Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Alberta election 2012 - The Hangover Analysis

PCs got 1/3 of Liberals and previous PCers plus a new public union vote.

That's the short jist of it.  I crunched the numbers and something was uncanny.

The numbers are uncanny.  You have to go all the way back to Klein in 2001 to find the old PC stalwart voters.  They didn't show up in 2004 or 2008.  But they came back this election.  Look at this...

501,063PCs in 2008
378,023conservatives who left PCs to WR in 2012
123,040conservatives/PCs remaining in PCs in 2012

251,158Liberals in 2008
  46,174Liberals to NDP in 2012
127,642Liberals in 2012
  77,342Liberals to PCs in 2012
     31%% of Liberals to PCs in 2012

567,050PCs in 2012
200,382conservatives and liberals in PCs in 2012
366,668New (former?) PC voters in 2012
366,672Voter turnout diff 2008 to 2012

IT'S THE SAME AMOUNT!!!!   In summary, a third of Liberals went PC because they were scaredy-pants of the Wildrose, and somehow the PCs got votes from a magical voter land, perhaps this was the voter turnout difference.

Who are these magical out-of-nowhere PC people?  Several theories:
  1. PC went begging to all the former PC voters in some old list that haven't voted in a decade
  2. Slew of public union gov't workers, teachers, and their families.  Don't forget how much the unions went on a  push poll rampage.
  3. I also think in the final four days, there were about 100,000 PC supporters who'd previously said in polls that they'd vote Wildrose, and chickened out.  

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