Monday, October 19, 2015

Federal Election 2015 Predictions - Trudeaupia version

. #cdnpoli #elxn42 = Liberal minority.

- My prediction unfortunately changed in the last few days.  To get a majority, the vote percentage needs to be in the 38% range--that was when we had 308 seats. With 338 now, I'm not so sure.

146 LPC
115 CPC
 72 NDP
   2 GREEN
   3 BLOC
338 Total Seats

- The higher turnout at the advanced polls is a result of the CPC performing well on get-out-the-vote (GOTV) with seniors, who lean to the Conservatives because they donate to them as well.  This GOTV effort will also translate today, pushing the CPC higher than expected, but not enough.  Seniors since Thanksgiving, however, have decided to hand over the reigns to a younger leader.

- What's been amazing this campaign is seeing how high Mulcair and the NDP were early on and where they are now.  I think, however, the CPC were expecting a better NDP showing to split more of the vote in key ridings.

- That may not happen as much as the election turning point at the debate where Trudeau had glimpses of passion about his father--invigorating some emotion which he has then since rode upon in the remaining weeks.

- Trudeau's policy announcement gamble on massive infrastructure and deficit spending was a very interesting move.  If he would have said that a national high-speed rail system would be a part of it, he would have my attention--because we need it, badly, but it didn't.  His advisors apparently made the right choice in saying they'd kick-start the economy with this spending all the while campaigning in Ontario with Liberal Premier Wynne and her poor handling of that province's economy and her massive spending and deficits. Confused?

- The inundation of TV ads mostly back and forth between Trudeau and Harper shows a much more confident Trudeau trumpeting anti-Harper sentiment with the usual rhetoric, but a subdued Harper pleading to your pocket-book.

- Voters are mad this election--many don't know exactly why, but the left is motivated to get rid of Harper at all costs.  Even NDPers who didn't like Bill C51 are voting for Trudeau although the Liberals voted for it. 

- I am very curious to see if the younger vote made a difference in this one.

- In about 10 hours, Harper will step down as leader, a race will begin with CPC members voting in two years for at least one of:

  • John Baird - former CPC minister of everything makes a smart comeback
  • Maxime Bernier - former Quebec CPC minister has been quietly lurking. And by quietly, I mean at the forefront.
  • Jason Kenney - Minister of Defense and Multiculturalism - because everyone knows he will
  • Lisa Raitt - Minister of Transport - because she's well-known
  • Michelle Rempel - Minister of State-Western Diversification - because she has been very good in the media and against opponents this campaign
  • Brad Wall - popular Saskatchewan premier - because he's the outsider and has charisma
- I have no idea who'll be tapped to be Leader of the Official Opposition--but my guess is someone closer to Toronto and national media

-  NDP Tom Mulcair will also step-down, but not right away, and he'll make a decision in the coming days as he reassess whether he wants to continue to be leader of a 3rd party, or knowing the knives are out anyway.  Nathan Cullen will be the next NDP leader, as he should have been in the first place.

- With both the CPC and NDP choosing new leaders, neither will want to topple the minority gov't, allowing Trudeau to hang-on for 4 years.

- What should be noted is the Conservatives are no where near out of the picture, other than government.  Whomever is tapped to lead, they will have a chance as official opposition, then after 8 years of Trudeau, they have a real chance.  And yes, I just predicted Trudeau will win in 4 years.

I remember back when Trudeau said he wasn't going to run for Liberal leader.  That's when I knew he was going to, and win--even beating an astronaut, which he did.  But I didn't think he had his father's hutzpah or brains to actually become Prime Minister.

Or that the electorate was that gullible to believe him.

Welcome to Trudeaupia 2.0.

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

A national high speed rail system? Seriously? Have you ever looked at a map of the country?

Anonymous said...

I think the Conservatives made a number of mistakes in this election that cost them dearly. 1) they grossly underestimated Trudeau 2) They dropped the writ far to early 3) Harper shouldn't have run this time. Most of the opposition to the Conservatives is about him, not the party 4) they ran a "status quo" campaign. Simply telling people that the sky will fall and terrorist will kill you in your sleep if you don't vote for them does not create a passion to go out and vote. In 2011 they had an attractive agenda and people responded by giving them a majority

Anonymous said...

Poll numbers notwithstanding, I can't see any scenario where the LPC can gain 110 seats.

Roy Elsworth said...

i personally don't think the liberals are going to win i think the conservatives are going to win. and i think that mulcair will step down. there will be a minority and then we go back to the polls in 6 months and haprer wins a majority.

Climate Criminal said...

A minority Trudeau government for FOUR (4) years?

Far too long. Most minorities, an it doesn't matter whether Justin or Connor McDavid is PM, last only a year or so.

Anonymous said...

"terrorist will kill you in your sleep"

You realize that Europe is on fire right and its exactly what is happening across the open bordered EU.

The left wants to import that here.

I predict a CPC landslide higher than Diefenbaker (who brought us the bill of rights).
A 57.3 ceiling. Calling it now, with a low of 51%.
I think the polls are delusional and have no basis in reality. More media group think.

I noticed how poorly Trudeau did during the debates, needlessly and continually interrupting key points by his main opponent. That repels anyone across party lines.
What did the polls say after those?
Exactly.

Barely a modest bump for Harper who did what anyone would love for any debater to do. He kept calm cool and collected with exception of being slightly off put during JT's loudest outburst. Amazing that anyone could keep their composure like that.
I did notice that Harper had to squint the whole way through with all the spot lights purposely directed on him and not even on the others.

People also laughed at JT when the idea of him talking to Putin was brought up.

Anonymous said...

I think Harper really made a big mistake to stay on. He is too polarizing and has limited appeal beyond 1/3 of Canadians so winning again was relying on a low voter turnout and a divided opposition. I hope Trudeau isn't in for 8 years, but your probably right the party needs sometime in opposition before coming back. That being said if he does something dumb it could happen sooner than later. With the economy still sluggish and likely to stay sluggish I think one term governments will become more common throughout the developed world. I do hope however that some of the provinces start swinging rightward to balance things out.

Finally in closing I think the party whether people like it or not needs to be a little more moderate and inclusive. Yes one needs to appeal to their base but if they go overboard it can turn away a lot of people which I think the Tories have done.

Anonymous said...

btw, don't vote NDP strategically to stop libs... its an utterly stupid idea. only preferable where it is either or, since liberals are such a slow burn to replace, where as NDP make such a quick mess like in Alberta, even ahead of the election.
I see a wildrose majority over there in four years, based on the pendulum.
Otherwise, Vote CPC. Even the Libertarian Party are conceding their support behind them, finally, after a change in leadership. They are still taking donations so consider that.

Anonymous said...

The CPC haven't turned anyone away. stop using CBC talking points.
Stop letting the nonsense media determine your perception.
Most people who are like "yeah... harper sucks.." don't make up the silent majority of people who rarely pay attention to politics cuz they are busy working.

Everything is historically pointing to a CPC landslide. Libs can't win over 100 seats just cuz they have a tax payer funded trust fund heir running the show.


Has everyone lost it?

Do you also think Obama could win a third term?

Anonymous said...

"Finally in closing I think the [liberal] party whether people like it or not needs to be a little more moderate and inclusive. Yes one needs to appeal to their [fan]base but if they go overboard it can turn away a lot of people which I think the [Lberals, NDP & Greens] have done."

Very interesting. I don't see it happening as it already would of years in advance.
CPC is plenty moderate in a world gone batshit left wing. Are you enjoying the fireshows in Europe? Are you asking for front row seats? couldn't you just take a trip somewhere else?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 5:31 PM - The idea the Tories will win a landslide majority is nonsense. At best they will win a weak minority but say 10 seats.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous 5:31 PM

On what grounds could they lose enough ground?
Your ignoring the demographic trend over several elections.

And what would be required for Liberals to recover even half the seats needed to just to form lead opposition.
There is too much evidence that they have not reformed themselves. They never tossed their bad apples, but rather took on a great many more. They wouldn't moderate themselves and have gone further left.

Liberals care more about image and fluffy platitudes. They cuz messes, (most) conservatives clean up, then get blamed. They are right now trying to pin the economic mismanagement of the provinces on the federal government. but if the left was in power, they would be blaming the provinces like they did to Mike Harris... who btw just one top premier since 1980.

Conservative Majority or bust. Unless the NDP moderate and work with a CPC minority.

Ward Benedict said...


Some remarkable media talking points here. Harper is no more polarizing than any other party leader. Harper is a very effective conservative leader and PM. Calling him polarizing is simply media spin.

Also, there is no Conservative Party or Conservative majority government without Stephen Harper. No one else had the brilliant tactical skills to pull it off. He has beaten his opponents at every turn.

That is why there is a pull out all the stops propaganda campaign to destroy him.

Some of the lingering PC's finally left. I would dearly love to see one more Conservative majority.

That is all we would need to set Canada on track for decades to come.

Anonymous said...

Libs would need to win Quebec, no chance with a name like Trudeau.
Also western Canada will be a sea of blue against a Trudeau.

Atlantic Canada was expected to be red so meh.
they are kinda hopeless like that. come world war three Russia will just annex them to their glee, I'm sure.
Personally, I would rather be conquered by China if that tiger can't be tamed.
No hate on China, I was really hoping to see them go capitalist like Hong Kong.
But only the left get to choose their oppressors... usually with warm ignorant greets.

Anonymous said...

Ive stayed out of being any type of influence on my fellow canucks for 4 years just so I can see how my fellow canucks stand on-
World issues
Economy
Domestic issues

World issues- Canada is on the planet. We made our positions known thanks to the conservative rank and file in particular Jason Kenney deserves kudos. The last century was the century of tyrants, dictators and mass slaughter. Will the people of this world allow that to happen again?

The economy- Ive flourished after 8 years of conservative rule. Lets face it the economy rides waves up and down about every 8-10 years. Crunch time is coming again in 2016 , and stability is needed once again. Smart stimulus spending and a balanced budget. You arent going to get that with 20 billion dollar spending spree by a liberal govt.

Domestic issues- identity politics has long been played by political parties to score points.However only the conservatives successfully ran the last election on values. Not religious or ideological ones. Ive got muslim friends who are not keen on ISIS and their ilk and are certainly not stupid enough to fight for them.

Nuff said fro this corner.

Kirby Evans said...

The worst PM in history just got swamped. Thank you Canada.

Anonymous said...

180+!? how... how... not even possible. This is totally a rigged election.

on a whim they gave a massive majority to a little boy.... after all the hoops the CPC did to be modest and moderate but without betraying the base.

Makes no sense that voters didn't gravitate in our direction despite the overwhelming evidence against modern liberalism, against socialism, against statism, failed multiculturalism.... We're for pluralism, but what is going on in Europe is sure to happen here. You can't bring in anti-pluralistic cultures that hate you.

Especially from countries that have declared war on us.

I have no idea what triggered this suicide dive. What at the worst time. Please explain how the CPC legitimately lost when they did everything right that reasonably could.

http://cotmblog.com/2015/10/18/reasons-to-vote-conservative-tomorrow/

Anonymous said...

Classical liberalism died tonight.

Anonymous said...

Get Out The Vote campaigns almost never push turnout percentages up very high. These campaigns push the margins in your favour, making the difference in close ridings. I think you got it right that the Conservatives ran an excellent GOTV but you're wrong thinking that the higher turnout being reported is largely due to that.

Anonymous said...

how did we lose -8% vote count?!

makes no sense. Americans laugh at the minuscule so-called scandals we've had. That cost over $23 million in audits, only to find $1Million in minor infractions, like golf expenses.

So we toss a fine fiscal steward so can chase co2 emissions? cuz that's the big worry?
Wouldn't china with all its coal plants etc be the epicenter of what every climate alarmist warns us about?.... this is nuts.

Diana West was right.

Anonymous said...

A rather interesting and reasonable post. Sadly, one cannot say that about most of your commenters.

"a fine fiscal steward" doesn't add over $150,000,000,000 to the national debt.

"I predict a CPC landslide higher than Diefenbaker (who brought us the bill of rights).
A 57.3 ceiling. Calling it now, with a low of 51%.
I think the polls are delusional and have no basis in reality. More media group think."
Look who's delusional now blaming the 'media' after Post Media dictated from their Toronto HQ that ALL of their publications endorse Harper and then had the unmitigated gall to see the bloody FRONT PAGE as advertising. But sure, let's go with left wing media bias and the 'media party'. This posters ass is jealous of what's coming out of his mouth.

"Even the Libertarian Party are conceding their support behind them …" Yes, all 7 of their supporters.

"Conservative Majority or bust." Well then, see ya.

Minor edit need here.
"I would dearly love to see one more Conservative majority.
That is all we would need to set Canada on track for decades to come."

Should read:
"I would dearly love to see one more Conservative majority.
That is all we would need to set Canada back for decades to come."

"Libs would need to win Quebec, no chance with a name like Trudeau.
Also western Canada will be a sea of blue against a Trudeau." Nice prediction.

Anonymous said...

Poll numbers notwithstanding, I can't see any scenario where the LPC can gain 110 seats.
;-)