Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Hatrock's 2012 Alberta Election Analysis

I thought we'd revisit the 2012 Alberta election and my analysis of how Alison Redford was able to pull ahead and win in the "final hour".  Here's a rehash of my post:

The numbers are uncanny.  You have to go all the way back to Klein in 2001 to find the old PC stalwart voters.  They didn't show up in 2004 or 2008.  But they came back this election.  Look at this...

 501,063   PC votes in 2008
 378,023   conservatives who left PCs to WR in 2012
 123,040   conservatives/PCs remaining in PCs in 2012

 251,158   Liberal votes in 2008
- 46,174   2008 Liberals who switched to NDP in 2012
 204,984   difference
-127,642   Liberal votes in 2012

  77,342   2008 Liberal who switched to PCs in 2012
     31%   % of Liberals to PCs in 2012

 567,050  PC votes in 2012
-200,382  small-c conservatives and l-liberals who voted PCs in 2012

 366,668  New (former?) PC voters in 2012
 366,672  Voter turnout diff 2008 to 2012

IT'S THE SAME AMOUNT!!!!   In summary, a third of Liberals went PC because they were scaredy-pants of the Wildrose forming gov't, and somehow the PCs got votes from a magical voterland, perhaps this was the voter turnout difference.

Who are these magical voterland out-of-nowhere PC people?  Several theories:

  • PC went begging to all the former PC voters in some old list that haven't voted in a decade (2015--I can now confirm that this is what the party machine did)
  • Slew of public union gov't workers, teachers, and their families.  Don't forget how much the unions went on a  push poll rampage.
  • I also think in the final four days, there were about 100,000 PC supporters who'd previously said in polls that they'd vote Wildrose, and chickened out.  

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