Thursday, July 08, 2010

Iggy on the GG: then, now, and the future...

Two months ago:

“We’ve considered the question and we think the right way to go here is to reappoint Michaëlle Jean.” 

“I want to congratulate David Johnston for his appointment as Canada’s 28th Governor General.

“David Johnston’s dedication to learning and innovation – which are essential to Canada’s success – combined with his legal expertise the constitutional knowledge makes him an ideal choice for Governor General."
So Mr. Ignatieff, which is it?  The "right way" or "an ideal choice"?

As much as I'm not a fan of summer polls, especially from Ekos (Greens above 11% my ass), is it any wonder Liberal support has dipped below 25%?

Good timing, because of Senators picking apart the budget bill, the Conservatives are now ready to "rock and roll" for a fall election.
[Conservative Senator and campaign manager, Doug] Finley said he's hopeful senators will eventually bow to the will of the elected Commons, which has already approved the bill. But if they don't, he said: "Let's dance."

"We're ready to go to an election if we have to. The buses, the planes, the trains, the money, the boardroom — everything's ready to rock and roll," said Finley.

"We're in good shape for an election."
Now being the Bob Rae/PowerCorp conspirator theorist that I am, I believe the Rae Liberals will help trigger an election somehow, and cut their losses.  Then Ignatieff will step down but stay on as an MP (if he wins). Regardless of that though, he'll continue his abysmal attendance record (307th worst) but then announce he's not running again and will return to Harvard.  It's obvious Ignatieff has no passion for being an MP, only PM.

With Jack Layton's health in question, although he'll likely run come a fall election as there's no time for the Dippers to have a leadership race.  Afterward though, Jack may step down, and some Dippers may be more comfortable with merging with the Liberals.  Then let the Liberal Democrat merger/coalition massively ramp up with Bob Rae being "the great uniter".

Surely many soft Liberals supporters won't stick around and while some will migrate to the Conservatives, don't be surprised at Green numbers rising and a push to oust Elizabeth May who will once again lose against a Conservative cabinet minister, Gary Lunn, in BC.

If the Conservatives win a majority this fall, the Liberal leadership race will take a year or two, and Bob Rae will want that to happen, to ensure he's 'democratically elected', unlike his old roommate, to legitimize his support within the party.  The big question of course will be the merger, because nothing else will really be supported.  If any other Liberal leadership candidate comes forward against a merger, say Dominic LeBlanc, Gerard Kennedy, Martin Couchon, or heck, even a Justin Trudeau, will they be able to unite the Liberals again.

For the NDP, if Thomas Muclair gets reelected, he has a good shot at becoming the next NDP leader. And if he's anti-merger, then nothing will change.  If Muclair doesn't win, then who knows will emerge.  Regardless, the Harper Conservatives will enjoy more time in government while the new opposition party leaders get their feet wet and try to win the trust of Canadians.

All of this news is good for Conservatives and don't think Harper hasn't thought out all of the scenarios in his continued long-game to replace the Liberals as the natural governing party of Canada.


Anonymous said...

It makes common sense to me and surely the Cons will come out of this with a majority - unless something really dismal surfaces. I'm sure the scenario will pan out close to what you perceive here and it will fall into place. Somehow, people with moxy have known this for some time. The only ones who are out-of-touch are the Libs and Dips and the Greens are irrelevant.
Good analogy and I guess we shall see how this one plays out.

Jeff said...

Scripting the future as much as you have is rife with surprises. Nevertheless, the future looks bright for Conservatives. Conservative supporters get nervous because so many detractors stand in our way. But the detractors have served to make us collectively more disciplined whereas Liberals continue to freelance because they don't fear media scrutiny.

hunter said...

Good point Jeff, the Liberals count on the media support. What has been happening is that the very support they rely on is making Canadians turn away from them. The media is over selling the Liberals. to the radio said...

The case for reappointing the GG was poor.
Convention for the last hundred years is a term of five years, more or less.
Ignatieff should understand that.
And he obviously doesn't.

The PM understood most clearly that her 'time was up'.

Anonymous said...

I think the difference in the language Ignatieff used about the GG is that he did not have anything to do with the statement issued today.
Ignatieff is in China. Dateline for the Liberal release about the GG is Ottawa.

Probably written by Donolo.

L said...

You are right: PM Harper has all of his options well in hand. He has grown into his job in an amazing way, especially on the international stage of late. Mr Stimulus Obama was even brought to our competent PM's way of thinking. The PM sought widely and was confident about doing the right thing for his fellow Canadians, which this appointment of the next GG was. Iggy simply does not have time to grow this much as a leader, so he will be gone (thankfully) soon.