#cdnpoli #cdnelxn2015 -
Elections are about timing and momentum. After the 1st month, with the CPC, LPC, & NDP in a virtual tie, I'd say the CPC are in an ideal position given the circumstances.
The postponed Duffy trial has likely effected its maximum damage to the CPC soft-supporters and the party has now seen its low mark--meaning they can only go up from here.
The NDP have been very good at building quick momentum and timing their support to peak on Election Day. However, iteems as though they have already peaked--especially in Ontario, Alberta, and BC where a bunch of the new seats are.
The election issue has become the economy and the deficit and I believe the Libs and NDP have fallen into Harper's trap.
Justin and the Liberals gambled with a bold announcement for deficit spending to stimulate the economy, while equally having to retreat on attacking Harper on balanced budgets. Now they are instead focusing on Mulcair's numbers and the "big hole" to try and balance the budget with Liberal John McCallum as the attack dog. And in looking at the affects of NDP provincial policies on their economies, the people might tend to remember.
Meanwhile, the federal government conveniently announced that for the first quarter this year, there was actually a $5 billion surplus--essentially negating any further argument there from the Liberals or NDP.
Then lurking in the background is the NDP's $2.7 million own expense scandal, which appears to be gaining some traction among soft-NDP voters and the cause of NDP support slipping.
Right now, voter attention appears to be on Mulcair. With that look for more Liberal attacks on Mulcair from the left, while the Conservatives hammer from the right.
Justin has a real opportunity here to gain their support and possibly why he made the deficit spending announcement. Will it help the Liberals "shoot up the middle" with voter discontent? It's possible.
Essentially, what's happening to the NDP is the same ideological squeeze-play the NDP and CPC did to the Liberals last election.
And it's why far left NDP supporters are calling for Mulcair to move back before it's too late. But all the NDP needs to do is continue populist policy announcements that ring well in rural BC and Ontario--ironically former Reform Party territory I might add.
In the end, I think voter turnout will be very low, which plays well for incumbents, why people will vote for the devil they know, why the Conservatives are in a good spot, and why I still think they will win.