PCs at 54%
Wildrose at 16%
Liberals at 13.5%
NDP at 13.5%
Alberta Party at 2%
Undecided at 19%
It is summer and these numbers don't mean much, but the media and bloggers are dumping on Danielle Smith and the Wildrose for "plummeting". That's what happens when you peak way too soon.
When Danielle went through a honeymoon period, the Wildrose was tops. Mind you, Ed Stelmach was still intending to be leader and premier. Since he's stepping down, the numbers have changed. And now the PCs are currently in a leadership race, drawing support and attention. I've always felt that the best the Wildrose can do in next year's election is official opposition somewhere at 10-18 seats. But even now that seems difficult. The problem is that the party touted itself as grassroots but had a top down management style as well, which ticked off a lot of riding associations and soft supporters.
"Hey, but the Liberals are in a leadership race too, why aren't their numbers up like the PCs?" Because really, no one really cares about that race, other than maybe Raj Shermann.
The NDP haven't moved much. And the Alberta Party? Well, not much to say really. Each will get 1-3 seats next time.
Anyway, when the PCs pick their leader, that's when a new poll will mean something, whether it's Gary Mar, Ted Morton, or Rick Orman vs. Danielle Smith, it'll really depend on how they're perceived ideologically. For Danielle, the further left the PCs go with a leader, the better off she and the Wildrose are.
Friday, July 29, 2011