I thought we'd revisit the 2012 Alberta election and my analysis of how Alison Redford was able to pull ahead and win in the "final hour". Here's a rehash of my post:
The numbers are uncanny. You have to go all the way back to Klein in 2001 to find the old PC stalwart voters. They didn't show up in 2004 or 2008. But they came back this election. Look at this...
501,063 PC votes in 2008
378,023 conservatives who left PCs to WR in 2012
123,040 conservatives/PCs remaining in PCs in 2012
251,158 Liberal votes in 2008
- 46,174 2008 Liberals who switched to NDP in 2012
-127,642 Liberal votes in 2012
77,342 2008 Liberal who switched to PCs in 2012
31% % of Liberals to PCs in 2012
567,050 PC votes in 2012
-200,382 small-c conservatives and l-liberals who voted PCs in 2012
366,668 New (former?) PC voters in 2012
366,672 Voter turnout diff 2008 to 2012
IT'S THE SAME AMOUNT!!!! In summary, a third of Liberals went PC because they were scaredy-pants of the Wildrose forming gov't, and somehow the PCs got votes from a magical voterland, perhaps this was the voter turnout difference.
Who are these magical voterland out-of-nowhere PC people? Several theories:
- PC went begging to all the former PC voters in some old list that haven't voted in a decade (2015--I can now confirm that this is what the party machine did)
- Slew of public union gov't workers, teachers, and their families. Don't forget how much the unions went on a push poll rampage.
- I also think in the final four days, there were about 100,000 PC supporters who'd previously said in polls that they'd vote Wildrose, and chickened out.