, that they won't form a coalition after the election.Iggy said he wouldn't. Paint him as the true liar that he is.

Anonymous said...

Just another smear to reflect away from the fact ignatieff lied again about his voting practices. He said he voted in the John Kerry election. Then he said he wasn't a citizen and couldn't vote but he voted in Britian...and then he said he voted in Canada but couldn't remember when. He's full of it. He supports a candidate who believes sexual assult against women is okay. He has another one who says Natives are lazy featherheads.
The elections Canada refunds is in the courts...The Conservatives won the first court case and lost the second(same Liberal judges who ruled in favor of Omar Khadar) and its still in court. The Block party are the godfathers of the in and out and the Libs and NDP did the same thing,except Maynard looked the other way. He's another Kevin Page Liberal HACK. Check the internet...its all there. Just more media and back room corrupt Liberano$ looking to get Liberan$ back at the gravey train. Not going to happen.

Anonymous said...

It’s a bit rich for Michael Ignatieff to be talking about the creditbility of election platforms and why he wants to change the channel.It has been days since Michael Ignatieff released his election platform. Here are the major uncosted items:

• HST funding for Quebec (Cost — $2.2 billion)

• New Champlain Bridge (Cost — $1 billion according to Ignatieff)

• Arenas for professional sports (Cost — unknown. The Quebec City arena is estimated at $400 million. How many more arenas is he planning to build/fund?)

• Pharmacare (Cost — Estimated at between $6.6 and $10.3 billion by 2006 Federal-Provincial study)

• High speed rail (Cost — $18 billion for a Quebec City-Windsor route according to 1995 study. Obviously the cost would be much more in 2011 dollars)

Michael Ignatieff has made at least $28 billion in uncosted spending promises in this campaign, even before the costs of his arena program are factored in. He has no credibility on the numbers; or the economy.”

Oops they missed the cap and trade estimated at 33 billion in the green partys platform and thats not including the NDP AND BLOCK spending. Iggy, is just in it for himself....just visiting. Big phoney a$$

Blame Crash said...

The bigger question should be "which" Liberals had the June convention cancelled. The answer to that question would be “the same undemocratic scoundrels who were able to subvert democracy and have their puppet installed as leader”.

The reason why “they” don’t want a convention is because “they” don’t need one. It’s “their” party now. All the “little Russians” are of no importance to them

“They” know that their Liberal Party sycophants will do and think what they’re told because if they had any cojones in the first place, “they” wouldn’t have gotten away with it in the first place.

Besides, they have the Toronto media as their Palace Guards.

Such is the state of democracy in the Liberal Party.

This is why we need a Conservative majority. The alternative will lead us into a world of pain.