Tuesday, October 20, 2015

My Prediction vs. The Results

#cdnpoli #elxn42

146 LPC
115 CPC
 72 NDP
   2 GREEN
   3 BLOC

184 LPC (+38 from prediction)
  99 CPC (-16)
  44 NDP (-28)
    1 GREEN (-1)
   10 BLOC (+7)

 - In about 10 hours, Harper will step down as leader, a race will begin

Results:  CORRECT
- A CPC aide sent out a letter stating Harper would step down as leader, although there wasn't a formal announcement.  Whether Harper remains as an MP, is unknown, but I don't see why he wouldn't stay on and help.  He certainly knows what he's talking about when it comes to the PMO. This would be good for Canada.


  • John Baird - former CPC minister of everything makes a smart comeback
  • Maxime Bernier - former Quebec CPC minister has been quietly lurking. And by quietly, I mean at the forefront.
  • Jason Kenney - Minister of Defense and Multiculturalism - because everyone knows he will
  • Lisa Raitt - Minister of Transport - because she's well-known
  • Michelle Rempel - Minister of State-Western Diversification - because she has been very good in the media and against opponents this campaign
  • Brad Wall - popular Saskatchewan premier - because he's the outsider and has charisma
- I have no idea who'll be tapped to be Leader of the Official Opposition--but my guess is someone closer to Toronto and national media
Results:  TOO EARLY
- The media mentioned that Kenny, Raitt, and Wall were potential candidates, so I'm half-right on this one so far.  I also think there will be a quiet "Anybody But Kenney" coalescing around Baird.

 -  NDP Tom Mulcair will also step-down, but not right away, and he'll make a decision in the coming days as he reassess whether he wants to continue to be leader of a 3rd party, or knowing the knives are out anyway.  Nathan Cullen will be the next NDP leader, as he should have been in the first place.

- Mulcair did not step down as leader.  Cullen won his seat.

 - What should be noted is the Conservatives are no where near out of the picture, other than government.  Whomever is tapped to lead, they will have a chance as official opposition, then after 8 years of Trudeau, they have a real chance.  And yes, I just predicted Trudeau will win in 4 years.

- Conservatives got 99-100 seats and have plenty of former cabinet ministers now in opposition.  They know the files.  They know the ins and outs.  They will be much more effective in holding Trudeau and Co. to account.  Much more than the previous inexperienced NDP and decimated Liberals.  That said, the new leader will need time in opposition.

Some thoughts:

Q:  Why did the Harper campaign lose this election?
A:   Two things. 
  1) They underestimated Trudeau to galvanize old Liberals.  Even old Brian Mulroney said so. 
  2)  NDP collapse.  So although the Conservatives gained some support from the niqab issue, the NDP lost support allowing the Liberals to shoot up the middle, especially in Quebec.

Q:  Why did the NDP crumble?
A:  Their stance on the niqab issue was not liked in Quebec, Tom Mulcair is no Jack Layton by any means, and a lot of their existing MPs were weak.  They lost the "protest vote" as a result.

In my next post, we'll do some advanced number crunching and look to previous elections to see what else happened.


Anonymous said...

Jason Kennedy is cuddly, but not warm. He also likes the sound of his own voice too much. Baird is neither warm nor cuddly.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Considering how bad the defeat was, I would say we should look outside of caucus as if the next leader is seen as too much of a continuation of Harper, I fear we will lose again.

Anonymous said...

Brad Wall.

Only problem is, he's apparently not bilingual...I think?

Short of that, he's the man.

Heard someone say that Kenney's not going for the leadership. He's not the one for the job. Media Party may hate him even more than Harper, likely for the same reason: He, too, is waaaaay smarter than all of 'em. Much better soldier than a general.

Rait? No. Rempel? Not yet. Baird? ...maybe. Bernier? Not.

...why does Michael Chong keep popping into my mind? Hmmm...

Al in Cranbrook

Anonymous said...

It's too bad some of the best prospects can't be convinced to rally to the cause. Brad Wall has reportedly declined and Ralph Klein couldn't be reached due to a rather severe case of death.

Mike B. said...

Thanks for your insight's everyone. Michael Chong's name is increasingly being touted. He is very well liked across all parties.