Wednesday, November 08, 2006

How the U.S. Election 2006 will affect Harper

U.S. Election 2006: Democrats beat the Republicans = Giuliani next president = good news for Harper

I haven't commented much on the U.S., but what will this mean for Canada? With the Democrats controlling both houses, Bush will have to adjust some policy, that's for sure, but what about the next U.S. and Canadian election?

Americans went out on a limb having the Republicans control both houses AND the presidency, but generally they want to balance things between the executive and legislative bodies. That's why this is good news for Rudy Giuliani, who I predicted to friends and family would become the next President of the U.S. and beat Hillary Clinton by at least 5 points. Polls have indicated this for sometime now.

There is talk that the next president should be an outsider. Well, Bush was an outsider, so I'm not sure if that has any credence or perhaps that these are quietly planted spin doctors in favour of Rudy, who is an outsider to Washington DC, and well respected in both parties.

So with Rudy in the White House starting in 2009, what about Stephen Harper?

Ontario likes to balance things out too. Typically if they have a Liberal or NDP government provincially, they then vote conservative federally. So as long as Dalton McGuinty continues as he has, he'll likely win the next election.

Assuming everything is as it is now, even after the Income Trust decision, next election, which some say is next year, the federal Conservatives would win another minority and Stephen Harper would still be Prime Minister. (Really, do any of the current Liberal leadership candidates stand a chance?)

What about the election after that, whenever it is? I think if a Canadian federal election were held next year in 2007, and a minority results, the next election would be 2009, after Rudy becomes president. And if the McGuinty Liberals are still in Ontario then Mr. Harper will be Prime Minister for quite some time.

And I think Stephen and Rudy will get along quite well and we won't hear the tired leftist argument comparing Harper to Bush.

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