PCs got 1/3 of Liberals and previous PCers plus a new public union vote.
That's the short jist of it. I crunched the numbers and something was uncanny.
The numbers are uncanny. You have to go all the way back to Klein in 2001 to find the old PC stalwart voters. They didn't show up in 2004 or 2008. But they came back this election. Look at this...
|501,063||PCs in 2008|
|378,023||conservatives who left PCs to WR in 2012|
|123,040||conservatives/PCs remaining in PCs in 2012|
|251,158||Liberals in 2008|
|46,174||Liberals to NDP in 2012|
|127,642||Liberals in 2012|
|77,342||Liberals to PCs in 2012|
|31%||% of Liberals to PCs in 2012|
|567,050||PCs in 2012|
|200,382||conservatives and liberals in PCs in 2012|
|366,668||New (former?) PC voters in 2012|
|366,672||Voter turnout diff 2008 to 2012|
IT'S THE SAME AMOUNT!!!! In summary, a third of Liberals went PC because they were scaredy-pants of the Wildrose, and somehow the PCs got votes from a magical voter land, perhaps this was the voter turnout difference.
Who are these magical out-of-nowhere PC people? Several theories:
- PC went begging to all the former PC voters in some old list that haven't voted in a decade
- Slew of public union gov't workers, teachers, and their families. Don't forget how much the unions went on a push poll rampage.
- I also think in the final four days, there were about 100,000 PC supporters who'd previously said in polls that they'd vote Wildrose, and chickened out.