Election prediction - The Gut Method

Just before the election, I went with my gut and predicted a Conservative majority.  Not a huge one, but enough seats to put them over the edge.  Out of all of the pollsters (except Compas.ca), I was right on that.  I was also quite accurate on vote percentage.  I looked at the average and then went with my gut thinking the CPC always gets 2 to 3% more than the polls on election day, that the LPC would be a bit higher, and the NDP were being way overestimated.

On seats, though, what I wasn't right on was the opposition parties.  Not even close.  A friend of mine who's father happens to be the Alberta NDP leader, predicted 80 seats for the Dippers.  Even he underestimated admitting the NDP have no ground game in Quebec.  What we both didn't realize is that Quebeckers appear to vote for party, not people.

So, here's a quick recap of the numbers.  Seriously, look at how close I was on vote percentage.

PERCENTAGE	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
Actual	39.6	30.6	18.9	6.0	3.9
Pollster Average	37.4	31.2	18.8	6.5	4.9
Diff	-2.2	0.6	-0.1	0.5	1.0
Hatrock's Cave	40.0	30.0	20.0	7.0	3.0
Diff	0.4	-0.6	1.1	1.0	-0.9
SEATS	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
Actual	166	103	34	4	1	0
Pollster Average	145	90	51	20	0	0
Diff	-21	-13	17	16	-1	0
Hatrock's Cave	157	65	55	30	0	1
Diff	-9	-38	21	26	-1	1

In summary:

• Don't underestimate the Conservatives.  Although I predicted a slight majority, I STILL underestimated.
  
• When Quebeckers turn on a party, they do it fast, and they do it big-time, even not regarding who the local candidate is.

Election Post Mortem

I say, there's no better title to this blog post than "Post Mortem" due to the election's political death of leaders, cabinet ministers, and other high-profile MPs.

Lorne Gunter has some insight on the NDP "surge" and how it was the Tories who actually surged through splits.

I lament, however, at no longer having the bulk of my posts focus on Dr. Michael Ignatieff.  It was fun to challenge his intentions to become PM.  I look forward to the next victim, Justin Trudeau, who will surely woo young soft Dipper support in Quebec once Quebeckers see that their new crop of NDP MPs won't deliver on anything and will turn on them so fast to look for the next best thing.  However, older soft-sovereignists will surely halt any exodus reciting "Je me souviens" and how Justin's father helped ignite Quebec nationalism.

And speaking of Quebec nationalism, Mr. Duceppe, it's been a slice, but your party, like your province, no longer has any real relevancy or power in Parliament.  Conservatives have shown that a majority is possible without Quebec and this will continue in elections to come as more seats are added to BC, Alberta, and Ontario.  Now especially with a few Quebec Conservative cabinet ministers getting turfed, Quebec continues to choose to be on the outside of government and the national stage.  So be it.

"Jack and Gilles went up the Hill to fetch a pail of water
Jack fell down, sprained his hip, recovered, and Gilles tumbled all the way thereafter."

For American-born, dual-citizenship, Elizabeth May, she and her party survive another day, despite losing 380,000 votes from 2008, that's a almost $800,000 the Greens WON'T receive in vote subsidies, but now, they won't have to pay her a salary.  I may spend some time focusing on her and her policies in future posts.

Speaking of salaries... over 100 MPs lost or retired.  How many qualify for the gold-plated pension I'm not sure, but many long-time MPs, including Gilles Duceppe, will live very comfortably for the rest of their lives.

For Prime Minister Stephen Harper, it has been a very long time coming.  Over ten years actually to get here.  After his hiatus as a Reform MP and leading the National Citizens' Coalition for a few years, in 2000, seeing Stockwell Day's days numbered, he returned with one intention--to unite the right. 

This election, I maintain that Harper was the one who engineered the election, trapping Ignatieff into holding the gov't in contempt.

I maintain that Harper let Jack attack Ignatieff on his voting record in the English debate and let him go toe-to-toe with Duceppe in the French debate.  Harper knew he didn't need Quebec to win, which is why Harper didn't have to say much and actually sacrificed Quebec and some of his cabinet ministers to the NDP to win it all elsewhere.

With a loss, two minority wins, and now a majority, Harper has proven as a skilled tactician, there is only one winner in a game of chess, not only with opposition leaders, but from within as well.  He is and will remain for many years, the last man standing up high on the Hill, with the only pail of water.

Election day!

CalgaryGrit has a listing of the latest polls.  Removing Compas.ca, here's the range.
CPC 35-37%, 138-146
NDP 30-33%, 65-114 !
LPC  18-21%, 39-63
Bloc  5-7%, 12-33.

Now, Compas.ca uses a different method.. more like a focus group.  I'm actually more inclined to believe their numbers giving a big majority to the CPC, however, the Election Prediction Project is actually pretty accurate.  But the range above definitely shows a shift in opposition.  It appears progressive Canadians have fired the Liberals, particularly Ignatieff, as official opposition.  Layton pointing out Ignatieff's very poor voting record in the debates and in TV ads, to me, coupled with Iggy's hollow "Rise Up" speeches, was the turning point.  Iggy telling Canadians to "Rise Up" when he wasn't even doing so in the House of Commons struck a chord with lefty progressives and saw Jack's attendance record and personality and flocked to him in droves.  Jack

In Quebec, soft-separatists have danced with Duceppe for some time now but his dancing has gotten dull and haven't seen any changes, see the Bloc leader without that spark, and so the exodus to the NDP and Jack Layton not to the Liberals and Ignatieff, who drifted to the right.  However, as I've said, the NDP have little ground game in Quebec and think they'll be on the lower-end of polls.

I don't think bin Laden's death will really change anything, other than solidify NDP voters who want out of Afghanistan and CPC voters who support Canada's military engagement there. 

Okay, here's the final polls, average, change from 2008, and my prediction.

PERCENTAGE	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
Leger	36	31	21	7	4
Angus Reid	37	33	19	6	4
Ipsos	38	33	18	7	4
Nanos	37	32	18	7	4
Ekos	35	31	20	5	6
Decima	36	30	19	6	6
Forum	35	33	19
Abacus	37	32	18	7	7
Compas	46	26	17	7	4
Average	37.44	31.22	18.78	6.50	4.88
2008	37.65	17.48	26.26	9.98	4.48
Change	-0.21	1.30	4.96	-3.48	0.40
Hatrock's Cave	40	30	20	7	3
SEATS	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
308.com	143	78	60	27	0	0
Riding-by-Riding	142	114	39	12	0	1
Trendlines	148	92	50	17	0	0
Ekos	138	113	41	15	1	0
LISPOP	144	98	51	15	0	0
Democratic Space	149	79	55	24	0	0
Election Pred. Proj.	146	63	63	33	0	0
Calgary Grit (proj)	151	91	47	19	0	0
Calgary Grit (pred)	146	83	55	22	1	1
Average	145.2	90.1	51.2	20.4	0.2	0.2
2008	143	29	77	49	0
Change	2	61	-26	-29	0
Hatrock's Cave	157	65	55	30	0	1

Ok, now I'm going to head to the polling station half a block away and vote for Laurie Hawn.