Monday, October 27, 2008

Quebelection 2008: And they're off!

It appears that Quebeckers will head to the polls on December 8th. Last week, two ADQ MNAs crossed the floor to the Liberals.

With that and other things there are some preliminary questions:

1. Will Mario Dumont's ADQ Party continue with the momentum from last election or has Liberal Premier Jean Charest staved it off with good management and the trust of Quebeckers?

  • My bets are with Jean Charest. Conservatives federally didn't make a breakthrough and although there is a loose affiliation between Harper's Conservatives and Dumont's ADQ, voters may equate the two. Charest is the middle ground.
2. With the Bloc Quebecois continuing to have 49 seats in the House of Commons federally, will this translate into voters flocking to the Parti Quebecois provincially?
  • No. A lot of the Bloc voters weren't hard core separatists like the PQ are.

3. What will be the defining issue this election?

  • It's the economy, stupid!

Overall, unlike 10 years ago, I'm hearing a lot of great things about Quebec, Montreal in particular. With the 400 year anniversary of Quebec City, Quebec pride is at an all time high. But it doesn't seem to be equated with sovereignty/separatism other than seeing that the rest of Canada does, in fact, see them as a special nation within our dominion.

So we'll see which party gets glued to that Quebec pride on December 8th. I predict a stronger Charest Liberal minority.

1 comment:

Patrick Ross said...

The ADQ almost certainly won't maintain its momentum. When I looked earlier today, the ADQ was trailing the PQ by 21 points in Public Opinion polls.

I know that federalist parties tend to get a "ballot box bonus" in Quebec, in terms of voters who decline to answer polls but quietly show up to vote, but 21% is an awfully large margin to try to overcome.