. #cdnpoli #elxn42 = Liberal minority.
- My prediction unfortunately changed in the last few days. To get a majority, the vote percentage needs to be in the 38% range--that was when we had 308 seats. With 338 now, I'm not so sure.
338 Total Seats
- The higher turnout at the advanced polls is a result of the CPC performing well on get-out-the-vote (GOTV) with seniors, who lean to the Conservatives because they donate to them as well. This GOTV effort will also translate today, pushing the CPC higher than expected, but not enough. Seniors since Thanksgiving, however, have decided to hand over the reigns to a younger leader.
- What's been amazing this campaign is seeing how high Mulcair and the NDP were early on and where they are now. I think, however, the CPC were expecting a better NDP showing to split more of the vote in key ridings.
- That may not happen as much as the election turning point at the debate where Trudeau had glimpses of passion about his father--invigorating some emotion which he has then since rode upon in the remaining weeks.
- Trudeau's policy announcement gamble on massive infrastructure and deficit spending was a very interesting move. If he would have said that a national high-speed rail system would be a part of it, he would have my attention--because we need it, badly, but it didn't. His advisors apparently made the right choice in saying they'd kick-start the economy with this spending all the while campaigning in Ontario with Liberal Premier Wynne and her poor handling of that province's economy and her massive spending and deficits. Confused?
- The inundation of TV ads mostly back and forth between Trudeau and Harper shows a much more confident Trudeau trumpeting anti-Harper sentiment with the usual rhetoric, but a subdued Harper pleading to your pocket-book.
- Voters are mad this election--many don't know exactly why, but the left is motivated to get rid of Harper at all costs. Even NDPers who didn't like Bill C51 are voting for Trudeau although the Liberals voted for it.
- I am very curious to see if the younger vote made a difference in this one.
- In about 10 hours, Harper will step down as leader, a race will begin with CPC members voting in two years for at least one of:
- John Baird - former CPC minister of everything makes a smart comeback
- Maxime Bernier - former Quebec CPC minister has been quietly lurking. And by quietly, I mean at the forefront.
- Jason Kenney - Minister of Defense and Multiculturalism - because everyone knows he will
- Lisa Raitt - Minister of Transport - because she's well-known
- Michelle Rempel - Minister of State-Western Diversification - because she has been very good in the media and against opponents this campaign
- Brad Wall - popular Saskatchewan premier - because he's the outsider and has charisma
- NDP Tom Mulcair will also step-down, but not right away, and he'll make a decision in the coming days as he reassess whether he wants to continue to be leader of a 3rd party, or knowing the knives are out anyway. Nathan Cullen will be the next NDP leader, as he should have been in the first place.
- With both the CPC and NDP choosing new leaders, neither will want to topple the minority gov't, allowing Trudeau to hang-on for 4 years.
- What should be noted is the Conservatives are no where near out of the picture, other than government. Whomever is tapped to lead, they will have a chance as official opposition, then after 8 years of Trudeau, they have a real chance. And yes, I just predicted Trudeau will win in 4 years.
I remember back when Trudeau said he wasn't going to run for Liberal leader. That's when I knew he was going to, and win--even beating an astronaut, which he did. But I didn't think he had his father's hutzpah or brains to actually become Prime Minister.
Or that the electorate was that gullible to believe him.
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