Friday, July 29, 2011

Alberta poll: PCs 54%, WR 16%...

Zoiks!

PCs at 54%
Wildrose at 16%
Liberals at 13.5%
NDP at 13.5%
Alberta Party at 2%
Undecided at 19%

It is summer and these numbers don't mean much, but the media and bloggers are dumping on Danielle Smith and the Wildrose for "plummeting".  That's what happens when you peak way too soon.

When Danielle went through a honeymoon period, the Wildrose was tops.  Mind you, Ed Stelmach was still intending to be leader and premier.  Since he's stepping down, the numbers have changed.  And now the PCs are currently in a leadership race, drawing support and attention.  I've always felt that the best the Wildrose can do in next year's election is official opposition somewhere at 10-18 seats.  But even now that seems difficult.  The problem is that the party touted itself as grassroots but had a top down management style as well, which ticked off a lot of riding associations and soft supporters.

"Hey, but the Liberals are in a leadership race too, why aren't their numbers up like the PCs?"  Because really, no one really cares about that race, other than maybe Raj Shermann.

The NDP haven't moved much.  And the Alberta Party?  Well, not much to say really.  Each will get 1-3 seats next time.

Anyway, when the PCs pick their leader, that's when a new poll will mean something, whether it's Gary Mar, Ted Morton, or Rick Orman vs. Danielle Smith, it'll really depend on how they're perceived ideologically.  For Danielle, the further left the PCs go with a leader, the better off she and the Wildrose are.

10 comments:

MIkhael said...

Sad news.
There's nowhere in Canada where real conservatism has a voice. I have been hoping that Alberta, once more, could start the process.

Alain said...

Polls can be very misleading, and I do hope that is the case here for Albertans need to dump the party that is conservative in name only.

hatrock said...

When even Ted Morton is talking about a 1% tax increase, you know he's drinking from the same kool-aid as the rest of the candidates. The party does need to go. 40 years? Come on. Stupid nanny-state laws that actually make things worse, deficits, no vision, it's tiring. Not voting for them anymore.

Mark said...

I believe the word we are looking for is "splat".

However no one seems to be in any rush to admit Danielle Smith was a mistake, and I suspect no one will till after its too late.

Ontario calls it "John Tory Syndrome"

johndoe124 said...

It's not Danielle Smith, it's Albertans. They are no longer a beacon for Liberty. Soon they will be just like Ontario and the circle will be complete. Canada will be a Socialist-Fascist State.

hatrock said...

Good point johndoe124. I wonder if with all the new people moving to Alberta from more liberal provinces that aren't so conservative and expect more gov't stuff and nanny-statism like in BC and Ontario. As well, all the Sask conservatives that were here have now gone back. Look no further than Calgary for the mayor they picked.

Anonymous said...

What do dogs do to poles?

Ya, this poll ain't worth $hit...

Wait until election day to count your chickens.

Anonymous said...

Gary Mar will be elected leader, and people will gradually go back to the Wildrose Party, when they see what a left wing liberal Mar is. Give it time. The media tends to get excited when there is a leadership race, but it will amount to nothing. Louise

Alex said...

Good. I like underdogs and this was always going to be a mighty battle anyway. The Bigger the Government, the harder it falls.

I wonder if it has anything to do with bribing Albertans with thier own money for stadiums like a bunch of spoiled Quebecers.

Trevor said...

This poll is useless. Without a leader people can project their own wishes onto the imaginary PC leader. Next election PC's with a minority, Wildrose official opposition, Liberals will benefit from vote splits but still be out in the cold. Some lefties vote PC to stop the Wildrose. Hopefully Dave Taylor disappears in a puff of smoke and takes the Alberta Party with him.

PC - 40
WR - 26
Lib - 14
NDP - 3