Women leading in Alberta...

With PC leader Ed Stelmach eventually resigning, Alberta Liberal leader David Swann stepping down today and everyone turning their eyes on NDP leader Brian Mason to follow suit, think about this scenario of current and potential political party leaders in Alberta...

PCs -- Allison Redford
Liberals -- Laurie Blakeman
Wildrose Alliance -- Danielle Smith (current)
New Democrats -- Rachel Notley
Alberta Party -- Sue Huff (interim)

Kinda interesting don't ya think?  Refreshing I'd say.

h/t: Doug Main via Facebook

Now Ted Morton resigns...

In a smart move, Alberta Finance Minister has resigned from the PC cabinet.  When Morton runs for the leadership, he now won't be bogged down by another deficit budget (not that previous ones won't haunt him).

Apparently, he had a two hour meeting with Ed Stelmach.  I won't bother speculating what transpired.

Isn't this all kind of reminding you of another party that had a spat between the leader and the finance minister?

So with that, I predict the now former finance minister will win the leadership, be premier for a bit, then win the ensuing election, but with a minority.  Then in the election after that, he'll lose to a more fiscally oriented minority government.  Sorry Danielle, that means 2016 at the earliest.

Or who the heck knows at this point.

Wildrose snaps up two Tories

The Wildrose Alliance Party of Alberta, led by newly elected leader Danielle Smith, had only one member, Paul Hinman, elected in the Alberta Legislature in a recent Calgary byelection.  The latest poll shows the party, not just slightly ahead, but far ahead (39%) of the PCs (25%) and Liberals (25%).

Now the latest news as part of this momentum is two PC MLAs have crossed the floor to the Wildrose Alliance--Heather Forsyth and Rob Anderson.

Now with three members in caucus, they are now ahead of the NDP and have achieved official party status, meaning they'll get more questions in Question Period, and a budget.

Not long ago, there were rumours that up to ten PC MLAs were thinking of crossing the floor to the Wildrose.  To be honest, I'm surprised that even two switched allegiances as the Wildrose still has a ways to go to build all 82 riding associations and nominate good candidates.

For example, if the Wildrose puts in an inexperienced student who did no campaigning as their candidate in my riding, as they did last time, and the PCs put forth one that is not as good as they had last time, I don't know who I'd vote for.

That said, there's no doubt that the Wildrose and Danielle Smith continue to gain momentum in proportion to the Ed Stelmach Tories decline in support, not just from voters, but from within his own party.

Danielle Smith continues to chip away at Ed's party, raising doubt amongst PC supporters.  Question is, how much further can this continue to happen?  If it continues, then this could be the dramatic Alberta political shift that happens every 30-35 years or so where a new party comes in and wins and wins and wins.  I don't think we're there yet, but it's sure going to be interesting if it happens.

WRAP warps into first

In a recent poll, the Wildrose Alliance Party of Alberta is now way out in front of Ed's PCs, who are now tied with Swann's Liberals.

39% Wildrose
25% PC
25% Liberal
 9% NDP

h/t daveberta

If I was Danielle Smith, I would ignore this poll.  There's still much to be done in the party to build it into a strong, disciplined organization.  They don't even have 87 constituency associations setup yet, let alone a sound, prioritized policy platform.  They have a long way to go yet, especially funding.  My sources tell me they lost some potential big donations due to a lack of judgment by hiring Stephen Carter who posted a derogatory comment on Twitter about Premier Ed Stelmach's speech.

Besides that, from my cheap seats, I read that Smith recently spoke about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) being a myth (very bold of her), and appears to be buddy-buddy with the energy and oil industry (a good thing in this province).

It's obvious that Alberta conservatives are simply not happy with the PCs and are merely parking their vote to the Wildrose in protest.  Or are they simply impressed with Danielle over Ed as an articulate spokesperson for Albertans?

Is there also a deeper issue in government democracy, accountability, and transparency?  Perhaps. Everyone knows how secretive and tight the PC caucus is.

So the questions remain...

1) Will Danielle Smith be able to harness Alberta conservative frustration of the PC government and continue the momentum she apparently has?

2) From this, will the party attract quality candidates?

3) Will they be able to raise enough funds to run a credible campaign?

Time will tell.

Southpark Alliance

Danielle Smith, leader, Wildrose Alliance Party

whose now polling higher in Calgary than this guy's party ...

	Alberta	Calgary	Edmonton	Rural
PC	34	30	33	38
WA	30	34	17	32
Lib	20	20	27	15
ND	9	8	13	n/a

The Environics survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 95 times out of 100. In the regional breakdowns, the margin of error is 6.2 percentage points in the major cities and 5.6 for elsewhere.

Wildrose Alliance takes Calgary-Glenmore

37% - HINMAN, PAUL (WAP)
34% - ROBERTS, AVALON (Lib)
24% - COLLEY-URQUHART, DIANE (PC)

The Elections Alberta results are here.

Can't say I wasn't surprised. People all around Alberta are not happy with Ed's PCs. Ed is a decent man, but his gov't for the most part is still a throwback to Ralph's days. This PC party is tired and although voters gave Ed and Co. a chance to govern, he's blowing it with deficits, a mean health care minister in Ron Leipert, booze tax (which was repealed by Ed but prices didn't drop), and now weird cutbacks to health and education, and breaking a contract with the Alberta Teachers Association? They have no direction and no vision.

Enter Paul Hinman.. again. Paul's a smart guy and will be a needed voice in the legislature... again.

But what this does is most certainly draws attention to the Wildrose Alliance leadership race which takes place on October 17th, 2009. The membership cutoff is October 2 and ballots will be mailed out or you can attend the convention.

The Wildrose Alliance Party Leadership Convention is being held on Saturday, October 17, 2009, 9:00 am - 11:00 pm at the Holiday Inn Convention Centre, 4520 - 76 Ave., Edmonton.

If I'm in town, I might just pop in and see what all the fuss is about.

Leadership candidates' websites:

• Mark Dyrholm
• Danielle Smith
• Jeff Willerton

I like Danielle's the best and will be paying close attention to her campaign. As I'm sure, many former PC folks will too.