Monday, September 15, 2008

Day 8 of the Federalection - Another seat projection

Harris Decima seat projection - Sept. 14/08:

169 Conservatives
62 Liberals
46 Bloc Quebecois
30 New Democrats
1 Independent
0 Green

I think the Conservative and Bloc predictions are too high, and the NDP is too low. I still stand at 157 seats for the Conservatives, Bloc around 40, NDP around 35, Liberals around 80, and Greens 0.

But that is much different than this... which would translate into another minority.

CPAC-Nanos released Sept. 15/08:
37% Conservatives
31% Liberals
18% New Democrats
9% Greens
6% Bloc Quebecois

Don't forget that Liberal grassroots support is very soft, where Conservative is quite strong. Are the soft Liberals even going to vote or trickle through the NDP to the Greens? My guess is that voter turnout will be very low this election <60%. Conservatives who want a majority are going to vote.

The key for the Conservatives and Harper is to not peak too soon, which is why the campaigns on the ground aren't going full tilt. Heck, the Liberals don't even have enough candidates!

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