O'Toole learned, MacKay didn't

 #cdnpoli #cpcldr

Erin O'Toole, the newly elected Conservative Party leader, learned from his last run that he needed to play more hardball.  In that previous race not long ago, O'Toole came across as a more progressive conservative and didn't get the support or attention compared initially to Kevin O'Leary, Maxime Bernier, or Andrew Scheer.  

What's perplexing is Peter MacKay used to play hardball. But that was when he won the Progressive Conservative leadership in 2003 when he signed a promise on a napkin to candidate David Orchard that he wouldn't merge the PCs with the newly-led Stephen Harper's Canadian Alliance.

PC leadership 2003

You'll recall that race 17 years ago, was one of the last convention-style leadership elections with delegates. The results:

1st ballot:  MacKay 41.1%, Orchard 24.3%, Jim Prentice 18.2%, Scott Brison 16.4%, Craig Chandler 0% (endorsed Prentice)

2nd ballot:  MacKay 39.7%, Orchard 24.1%, Jim Prentice 18.2%, Scott Brison 18.0%

3rd ballot:  MacKay 45.0%, Orchard 24.6%, Jim Prentice 30.4%, Scott Brison (endorsed Prentice)

4th ballot:  MacKay 64.8%, Orchard (endorsed MacKay), Jim Prentice 35.2%

The result was later that year, the two conservative parties merged with the Canadian Alliance members voting by mail with 96% in favour, and for the PCs, a quick riding by riding phone-in blitz.  A leadership race ensued, MacKay sat it out, and Harper won over MacKay's future girlfriend and then Liberal floor-crosser, Belinda Stronach.  Harper would go on to lose to Paul Martin's Liberals, albeit a minority government.  But then because of Adscam prominent in voters minds and a poor Liberal campaign run by strategists David Herle and Scott Reid, Harper won a couple minority governments, one against Stephane Dion.  He'd eventually win his "strong stable majority Conservative government" against Michael Ignatieff with a strong NDP showing as its first time as official opposition by the late great Jack Layton. About a decade of Harper as Prime Minister, until Justin Trudeau came along.

CPC 2020

For MacKay in 2020, there appeared to be an overconfidence in his campaign, almost passive in thinking it was an anointment, and shows that having the majority of caucus support doesn't always guarantee a win.  Stephen Harper never campaigned like that.

From the start this leadership race, pandemic aside, nearly out of the gate, when asked whether he'd march in pride parades, Erin O'Toole's answer was basically "if first-responders are allowed, then yes" where MacKay simply said yes.  That set the tone early-on and drew lines in the sand and sent a signal to the other candidate supporters that he's listening.

Did the pandemic affect Peter MacKay's chance of winning?  I don't think so. The candidates were already in full-swing and members had an idea who they're first choice was. It was the second and third choices that were really in play after that. Or were they?

On that, leadership candidate Dr. Leslyn Lewis made a strong impact on 2nd and 3rd ballot choices as there was more time for the membership to get to know her and what she stood for.  She ran a very reputable campaign that garnered much respect and attention. She actually had the most votes on the 2nd ballot but not points--meaning she didn't have enough broad national support (more on that).  She plans to run for MP again.  As a way to draw attention to a local candidacy, running for leadership certainly helps.

Social Conservatism

With O'Toole winning, people I know who are more liberal in their views said they were disappointed in the results as they would have voted for Peter MacKay's Conservatives.  They're tired of Trudeau's public and private ethics violations.  They see O'Toole's win as a unification, albeit a party take-over by social conservatives.  

Perhaps.  If you look at O'Toole's voting record in the House of Commons and what he's said, he's really not a true social conservative and the Campaign Life Coalition certainly does not support him.  But his campaign made it seem to the Sloan and Lewis social conservatives that there was no room for them in a Peter MacKay-led Conservative Party, but there was in his.  And that's all it really seemed to take.

Canadian conservatives are an enigma in politics. I've been following it intensely for 30 years and have been at some of its historical moments.  Some conservatives can't stand it when Liberals win, but some accept it.  But when they do win, it's only when they are united, despite the vast divisions socially, and that takes having an ear to both sides.

Wexit

Beyond the social ideology, there is an eminent threat from the Wexit Western Canada and Alberta separatists led by former Harper cabinet minister and government house leader, Jay Hill.  Will O'Toole be able to appease them or will they remain a small faction, as is usual with blurts of western separatism?  

I think if he doesn't fan the flames and ensures Wexit doesn't grow, they won't split votes with the Conservatives, there's nothing to worry about.  Peter MacKay's first ballot third place showing in Alberta may indicate that if he won, Wexit would have more teeth.  With Erin O'Toole winning, we haven't heard anything in the past few days from Wexit.

Quebec

Then there's Quebec--which, like Andrew Scheer did in pandering to the dairy industry, those ridings put O'Toole over the top. Conservative membership continues to wane in Quebec and membership numbers have dropped--likely because there wasn't a candidate from there and the four candidates in the race did not have their French-speaking up to snuff.   Further, with many ridings having fewer than 100 members, giving a single vote far more sway there than in every populated Alberta riding.  MacKay had the backing of most of the Quebec caucus, yet they just didn't deliver for him.

Uniting conservatives of different shades under a big blue tent is never an easy task.  You can't shun or not listen to Western alienation. You can't shun or not listen to social conservatives.  You can't shun or not listen to progressives.

Stephen Harper knew how to do just that and why he was so successful at the party-level, and nationally as well.  But he had unifying conservative policies that all stripes could get behind. 

It seems Erin O'Toole learned.  We'll see if this translates nationally.

Alberta election-eve 2015

 #abvote #abpoli
 It really is beginning to look a lot like Christmas for the NDP.

The Wildrose, originally optimistic, have failed to be the once expected default anti-PC vote, despite a calm campaign with short directed policy messages.  Few know who Brian Jean really is, although a 4 year MP for the Conservatives in the Ft. Mac region, his last minute leadership ignition didn't have enough juice to maintain momentum from an initial high polling spot.  Government is not in reach for Jean, but an official opposition status within an NDP minority is their best outcome. That said, quite the turnaround for a party that was almost written off after Danielle Smith and company jumped ship to the PCs, only to be burned in the end.  At least it looks like they will recover.

Now, while the PCs continue to dig deep into the well of fear, with big corporatism fueling the fire on threats to hold back children's charitable donations to maintain the bottom line over NDP tax increases while they hypocritically turn around and donate to the PCs, a big thud was heard amongst pissed-off voters causing a further backfire upon the PC entitlement machine.

Contrast that with the calm, caring, and likable Rachel Notley.

So while these corporate executives tied to the 44 year long-governing PCs fire off grenades of fear and doom and gloom scenarios coupled with PostMedia dictating to its newspapers to endorse the PCs in editorials, added to the not-forgotten Redford expense scandals, contracting favours and backroom deals, these events still continue to burn brightly in the minds of voters.

And with that, it's ironic that Rachel's father, Grant Notley, who tragically died long ago as NDP leader, that his spirit along with Jack Layton's somehow appear to have a stronger influence on this campaign than actual living corporate executives, the thousands of dollars buying the vote, and Jim Prentice's own living campaign.

So, lest we forget, the immortal last words of Jack:

“My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world.”

He's right. At least for Alberta NDP supporters anyway.

Vote on May 5th.  And it's true, don't let others decide for you.  

____________

*Image courtesy of Laird Books: http://www.lairdbooks.com/?page=shop/flypage&product_id=24370

Alberta leaders' TV debate is the PCs last hope

TV dominates politics because it is the prime-time news and political ads that stream into our homes which grab our attention.  Radio, newspaper, and even outdoor signs combined don't have the same total effect that a well-orchestrated TV ad message can have on a campaign.

The Internet, now with video ads, has had to a degree, a similar effect, but people are generally annoyed with Internet advertising and tend to look away.  We generally do not "go on the Internet" together as a couple or family.  The Internet is a personal medium experience.

Not TV, it's there when we commit to watching it. That's all there is on the screen for the whole family to see.  We've learned to expect it for 60 years.  And TV shows and advertising is about emotion and so is politics.  You know the sappy ads that pull at your heart strings and cause you to choke up?  Well, for many, they do, and it's mighty powerful.

So how a leader performs in a TV debate can be a campaign game-changer.  It is a glimpse of how the ongoing legislative question period and debate would go, but more importantly, how the leader is perceived emotionally by the view, breaking it down to a simple question:  How does the leader make you feel?

You could have a leader with a 180 IQ and Mensa member who has done all the advanced statistics and understanding on how to build a perfect society, but if they have the emotional and social capability of an inanimate object, you're not buying it.  You're not in, because you don't have that emotional connection--a bond and common understanding where you can trust the leader to know that he or she represents you.

Emotion trumps ideology in most circumstances.  Oh sure, voters have their political views and beliefs and they will attach those views to a tree if the tree had the same view, but this is where emotion is added to ideology and it's even more powerful.  I know people who have a certain strong ideology but will vote for the individual that, while they don't necessarily fit with their view. They just simply believe the person is the best representative for the job and who will actually lead.

One of my favourite quotes is from the movie "The American President" starring Michael Douglas, Martin Sheen, and Michael J. Fox.

Lewis Rothschild: You have a deeper love of this country than any man I've ever known. And I want to know what it says to you that in the past seven weeks, 59% of Americans have begun to question your patriotism.

President Andrew Shepherd: Look, if the people want to listen to-...

Lewis Rothschild: They don't have a choice! Bob Rumson is the only one doing the talking! People want leadership, Mr. President, and in the absence of genuine leadership, they'll listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership. They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand.

President Andrew Shepherd: Lewis, we've had presidents who were beloved, who couldn't find a coherent sentence with two hands and a flashlight. People don't drink the sand because they're thirsty. They drink the sand because they don't know the difference.

Remind you of a certain former premier?

And so here we are today, in probably Alberta's most important party leadership debate in my lifetime.

As such, Albertans are searching for leadership--a leader who won't stab them in the back and who is offering reasonably-sounding solutions.  The details and effectiveness of those solutions are up for continued debate, but if the leader can present even a coherent sentence that makes sense, doesn't turn them off, and it's coupled with some emotion, that voter can be swayed.

What the majority of voters are looking for in this one is any reason whatsoever to not for the Prentice PCs.  Any little mistake or flip flop is amplified for Prentice and in tracking this election, I would say it isn't going particularly well.  Prentice has the uphill climb to overcome this hurdle because voters on both sides are fed up.  They don't like the recent provincial budget, as much as it's being sold as an honest one.  It's riddled with tax hikes on average Albertans--tax hikes, which conservatives can't stand, but it doesn't raise corporate taxes, which progressives can't stand.

Prentice called the election, violating the election-timing law that was put in place. He also knew all the other parties funds were depleted, especially the Wildrose including a fresh leader, with the Liberals having an interim. However, the NDP's Rachel Notley, who's well-respected father led the party in the 80's, has had some time to get her campaign ready and you have to admit, absolutely the best run campaign. There's no doubt who's winning the sign war in Edmonton. So methinks Prentice forgot about that, and possibly dismissing the NDP's chances of actually winning gov't.

The progressives that were once on the Alison Redford's train and the traditional liberals have left the PC station and have flocked to Rachel Notley.  They are not finding Prentice to be "that guy" they can trust, or progressive, even so far as disagreeing with the tax hikes on the middle and lower class.

And Conservatives in general are abandoning the PCs ... again.  Even a chunk of the traditional PC base has dipped them well below 30% in the polls and that's worth noting, especially trailing third overall.

But with that, conservatives and economic libertarians are going to watch with great intention to see if Wildrose leader Brian Jean can be everything trustworthy-wise Danielle Smith was not.  Any emotional glimpse that he actually can put a coherent sentence together without making any bonehead comments and he can be elevated.  Problem is, the Wildrose didn't field enough candidates province-wide.

With less than two weeks to go to Cinco de Mayo, the time has come for the PCs to pull another one out of their ass with a last ditch effort to put fear into their base to come home instead of running away.  The meeting with the old school campaign bankrollers to fund a TV ad blitz has probably already happened and as the other parties can't afford such a campaign, you will see every desperate attempt to woo voters back to the PCs and instill emotional fear into those who are on the fence with ads featuring Prentice selling you on it.

With that, coupled with tonight's leadership debate, the emotions that are stirred by the leaders will determine whether it's the end of the PCs 44 year dynasty or if they survive another day, and that is significant for Albertans to watch.

Why?  Because it's good TV.

Alberta Election 2015 - Campaign ratings on Day 3

Just being a casual observer of this election on TV and online, here are my impressions of the various party campaigns thus far and their plus/minus rating.  Then I'll aggregate them at the end of each week and the campaign as a whole.

PC - Jim Prentice's election campaign launch basically insulted anyone as extremists who didn't support them.  He also said they are not the party of the status quo.  Uh, riiiight. And see below. 
PC -3.

Alberta Party - The slogan "Choose Alberta's Future" was displayed at Prentice's launch and the .ca and .com domain names were then quickly swiped up by the Alberta Party.
AP +1.

NDP - They just released their first major policy plank on providing 10% of funds up to $50k to businesses who hire an employee in Alberta.  This is the recently elapsed job's program implemented by...?  Harper.
NDP +2.

Wildrose - I haven't heard or seen anything.  Maybe that's a good thing.  Just sit there and be a conservative protest vote.  You can't do that too long though or the NDP might just usurp all the good policies! People need to know who Brian Jean is.
WP +/- 0.

UPDATE:  Brian Jean comes out with a plan to balance the books in three years by cutting public sector jobs in middle management (not front line workers) without raising taxes.
WP +2.

Liberals - Well-known journalist Graham Thompson says it would take a miracle of biblical proportions for the Liberals to get a dozen seats.  And I don't usually associate the Liberals with the Bible, do you?
LP -1.

Polls released showing the Wildrose in the lead, NDP sweeping Edmonton and making in-roads in Calgary, then the PCs.  Say, what?  As it stands, it's a Wildrose minority with a possible NDP official opposition.  But anything can change day to day here.

+2 NDP
+2 WP
+1 AP
-1 LP
-3 PC

Alberta Election 2015

As I type this, Apprentice Premier Jim Prentice is about to drop the writ and call an election.

As the Alberta PCs continue to reinvent themselves after almost 44 years in power, let's just say this election will be a referendum on the recent budget, coupled with distant memories of former Premier Alison Redford's failed leadership.

For those that got duped into thinking Prentice was a right-of-centre conservative (Danielle Smith et al., I'm looking in your direction), this budget proved otherwise--downloading the burden of total mismanagement, frivolous expenses, and massive, unaccounted spending onto the hard working middle class.  The other provincial governments who have raised taxes on its citizens have not taxed, nor spent their way out of deficit and debt.

As much as Prentice's initial tough-talk on cutting spending, we see a measly 0.7% cut, where taxes on an average family are now up by well over $2000/year.  So much for the federal tax cuts.  Gax tax increase of 4 cents alone will raise the price of everything due to shipping and transport.

But we know all this.

What we don't know is the level of impact the other parties will have in making a dent into the PC juggernaut.  A party that, in the last election, two weeks before the vote, called in a desperate plea to the backroom corporate trough for funds, coupled with Danielle Smith's mishandling of the Huntsberger scandal, led to Redford's win.  I have shown that old PC voters who didn't show up for Ed Stelmach, came out this time to support their old party.

The NDP have a full slate of candidates with more than half of them women.  Rachel Notley has done a fantastic job since becoming leader and in her measured resolve, has pushed out positive messaging to garner support, even from conservatives who dream of an effective opposition once again.  So much so is her support, a recent poll shows the NDP sweeping Edmonton.  As I told Deron Belous, NDP MLA for Beverly, the NDP can potentially hold the balance of power in a minority PC gov't.  It might just happen, folks.

The Liberals are essentially leaderless with former leader David Swann taking the interim helm.  Save a few stalwart seats, like Laurie Blakeman's in Edmonton Centre, the weakened, decimated Alberta Liberals will most certainly fall below the NDP, and possibly the Alberta Party.

The Alberta Party led by Greg Clark needs to concentrate its energy on a few ridings to at least get into the picture.  Failing that with a weak Liberal Party, terrible PC budget, and a bloodied Wildrose, if they don't get at least one seat, this project can simply be deemed a failure.

The remnants of the Wildrose Party, now led by former federal Conservative MP Brian Jean, was recently shown in a poll as tied with the PCs.  This gave much hope and fire for the embattled opposition party.  Conservatives I've spoken to who felt abandoned and disenchanted, appear to be leaning back to the Wildrose with Jean (a.k.a. someone who is a respected conservative) as the leader.  Jean has put up a $100,000 bond to guarantee he won't cross the floor, ever.  He made a Wildrose candidate resign for inappropriate comments overheard on stage at Jean's victory party.

Question is, will the Wildrose be able to raise enough funds to fight this fight for measured TV, radio, and newspaper ads to pull at the emotions of pissed-off middle class Albertans so much so to at least a protest 'No' vote on the recent budget.  In my opinion, that's all they need to do.  Their funds were recently completely depleted in the failed by-elections late last year, so it's an uphill climb, but it needs to happen now.

The PCs didn't raise corporate taxes.  That oughta be enough fodder for big oil to donate to and thank Prentice for fancy ads to sucker voters into giving them yet another term because the other parties are weak. With former president of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta, Jim McCormick, resigning from the board of directors, this is an indication that things are not well within the party.

Keeping the PCs below 35% of the total vote should be enough to put them into a minority situation.

Forty-four years is enough.  Don't let it be 48.  If there's ever been a time for change, this really has to be it.

The Prentice Budget and the Fall of Danielle Smith

I cannot find one single person online who was disappointed that Danielle Smith lost her PC nomination bid in Highwood to Carrie Fischer.  Not one.

This, after the biggest combined tax hike and deficit in Alberta's history in a terrible budget that puts blame, as Apprentice Premier Prentice puts it, on Albertans that voted in the PCs year after year, when the party and government completely failed to "look in the mirror" themselves and admit they're the ones who have mismanaged and misspent the very tax dollars they want more of.

Sad how that floor crossing exodus by Smith and her ilk depleted the official opposition to four seats, believing that Jim Prentice was a true conservative, when clearly that is not the case--a progressive red liberal if anything, which is what many of us who've followed Prentice for years know that is what his real stripe is.

Sad how a text exchange with reporter Vassy Kapelos from Global and subsequent apology (which I won't repeat here) became Smith's last known parting note as a politician, after those years of trying to portray herself as an articulate rural Albertan woman that would one day become premier.

Sad how her biggest mistake, as many pundits and bloggers put it, was in the last provincial election where when it looked like a Wildrose victory, an old online post from candidate Huntsburger about gays was outed and trotted.  Right there, Smith should have dismissed his candidacy, but instead defended his right to have these views.  Coupled with a last minute plea to former PC big donors, the Wildrose only hit the mid-teens, crowning Alison Redford as the new preem, who soon later, was pushed out of her own party, leaving the door open for Jim Prentice.

Sad how a premier, who has no mandate from voters, with virtually no opposition, can simply raise taxes without having it actually passed in the legislature first.

Happy that NDP leader Rachel Notley's calm, professional approach toward getting her message out with mass door knockings and online video spots is connecting with Albertans, even conservative ones who believe in a strong opposition.  I mean, come on, even the NDP wouldn't have hiked taxes like this!

What of the Wildrose, the once real government in waiting?

Enter Brian Jean, former Ft. McMurray Conservative MP, who, just hours before Smith lost her bid, took her place as leader of the Wildrose.  Likely more invigorated than ever due to the recent high tax budget, the Wildrose felt like they were onto something and perhaps back in the saddle.

But whoa there!  Just as Brian Jean was celebrating his win on stage with party supporters, recent Wildrose nominee Bill Jarvis was overheard on stage over the room microphone in a massive gaffe saying they needed a couple more brown people in front.  Despite his quick apology, and likely a bad joke, even swifter was new leader Brian Jean in making Jarvis resign.  Unlike Smith with Huntsburger, it appears Jean won't make that big mistake again.  That said, the hillbilly damage reared its head again in the Wildrose, despite other similar gaffes by PC MLAs and PC candidate probes in recent memory.

In another swift move, Jean also put up a $100,000 retainer that he would never cross the floor. It's an interesting gesture that puts those questions to rest.  But, the other question out there is how Jean's own company donated $10,000 to the PCs.  Whether that decision was in his control is a business matter, but that hefty donation alone also points out the dire need for Alberta's political donation laws to emulate the federal model, and badly.

The Wildrose have a steep hill to climb to gain the trust of the once seemingly strong conservative supporters and to win back social libertarians, which despite Alberta's supposed redneck image, clearly dominate the landscape.  I'm hearing many well-respected folks supported Brian Jean, but admit it, 99% of Albertans don't have a clue who he is.

Now that I'm hearing rumours that a provincial election will be called today if not soon, the Wildrose would be lucky to gain official opposition status from the NDP, who may very well double their seats from 4 to 8.  But still, a government in waiting, or even fully effective opposition, this does not make!

Sad how I'm hearing people say, "I'll vote PC because there's no one else to vote for?"  Really?  You really have to ask yourself if you agree with this budget, how corporate political donations prop up the PCs in their favour, and if it's good for democracy having the same party in power for 44 years, among hundreds of other arguments.

But the main argument is this. A government and this PC party in particular require a strong opposition or this province will continue to be mismanaged by absolute power that has corrupted absolutely.

Don't be swayed by a premier and party the way Danielle Smith was.  How she thought their policies lined up with hers and wooed her over, the official opposition leader nonetheless, only to find she didn't have the support she thought she had.

Such is the fall of Danielle Smith.

And such is the fall of Alberta politics.

The APPrentice - PC Alberta version

CALGARY SUN PHOTO -- 2009/03/27 -- Alberta environment minister Jim Prentice listens to Attorney General Alison Redford as she speaks to media in the Calgary Remand Centre gymnasium on Friday, March 27. Government officials were officially announcing legislation aimed at reducing 'credit for time served'
Lyle Aspinall/Sun Media

We now have a new rookie premier.  Next provincial election, we should all have our own version of the show "The Apprentice" called "The APPrentice" or "Alberta PC Prentice".

The PC Party of Alberta, amidst expense scandal after scandal under the Redford regime, in order to change its wool for the third time, felt that steamrolling a former federal Conservative cabinet minister into the premier's chair would mark a new era in how this party runs the province.

Really?  A party that covets democracy so much finally realized that citizens from other party stripes would buy memberships en masse to vote and have their liberalish candidate win on subsequent run-off ballots was not something they wanted to repeat.  Can't have too many candidates run, but not too few to make it not look like a race, you know.  Oh, how we miss the exciting party leadership convention format (which worked, by the way).

So let's look at the PC leadership election, itself mired in controversy, and then pick apart the new cabinet.  Fun times ahead!

In the leadership "race", 23,386 votes were cast.  Prentice won on the first ballot with 17,863 votes, Ric McIver got 2,742 and Thomas Lukaszuk got 2,681.

But looking back to the party's leadership race in 2011, 59,359 votes were cast on the first ballot and 76,186 votes on the second ballot's first round.

The vote difference on the first ballot between the 2014 and 2011 races is 35,973 votes.  That's a 61% drop.  It was said more people attend Edmonton Eskimo games than the number of voters here.  And then, about the same number of people who attend Edmonton Oilers games voted for Prentice.

Let's admit that this is not a lot of people in a province of 4 million.  And let's also admit that interest in the PC Party has dropped off significantly.  So much so that Prentice cannot claim in any way shape or form that he has a mandate from the people.

The race saw Prentice handing out free memberships.
The vote was a sham in itself.
There are reports that while many people were able to vote twice, many were not even able to vote.

Oh, and some have said that because Prentice won by so much, it didn't really matter.  Really?  Is that the level of argument that party democracy has come to?  They can't even run a leadership race for only 23 thousand people, and you think they can still run a province.

If you're not convinced that nothing has or will change with this party and how they run the province, then let's move on to the recently appointed cabinet, shall we?

Two, not one, but two cabinet ministers were appointed from the citizenry and not from the elected MLAs in the PC or any other caucus.  While perfectly legal, is it right?  One is former Edmonton mayor, Stephen Mandel (who we all know was a Liberal) appointed as health minister, and the other is Gordon Dirks, a former pastor and Saskatchewan Conservative MLA appointed as the education minister.

Dirks himself was known to be associated with evangelical Christian groups with strong views on LGBT marriage and women's rights.  So it's funny, you know, the reason why Redford was able to have the PCs pull ahead at the last minute in the last election to win over Danielle Smith's Wildrose Party, was because of one Wildrose candidate named Huntsberger who also had strong views on gays.  So now where is the media calling out Dirks?  Heck, where are the current PC supporters who cried a fowl of Huntsberger, but now silent on one of their own?  Quite convenient, I'd say. Hypocrites on the other hand.

And wait! I should make that three cabinet ministers without a riding.  Can't forget about Jim Prentice himself as premier, can we?  Yes, I understand that's how this stuff works sometimes, but he's now also appointed himself as aboriginal relations minister, because you know, that's what he did in the federal government, so it's okay then, I guess.

Why is this important to mention?  Is it a big deal?  If the premier doesn't call an election soon, then essentially we have unelected people running the government who cannot be held to account by the opposition caucuses in the legislature because they are not members of the legislature.

Yes, this is a much smaller cabinet than Redford's, but let's not forget that the majority of the ministers were in the previous government too and most importantly THAT THEY ARE ALL FROM THE SAME SCANDAL-RIDDEN PARTY!

I also can't wait to hear what is dug up from the past when David Dorwood ran against Stephen Mandel for mayor of Edmonton. You know, his new fellow cabinet member?  I'm guessing something about tax and spend, oh and Dorwood wanting to keep the municipal airport open where Mandel had council already made the decision to close it.  I wonder what Dorwood thinks about all the new big towers going up in Edmonton because the airport was closed to allow for taller towers.  I wonder.

Then there's Prentice himself, who left some questions behind for us when he was a minister in the Harper government.  He now announces that the government jets are for sale to supposedly end the culture of entitlement.

I hope more facts and questions come to light for voters to see that this government is not under new management by any means.  For 43 years we've been duped into believing this zebra has changed its stripes, or that this pig's lipstick new colour all of sudden makes the pig different.

For you hard or soft NDP supporters, progressives from the liberals, disenfranchised PCs, or Alberta Party-goers, you have a real chance to hold the balance of power next election.  Admit that the NDP has been the only real stable progressive choice and that they have a home for you now under Brian Mason, and especially when Rachel Notley wins their leadership race.  There's no home for you in the PCs anymore, unless you ignore the numerous scandals, and their turncoat blatant disrespect for teachers and public employees. Don't forget that.  Stop voting PC already.

After 43 years, no matter who the leader is now, next election, it's time for us all to move forward without them and vote them out.

Or in the case of our new show "The APPrentice" - we need to tell them "you're fired".

Albertans deserve better.



   

Do the PCs think we're stupid? Alison Redford resigns as a PC MLA

"See! There's no one on that plane, Dave."  (not actual quote)
Premier Dave Hancock with former premier Alison Redford, who stepped down during this legislature session, in a FILE PHOTO. (EDMONTON SUN/File)

One minute you're flying around on a plane with your daughter and only a few people on it while looking forward to your new Premier's Palace on top of the refurbished Federal Building in Edmonton, then the next you're told to step down or more allegations will surface, and soon, of what we already knew, the auditor general reports you've really really been abusing your flight expenses, and staffers were making up people to be on those flights.

Oh, but you thought there were always more people on those flights.  Riiight.

No longer will Alison Redford, now known as the worst premier in Alberta's history (Canada too?), have her name and face on the side of the party bus.  She's been thrown under it.   No longer premier and now no longer MLA (not like she was showing up anyway), and now the RCMP are going to investigate.

Such is life in the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta.

What perfect timing too though, eh?  They should thank Redford for this nice distraction.

Nice distraction?  From what?  What do I mean?

Let us not forget how this party built up a coalition of ATA and AUPE folks to vote for them and Redford in the last election by promising money and stuff only to have them turn around and stab them in the backs by freezing their wages and benefits.  But then. THEN! Then just a couple weeks ago, these PCs quietly turn around again and GIVE THEMSELVES THE VERY SAME RAISE those employees were to get.

Did you vote for the PCs last election?  Nice going.

PCAA president, (who cares what his name is), then says it was Redford's "personal choices that led to her demise".

Was it really?  Do you really think we're that stupid?  Did any of you do anything to stop it while it was happening?  And while it was happening, how did you not know?  Seriously, Doug Horner, how did you not know?  You're the provincial treasurer.  Are you that incompetent too?  You must be since the province has been mired in deficits and debt for many many years now, yet our population and tax base have increased well over other provinces.  Not only that, but Albertans are working longer hours than before.

Don't let the PCs fool you.  Don't let leadership "newcomer" Prentice, McIver or Lukazuk convince you it's going to be different under their watch.  It's not just about Redford's "personal choices".  It's the entire culture of entitlement of that party and total disregard for taxpayer's money and voting support.  The wink wink.  The nudge nudge.

It's the same party that allowed school boards and towns to pay for party fundraising dinners without any accountability on these illegal donations.

It's the same party that's been in government for 43 years.

It's the same party that elected Alison Redford as leader.

It's the same party that just might think we're stupid and won't notice.

Ed Stelmach won't seek re-election

Everyone is quite shocked today to hear of Premier Ed Stelmach's pending resignation.  I know I am.  I actually admired his quiet, yet ruthless approach to politics, but as readers of my blog know, although he was my 2nd choice on the PC leadership ballot, it wasn't soon after, save a few good cabinet ministers, I stopped supporting this directionless, anti-fun, anti-libertarian government.

Now, with another PC leadership race to begin, who will the candidates be?  And once he or she becomes premier, when will the election be?  Ed said 2012 but indicated his successor is not bound by that.  Will we then have to wait until 2013 as mandated by law?

Potential candidates (well, why not start the speculation?):

• Ted Morton (current finance minister) -- How many on his former team have jumped to the Wildrose Alliance?  Will Wildrose folks buy memberships and support or stop him considering that he is strongly considering running against Wildrose leader Danielle Smith?  If you ask me, a former Morton supporter, I'd probably stop him in his tracks.  I have disliked his tenure as finance minister.  So to begin, I'd like to mention that Ted was born in the U.S.
  
  
• Jim Dinning (former finance minister) -- As the dauphin from the last race which he lost the vote to Ed, would he give it another go?  How many in the current PC party are supporting him?  I'm also wondering if this is where the pressure on Ed to step down originated from... just like it happened when Ralph Klein got a lower than expected approval rating by his own party.
  
  
• Dave Hancock (current education minister) -- Well respected by the remaining 'progressive' side, would he siphon the potential Alberta Party supporters?
  
  
• Monte Solberg (former federal Conservative Party cabinet minister) -- Just throwing a name out there being that I told him face-to-face that he should run and he didn't balk.  I know I'd be torn between the Wildrose and the PCs if Monte were in the game.
  
• Jim Prentice (former federal Conservative Party cabinet minister) -- After recently resigning as MP in Calgary, would he take a run provincially?  I think this is less likely, but I've heard rumours.

Other questions and speculation...

In the new fledgling Alberta Party, could we have Dave Taylor, latest independent MLA and former Liberal leadership candidate running and winning that party's leadership?  I also guess that Raj Sherman will join.  Then, will the Liberal party then implode?  If the next election isn't until 2013, that buys the the AP time to their advantage.  Could they pull votes from the NDP as well?

Speaking of the NDP ... my guess is that this will be Brian Mason's last go of it and it's obvious that Rachel Notley will take the reigns from there.  But will it be too late?  Will all the 'progressives' from the Liberals and NDP support the Alberta Party (which has good momentum now)?

But let's ask, will the PCs implode?  Not likely, but they were directionless before, so with a lame duck leader, will they care to make decisions at all?   The PCs have lost MLAs to the Wildrose Alliance, so the question is will the Alberta Party draw PC votes as well?   Even I considered supporting the Alberta Liberals if Dave Taylor won the leadership.

You see where I'm going with this?  I think this all bodes well for Danielle Smith, whose party Ed directly attacked today. 

With THREE viable parties on the centre-left, and a weak PC party, will they split the vote?  You betcha!

Not too long ago, I predicted the Wildrose would get maybe 12-18 seats in a 2012 election.

That just doubled, at least.

That is if Wildrose and Alberta Party supporters play this smart, they should buy PC memberships and vote in droves for the least electable candidate. 

Then it'll be a former media personality showdown between Danielle Smith vs. Dave Taylor.  Now THAT combination would be an interesting debate.

Election speculation 2011

Ah, speculation is in the air!  Journalists love to speculate.

There is speculation that upcoming bills may be defeated by the opposition. And any one of them may be a matter of confidence. And the Conservatives set it up this way so they'd head to the polls before their Spring bad news budget, which, rumours say, is full of spending cuts and freezes.

There is also speculation that the Conservatives will get by the bills, but make the budget so sour and very fiscally conservative that the Liberals will be trapped and have no choice but to defeat it because it "just goes too deep", forcing an election.  Or it could be tainted with the removal of the party funding thing.

The Conservatives are polling quite well right now, some having them 13 points ahead, 2 to 1 over the Libs in B.C., 7 points ahead in Ontario, and virtually tied in Quebec with the Libs.  Despite the efforts of Iggy and Co. in "crossing" Canada this summer and yapping against everything (and he certainly wasn't in the House to actually vote for or against either though), the Liberals have difficulty staying above 30% and are constantly near their lowest numbers ever.

Let's also not forget that this is the longest running minority government in Canadian history and could very well continue as long as the Liberals keep pumping out weak leaders.

And just ignore anyone from any party who says, "Canadians don't want an election right now."  Canadians don't necessarily determine when elections are so it's a meaningless statement.  I doubt the Prime Minister will prorogue again and is more interested in simply governing, but has no problem in possibly going to the polls by being defeated by the opposition led by the Liberals.

So the question is not whether the Conservatives want to fight an election, it's if the Liberals are.  More so, is Bob Rae willing to have Ignatieff die on his sword in losing in an election for Bob to take the reigns.

On the Conservative side, if Harper fails to achieve a majority, which they are very close to doing, the knives will be out.  With Jim Prentice taking a break from politics, with Peter Mackay waiting waiting waiting, Jason Kenney having a chunk of quiet support, there is also an outsider in the name of former New Brunswick Premier, Bernard Lord, who was recently opted by Toronto Star Harper-hater journalist Jim Travers. 

Lord apparently wants to run for MP and be a cabinet minister after the next election.  He's young at 46, so there isn't a rush to go for the prize.  He would simply need to wait, as the others have done. 

And let us not forget Quebec conservative crusader Maxime Bernier who's been giving speech after speech trumpeting core conservative values. He'd certainly be competitive.

But then again, never underestimate Mr. Harper's ability to relegate any seemingly competitive members to the sidelines, as he's successfully done with his cabinet ministers and Liberal leaders for that matter.

And if that's the case, we'll be reading in the headlines "Prime Minister Stephen Harper" for years to come.

Nightmare on the Hill

I had a very vivid dream last night that played out in the House of Commons. Kind of a nightmare.

I was a page next to the Speaker's chair watching everything unfold with the Liberal/NDP coalition. Governor General, Her Excellency Michaelle Jean entered the chambers and called all the party leaders into her office while we all waited in anxiety.

Ten minutes later, they all returned and I stood next to Her Excellency. MP Jim Prentice stood up and announced to everyone that the Governor General has asked that the Prime Minister, Stephen Harper compromise and work with Opposition Leader Stephane Dion in coming up with a viable solution to prevent defeat of the duly elected government.

Everyone rejoiced. Mostly Conservatives.

Afterward, there was a party to celebrate, and I spoke with Her Excellency and thanked her for her wisdom.

Then I realized that I was dreaming within a dream and a friend of mine who works on the Hill told me that the Governor General actually allowed the coalition government to form with Stephane Dion as Prime Minister.

One of these dreams will come true. And one of them is a nightmare.

I can't understand for the life of me how on one hand that Stephane Dion can say that they will not defeat the government on the Throne Speech one week and the next day push for a confidence motion based on an economic update with basically the same content, save, of course, removing public party financing.

Any Liberal or NDP who says its about the economy is pushing poppycock. Its about a power grab, pure and simple.

And anyone who says the Harper government doesn't have the support of the majority of voters, although our parliamentary system allows a minority government to form, and then supports the coalition using the same parliamentary system to overturn the election results which gave the Harper government a mandate based on their economic proposals during the campaign, flies in the face of our parliamentary democracy.

Hypocrites abound and shameful.

"Good shot [pro]Rogue II" or another Rebel Alliance?

The current situation in Parliament reminds me of the Star Wars series--how an elected official, Senator Palpatine, was elected chancellor of the Galactic Senate, while as Sith Lord, Darth Sidious, secretly creates a mass crisis and war between the clones and robot army, and in order to restore "peace", single-handedly creates the Galactic Empire with himself as Emporer. Then with one swift move, wipes out the Jedi, the protectors of democracy, and rules for over a decade.

Thing is, with Parliament, I can't tell who to compare Palpatine/Sidious to.

With the release of the NDP taped conference call and claims that leader Jack Layton had a deal with the Bloc well before the Tory gov't's economic update, could this make Jack the Sith Lord. Is it Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe in helping to prop up a coalition giving the balance of power to his separatist movement? Or is it Ed Broadbent and Jean Chretien putting the deal together between the NDP and Liberals in the back room? Is it Stephane Dion who would be leader of the coalition gov't and thus prime minister, although he was resoundly rejected by voters. Or is it Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has just prorogued parliament until the new year? Or is it Tory insiders, with new leadership websites for John Baird and Jim Prentice, secretly plotting a coup against Harper, so their future leadership hopefuls have a chance to move in and save the day?

See! Hard to tell, isn't it?

But what I do know is, whomever wins this recent situation in the end and stability returns, will be deemed "The New Hope", a.k.a. Luke Skywalker. That said, by properly applying The Force, the winner will also have to finally defeat his enemies, returning peace, order, and good government to Canada (a.k.a. winning a majority).

And this could apply to Liberal leadership contender, Michael Ignatieff, winning the race in May, raising the Liberal party out of the ashes, and defeating Harper in an election.

But it could also still apply to Stephen Harper, in his quest to destroy the Liberal party.

But as they often say in Star Wars, "I got a bad feeling about this."