Friday, November 02, 2012

Obama will win

I have a bet with a staunch GOP supporter friend of mine (who's Canadian nonetheless) that Obama will win on Tuesday.  I challenged him because he became so confident that Mitt Romney would win, but also sweep all the swing states.  I didn't

After having spent some time in the U.S. this year, I often engaged colleagues and friends on how they felt.  While they were disappointed in the overall promise of "hopey changey" with Obama, I know of no one, not even one Republican that was excited about Mitt Romney, although they'd likely vote for him.  I'm finding more and more cynical American voters who are Libertarian or none-of-the-above, neither Obama or Romney.

I have declared that Romney's momentum, which picked up a lot of steam after he crushed Obama in the first debate, peaked a couple weeks ago.  The Romney campaign fumbled a great opportunity on the terrorist attack and murder of the U.S. Ambassador in Libya. For some reason, the Democrats were able to confuse the issue enough that it didn't sink with voters.  Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy, I believe, had an affect on the electoral feelings of those affected and not, and after seeing the devastation, may want to stick with certainty.

All that said, in analyzing the electoral college map, it takes some mighty last minute big GOP push to win back the swing states that were previously Bush.  Mitt doesn't have the women or Latino vote, where Bush had at least a good portion of the Latinos, and I think that's the difference.

Here's my map of my prediction.


Anonymous said...

My prediction: Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins the presidency because of the electoral college system. Here's hoping Romney wins but I'd put my money on Obama.

Anonymous said...

I have to disagree. I was in Atlanta at a national educators conference and I was surprised how overwhelmingly in favor people were for Romney. I would say the group was 60-40 Romney and these are typically leftists. In fact, when one speaker became vocally anti conservative and pro Obama, many people got up and walked out on him. I was amazed.

Anonymous said...

I don’t believe that obama will win.

Just compare it to the Canadian election when Jack in the box and American citizen ignatieff were running against Mr. Harper. The wise brilliant moronic media in the east all had Jackie or mikie at one time in the lead without any doubt. Then what happened? Suddenly Mr. Harper wins by a landslide!

Oh no! now all the clowns in the east got egg on their face. I say Romney will get it by miles and miles.

dmorris said...

As I predicted over at SDA, Electoral College:

Obama 288

Romney 250

Popular vote: Obama 51%

Romney 49%

I hope I'm wrong,but the Dems have a very powerful propaganda machine, and Bill Clinton to shill for the incumbent.