Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Conservatives to pick new leader on May 27, 2017

 #cpc #cdnpoli #cpcldr2017 #cpcldr
 It has been a long time since the CPC membership elected a leader. You'll have to go back to 2004 when Stephen Harper won the race, making this particular election 13 years since.  No different, really, then when Paul Martin took the reigns from Jean Chretien.

During Harper's time, the Liberals had six leaders:

  1. Paul Martin (elected) - Prime Minister
  2. Bill Graham (interim)
  3. Stephane Dion (elected)
  4. Michael Ignatieff (elected)
  5. Bob Rae (interim)
  6. Justin Trudeau (elected) - Prime Minister

Again, no different, really, than what Chretien faced against six different conservative opposition leaders:

  1. Preston Manning (Reform, elected)
  2. Deborah Grey (Canadian Alliance, interim)
  3. Stockwell Day (Canadian Alliance, elected)
  4. John Reynolds (Canadian Alliance, interim)
  5. Stephen Harper (Canadian Alliance, elected)
  6. Grant Hill (Canadian Alliance, interim)
    Stephen Harper (Conservative, elected) - Prime Minister

For this new race, the feelers have been sent out.  With 16 months, that gives any hopeful enough time to build interest and momentum, fundraise, organize a national campaign team in every major city and region, and campaign.

However, if we are to consider the above pattern of opposition leaders, we could surmise, whomever wins this race, would not become prime minister, but would lose the next election in four years, spurring a new race, then again that leader not winning.  It would theoretically be on the third elected leader who would have a chance at becoming prime minister.

That is not to say those who are interested should make a run for it now to get their name out there and the beginnings of a very long-term campaign organization.

But to think that Trudeau is a one-term prime minister, for a Conservative, is overly optimistic.  The NDP leadership is in a vacuum and Trudeau will continue to pull from the left.   Further, Chretien and Harper won three elections with their party remaining in power for about 13 years.  It is not unreasonable to think history won't repeat itself and we'll see the following.

2017:  Elected Leader 1
2019:  Election loss
2019:  Elected Leader 1 steps down.  Interim leader chosen.
2021:  Elected Leader 2
2023:  Election loss
2023:  Elected Leader 2 steps down.  Interim leader chosen.
2025:  Elected Leader 3
2027:  Election WIN

What would be telling, and different is if the 2019 and/or 2023 elections had a minority government.  Then it's difficult to say how the rest of the pattern works out, because remember, Harper lost his first election to Martin, although Martin won with a minority.  Harper then won a minority.  This was a long transition period for Canadians to move from Liberal dominance to a newly merged Conservative Party.

My point is, whoever is running to be leader now or later, has to play the long game, as Stephen Harper was so brilliant to achieve for his electoral success.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree it will be an uphill battle to win in 2019, but I don't think the party should throw in the towel as a lot can happen in four years so best to aim for a win. A couple of problems with past comparisons is in the 90s the right was divided and neither the PCs or Reform Party could realistically mount a challenge on their own. By contrast the Conservatives are united as one party and have a much stronger opposition than they did in the 90s. As for Harper being in for ten years, the first two were minority governments meaning the Liberals didn't really have time to rebuild and instead had to be in election mode at all times. By contrast the Tories have a full four years to do so. In addition changing leaders tends to make things harder so I think as long as the next leader increases the party's share of the popular vote, he or she should get a second kick at the can even if they don't win. off course if the party does worse, then the replacement needs to resign.

Dollops said...

We can't ignore the potential game-changer to the South. Anyone but Trump will leave things at the ho-hum, their cronies or ours, stage but if Trump is elected all bets are off worldwide. He could be a huge screwup or the restorer of ethics and honor in citizens and government -- it is unlikely there will be any middle ground because the left will throw everything they have at him. We don't have to choose a leader until after we know the outcome of their election and how Trump, if elected, will rise to the challenge. Let us bide our time and watch, hopefully, for paradigm change.

MontrealMarek said...

The Canadian economy will be the biggest factor in the next election. So far the Liberals have done all the wrong moves so I am pretty optimistic that the Conservatives will do well next election.