Election prediction - The Gut Method

Just before the election, I went with my gut and predicted a Conservative majority.  Not a huge one, but enough seats to put them over the edge.  Out of all of the pollsters (except Compas.ca), I was right on that.  I was also quite accurate on vote percentage.  I looked at the average and then went with my gut thinking the CPC always gets 2 to 3% more than the polls on election day, that the LPC would be a bit higher, and the NDP were being way overestimated.

On seats, though, what I wasn't right on was the opposition parties.  Not even close.  A friend of mine who's father happens to be the Alberta NDP leader, predicted 80 seats for the Dippers.  Even he underestimated admitting the NDP have no ground game in Quebec.  What we both didn't realize is that Quebeckers appear to vote for party, not people.

So, here's a quick recap of the numbers.  Seriously, look at how close I was on vote percentage.

PERCENTAGE	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
Actual	39.6	30.6	18.9	6.0	3.9
Pollster Average	37.4	31.2	18.8	6.5	4.9
Diff	-2.2	0.6	-0.1	0.5	1.0
Hatrock's Cave	40.0	30.0	20.0	7.0	3.0
Diff	0.4	-0.6	1.1	1.0	-0.9
SEATS	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
Actual	166	103	34	4	1	0
Pollster Average	145	90	51	20	0	0
Diff	-21	-13	17	16	-1	0
Hatrock's Cave	157	65	55	30	0	1
Diff	-9	-38	21	26	-1	1

In summary:

• Don't underestimate the Conservatives.  Although I predicted a slight majority, I STILL underestimated.
  
• When Quebeckers turn on a party, they do it fast, and they do it big-time, even not regarding who the local candidate is.

Election notes on week 1 - Momentum with Harper

The Conservatives gain over the week and the Liberals grab 4 points from the NDP, then steadily go down and the media says Ignatieff has the momentum?

I'm not saying that the Liberals didn't have a good week campaigning.  They did.  No gaffes and Ignatieff has come across as well spoken and sincere on the trail and in their TV ads.

Jack and the NDP had a good week campaigning but initially lost support to the Liberals and now they appear to be gaining it back.

What's becoming clear is that Conservative support is solidifying and not being lost to the Liberals.  With  the Liberal platform moving way to the left, it's an obvious attempt at winning over 'progressives' and stealing soft NDP support.  It's the usual Liberal strategy, but in this case, it's for survival and it won't work actually to win the election.  It's not centrist.

The Liberal Red Book is difficult to decipher on what the policies actually are.  All the campaigns are still guilty of yapping about billions and millions to be spent on this and this over so many years, but this doesn't translate to the average Canadian and street politics and they'll ignore it altogether.  Voters want to hear how that money applies to them directly. 

What is winning people over is when Ignatieff said "four grand for each student" and Harper said "Thousand buck tax credit for your kid in fitness and 500 for you now too".

These types of policies bug me, but politically, they work.  It almost seems that by the time they've targetted every demographic with a tax policy specific to them, in the end, it almost seems like everyone will be covered.  What it does do is speak to you directly.  "Hey parents, we're thinking of you, so soon you'll be able to write off your kids' karate class fees."

For Stephen Harper, the past week could have gone much better, but the polls show who has the momentum toward the coveted majority, and it's the Conservatives, not Liberals.

Election notes - Day 6: Liberals rise, NDP fall

Nick Nanos has released a poll showing the Liberals have gained up to 4 points nationally where the NDP have dropped by about the same amount.

I'm wondering if talk of the coalition by Harper has actually scared lefty voters to just support the Liberals instead of swallowing their ideological pride and go Conservative.  Or, they hate Harper more than they like Jack and now find Ignatieff palatable.  Or that stupid CBC Vote Compass has fooled Canadians with no views into believing they're Liberal.
 
Conservative support is stagnant, so Harper appears to be solidifying his base.  But I also believe the business community have left the Liberals for the most part and are mostly Conservative now, same with immigrants.  So I believe the fight for Harper will be to sway at least 3% of centrists in Ontario.

However, this movement on the left shows me that Canadians are paying attention more than I thought.

Federal seat projections

I read Liberal blogs often and there's a few that are valuable resources on nominations, election results, and polling data.  This post by blogger Calgary Grit is significant as it shows the Conservatives have improved their odds at winning a majority if an election were held now.  While the odds average around 17% at winning, it is perhaps showing that now the Conservatives have penetrated the Toronto Liberal fortress by winning the byelection in the riding of Vaughan, a Liberal stronghold for 22 years, that there's some momentum here. 

Day 5 of the Federalection - Seat Projections

Here's some seat projections from various sources:

CalgaryGrit has the following based on some serious statistical calculations:
Conservatives: 137.9 (95% CI from 132 to 144)
Liberals: 98.5 (95% CI from 93 to 104)
NDP: 28.8 (95% CI from 25 to 32)
Bloc: 42.0 (95% CI from 39 to 45)
Indepent: 0.8

Hill and Knowlton have a cool seat projector map tool you can play with as well as predictions from several polling companies:

C=Conservatives, L=Liberals, N=NDP, B=Bloc Quebecois, G=Green, I=Independent/Other

Harris-Decima (Sep 8):
C: 133
L: 100
N: 26
B: 46
G: 0
I: 3

Angus-Reid (Sep 11):
C: 152
L: 61
N: 44
B: 50
G: 0
I: 1

Ekos (Sep 11):
C: 143
L: 80
N: 39
B: 46
G: 0
I: 0

No majority gov'ts in any of the scenarios. I still think the Bloc and Liberals are going to lose seats and the Conservatives and NDP will gain. One independent seat in Quebec. So from above I think Harris-Decima are out to lunch and of Angus-Reid and Ekos, I'd like to say Angus but Ekos is the happy medium. I just don't see the Liberals keeping the seats they have, especially now with strong NDP and Green campaigns.

But campaigns matter and we'll see if voters look beyond the gaffes and style and simply to Harper's record, Dion's policies, and Jack's Obamaness.

Conservative Spin

With the help of the Atlantic premiers in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, the Liberals appear to have been successful in the latest round of spin as regards the recently passed federal budget first reading in the House of Commons.

What doesn't make sense is that the budget deal offered these provinces the option to stay in the current Atlantic Accord or a one-year trial in the new provincial transfer equalization formula which considers the off-shore oil revenue generated by these provinces.

Because of this, the Conservative caucus was right to kick out Nova Scotian MP Bill Casey, not necessarily voting against the budget, but for flip flopping on the issue.

But it hasn't been properly spun that way by the Conservatives. A CTV.ca poll targets this misconception.

The latest Decima poll has the Conservatives at 29% and the Liberals at 32%.

Overall, I'd say Prime Minister Harper and the Conservatives need to do a much better job at promoting their agenda to the public and get into the living rooms of the average Canadian again like they did in the election. Sadly, the best way to do this is through the TV media.

I'm afraid that most Canadians just don't know our Prime Minister. I continually have to tell people that he's actually a personable guy with a keen sense of humour and a passion for this country and its people. What a contrast to when I met him over 10 years ago at Ezra Levant's Christmas party in Calgary.

However, they have been doing a good job in attacking Liberal leader Stephane Dion, as another poll suggest that a clear majority of Canadians don't want Stephane Dion as Prime Minister.

It appears all the pandering to the middle and to Quebec was all for naught, or are the Conservatives following the notion that when Canadians vote in an election, the majority vote against the leader they don't like?

Schmolly Poll

While I'm not big on polls, this one isn't surprising. The latest SES Research poll (which are usually the most accurate) has the Liberals one point ahead of the Conservatives for the first time since before the last election.

Where the big flip happens is in Quebec, where the Liberals have gained at the expense of the Conservatives. And this can mean only one thing: Afghanistan. The recent Liberal motion to withdraw troops sooner than later was obviously favoured by Quebeckers. As well as the contradictory statements coming from Defence Minister Gordon O'Connor, Foreign Affairs Minister Peter Mackay, and less so from Prime Minister Harper regarding regarding Taliban prisoner abuse. What gets me is that Opposition Leader Stephane Dion's statement about bringing the Taliban prisoners to Canada, just before all that government confusion, was about the dumbest thing I've ever heard, but it just didn't stick to Dion.

But the Conservatives gain in Atlantic and Liberals drop. Basically, since Dion has been leader, Liberals have remained stagnant.

Another striking trend on the graph shows the Greens in double digits at 10%, but Conservatives dropping at their expense. Green leader Elizabeth May has done everything she could to grab the spotlight for her party, and this has drawn the attention of environmentally-minded protest voters who used to vote Liberal in in 2004 and voted Conservative in 2006, would never vote NDP, but are parking their protest with the Greens.

What this means essentially is that the Liberals have lost the environment issue, but the Conservatives haven't gained it, which really ticks me off because I don't like some of the Conservatives new environment policies with banning lightbulbs and costly CO2 emissions bullshit.

I like them beefing up our military, letting farmers decide on whether they want to be a part of the Wheat Board, and the family-friendly agenda. I don't like them taxing income trusts or not finally bringing in some needed middle and lower class tax cuts. I don't like how they threw a bunch of cash at Quebec again.

This past month hasn't been a good one for the Conservative government with the environment and with Afghanistan, hence the hit in the polls. Understandable. But I think this is just a blip and that they'll be able to rebound back up a bit.

But whenever Conservative governments stop being conservative, they lose, because then voters might as well just go Liberal. Careful now.