Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Democratic Race post Penn.

With 99% of the precincts reporting in the Pennsylvania democratic primary, 55% for Hillary and 45% for Obama, with 158 regular pledged delegates up for grabs, and after all the wait and hoopla, Hillary really only put a 16 delegate dent into Obama's lead. Big frickin' deal.


[Before Penn. Regular] + [Before Penn. Super] + [Regular Penn. Delegates] = [Current Total]

1254 + 254 + 87 = 1595

1416 + 230 + 71 = 1717 (+122)

The question over the next couple weeks before the May 6th Indiana and North Carolina primaries is do the superdelegates believe that Obama can beat McCain?

I would say so. Not only did Obama cut into Hillary's 20-30 point lead in Pennsylvania, but he has been able to cut into Hillary's superdelegate lead big time by gaining over 85% of them in the past couple months.

Superdelegates are being cautious.

After the May 6th primaries, I predict this race is over because the remaining 312 superdelegates will migrate to Obama when he wins North Carolina and stays within 5 points in Indiana leaving little chance for Hillary to win.

I think the Democratic party won't include the missed Florida and Michigan primaries unless the race is very, very tight, but by that time, will the candidates have any money left?

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