Thursday, September 26, 2019

Why an Ontario political party should not help federally and vice versa

The article below shows how Ontarians provincial election results continue to massively affect the next federal election.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/exclusive-poll-reveals-doug-ford-factor-a-big-problem-for-scheers-conservatives-in-ontario

Look at the history, particularly post-WWII.

Provincially, the majority of Ontarians will vote in the next election for the other party that is not in power federally about 86% of the time.

Federally, the majority of Ontarians will vote for the other party that is not in power provincially about 65% of the time, which is what appears will happen on October 21, 2019 federally as the article above certainly indicates that the majority of Ontarians will vote for the federal Liberals over the provincial PCs.

So I continue to wonder why a federal party would help their provincial cousins in Ontario knowing they are going against history a large majority of the time and vice versa.

If anything, they should remain quiet, stay far away, and hope they lose.


Here’s the list..

Ontario Canada Ontarians balance provincially? Ontarians balance federally?
1940 Liberal Liberal
1941 Liberal Liberal
1942 Liberal Liberal
1943 PC Liberal Y
1944 PC Liberal
1945 PC Liberal Y Y
1946 PC Liberal
1947 PC Liberal
1948 PC Liberal Y
1949 PC Liberal Y
1950 PC Liberal
1951 PC Liberal Y
1952 PC Liberal
1953 PC Liberal Y
1954 PC Liberal
1955 PC Liberal Y
1956 PC Liberal
1957 PC PC N
1958 PC PC N
1959 PC PC N
1960 PC PC
1961 PC PC
1962 PC PC N
1963 PC Liberal Y Y
1964 PC Liberal
1965 PC Liberal Y
1966 PC Liberal
1967 PC Liberal Y
1968 PC Liberal Y
1969 PC Liberal
1970 PC Liberal
1971 PC Liberal Y
1972 PC Liberal Y
1973 PC Liberal
1974 PC Liberal Y
1975 PC Liberal Y
1976 PC Liberal
1977 PC Liberal Y
1978 PC Liberal
1979 PC PC N
1980 PC Liberal Y
1981 PC Liberal Y
1982 PC Liberal
1983 PC Liberal
1984 PC PC N
1985 PC PC N
1986 PC PC
1987 Liberal PC Y
1988 Liberal PC Y
1989 Liberal PC
1990 NDP PC Y
1991 NDP PC
1992 NDP PC
1993 NDP Liberal N
1994 NDP Liberal
1995 PC Liberal Y
1996 PC Liberal
1997 PC Liberal Y
1998 PC Liberal
1999 PC Liberal Y
2000 PC Liberal Y
2001 PC Liberal
2002 PC Liberal
2003 Liberal Liberal N
2004 Liberal Liberal N
2005 Liberal Liberal
2006 Liberal Conservative Y
2007 Liberal Conservative Y
2008 Liberal Conservative Y
2009 Liberal Conservative
2010 Liberal Conservative
2011 Liberal Conservative Y Y
2012 Liberal Conservative
2013 Liberal Conservative
2014 Liberal Conservative Y
2015 Liberal Liberal N
2016 Liberal Liberal
2017 Liberal Liberal
2018 PC Liberal Y
2019 PC ?
19 15
22 23
0.863636364 0.652173913