Why an Ontario political party should not help federally and vice versa
The article below shows how Ontarians provincial election results continue to massively affect the next federal election.
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/exclusive-poll-reveals-doug-ford-factor-a-big-problem-for-scheers-conservatives-in-ontario
Look at the history, particularly post-WWII.
Provincially, the majority of Ontarians will vote in the next election for the other party that is not in power federally about 86% of the time.
Federally, the majority of Ontarians will vote for the other party that is not in power provincially about 65% of the time, which is what appears will happen on October 21, 2019 federally as the article above certainly indicates that the majority of Ontarians will vote for the federal Liberals over the provincial PCs.
So I continue to wonder why a federal party would help their provincial cousins in Ontario knowing they are going against history a large majority of the time and vice versa.
If anything, they should remain quiet, stay far away, and hope they lose.
| Ontario | Canada | Ontarians balance provincially? | Ontarians balance federally? | |
| 1940 | Liberal | Liberal | ||
| 1941 | Liberal | Liberal | ||
| 1942 | Liberal | Liberal | ||
| 1943 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1944 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1945 | PC | Liberal | Y | Y |
| 1946 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1947 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1948 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1949 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1950 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1951 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1952 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1953 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1954 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1955 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1956 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1957 | PC | PC | N | |
| 1958 | PC | PC | N | |
| 1959 | PC | PC | N | |
| 1960 | PC | PC | ||
| 1961 | PC | PC | ||
| 1962 | PC | PC | N | |
| 1963 | PC | Liberal | Y | Y |
| 1964 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1965 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1966 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1967 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1968 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1969 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1970 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1971 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1972 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1973 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1974 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1975 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1976 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1977 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1978 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1979 | PC | PC | N | |
| 1980 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1981 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1982 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1983 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1984 | PC | PC | N | |
| 1985 | PC | PC | N | |
| 1986 | PC | PC | ||
| 1987 | Liberal | PC | Y | |
| 1988 | Liberal | PC | Y | |
| 1989 | Liberal | PC | ||
| 1990 | NDP | PC | Y | |
| 1991 | NDP | PC | ||
| 1992 | NDP | PC | ||
| 1993 | NDP | Liberal | N | |
| 1994 | NDP | Liberal | ||
| 1995 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1996 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1997 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 1998 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 1999 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 2000 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 2001 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 2002 | PC | Liberal | ||
| 2003 | Liberal | Liberal | N | |
| 2004 | Liberal | Liberal | N | |
| 2005 | Liberal | Liberal | ||
| 2006 | Liberal | Conservative | Y | |
| 2007 | Liberal | Conservative | Y | |
| 2008 | Liberal | Conservative | Y | |
| 2009 | Liberal | Conservative | ||
| 2010 | Liberal | Conservative | ||
| 2011 | Liberal | Conservative | Y | Y |
| 2012 | Liberal | Conservative | ||
| 2013 | Liberal | Conservative | ||
| 2014 | Liberal | Conservative | Y | |
| 2015 | Liberal | Liberal | N | |
| 2016 | Liberal | Liberal | ||
| 2017 | Liberal | Liberal | ||
| 2018 | PC | Liberal | Y | |
| 2019 | PC | ? | ||
| 19 | 15 | |||
| 22 | 23 | |||
| 0.863636364 | 0.652173913 |
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