Friday, February 09, 2007

Ad Fad Bad Glad - Polls Schmolls

Do you remember in 1993, when then campaign manager of the PC Party of Canada, and current PC Party of Ontario leader, John Tory, ran those attack ads of Jean Chretien's face? That was mean. It was like young kids making fun of another's disability. It completely backfired and helped Campbell Tories reduced to two seats.

Do you remember in 1997 when the Reform Party ran attack ads against the Liberals and Tories showing how many leaders there have been from Quebec (Chretien, Mulroney, Trudeau, Charest)? Was it mean? No. It was simply telling the truth, but it did have a negative tone to it.

I saw the daily poll numbers for that. The Reform Party saw a quick jump of about 5 points and the Charest led PC Party saw a drop of the same. Then Charest went on TV and did an interview. He was asked abou the ad. He said, and I'll never forget it, "Preston Manning is a bigot." The next day, those 5 points flipped back around. Good, quick spin on Charest's part, but the ads probably solidied the Reform base more than anything.

This week, you saw it--the polls showing that a majority of Canadians found the Tory ads saying "Stephane Dion is not a leader" was not fair or effective. This was plastered all over the front covers and on news websites like CTV. Blogger Calgary Grit gives some insight.

Yeah but. .. but they worked.

Have you seen the latest poll? Probably not, because it's very favourable for the Conservative Party. Take the Toronto Star for instance. This article is buried somewhere in the website, but nowhere on the front page. I found it by searching Google. But notice what is says...

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Poll gives Tories the edge

Feb 08, 2007 06:21 PM
Canadian Press

MONTREAL – A recent poll suggests the Conservatives have a slight lead over the Liberals.
The Leger Marketing survey gives the Tories 38 per cent support, the Liberals 31 per cent, the NDP 14 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois eight per cent.

In Quebec, the Liberals (32 per cent) and the Bloc (31) are in a battle and are followed by the Conservatives at 24 per cent.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are at 40 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 35 per cent.
The poll of 1,500 Canadians was conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 4, a period shortly after the Conservatives unveiled ads critical of Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

The national results are considered accurate within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

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Slight lead? Slight? That's a 7 point margin and the Conservatives are nipping at the nose of a majority. You know, if the Liberals were a couple points ahead, this would be front page news. I'm sick of the bias in Canadian mainstream media. And so is our Prime Minister. You see why the Conservatives had to run those ads?

Like any leader, Stephane Dion has his faults. When he was younger, he was a separatist, but was converted one night talking to older friends after getting drunk. The guy does not speak English very well. His policies? I don't even want to go there.

The question is, has the mainstream media picked up on any of this stuff today, like they did when Stephen Harper won the Conservative leadership? Hell, no.

The ads were balsy, almost crossed that fine line, but they worked. They showed actual verbal exchanges of Iggy and Dion at the leadership debates. Were they unfair? Only, I think, because Dion says attacks against him are "unfair".

But were they mean?

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