Insenaty! It's back! Senate accountability at the forefront.

Like I said a long time ago, I've always held the belief that Prime Minister Harper made interesting appointments to the Senate in order to draw much more attention to it.

Who knew that former CTV journalists now senators Mike Duffy and Pamela Wallin would be at the forefront of that attention, and investigated by former colleague Robert Fife. (Nevermind Senator Patrick Brazeau and his current charge).

So now everyone is saying that senators need more accountability on their expenses.  Well, duh. Welcome to the debate guys.  This isn't new news.  I could go back into history and show you all the abuses by members of the "sleepy chamber" until the cows come home.

But I know an excellent way to hold senators accountable!  Elect them!   So anyone who says we need accountability in the Senate without saying we should elect them is experiencing what I call "insenaty".  It's the thought process involved in wanting something changed with the senate without actually wanting senate reform.

And further to that, on the left hand, we have NDP leader Tom Mulcair, who has questions about his past as well, continually saying we should abolish the senate.  Well of course the NDP would say that.  It's the easy answer here, isn't it?  They had one member in there appointed a while ago by Trudeau.  They'll never win the House, unless they try and sneak what ever version of proportional representation through in order to sneak into power.  Abolishing the Senate is a daunting constitutional change, and frankly, dangerous to our democracy even though the Senate is essentially an appointed body.  Can you imagine an NDP government without any check and balance to the crazy legislation they'd pass in the House?  Well that's exactly what they want.  Don't be fooled folks!

So when you read or hear someone calling for senator accountability, ask yourself:  "Why aren't they asking for them to be elected?"

NDP and Liberals

With the passing, deification, and Saturday's memorial for Jack Layton, pundits, bloggers, and journos were quick to begin the speculation on who should run for the NDP leadership.  Names such as party prez Brian Topp and Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair, uh, top the list.  And Jack was right in his final letter saying they need to pick someone as soon as possible.  Because with Quebec Solidaire member Nycole Turmel as it's interim leader, the worse the NDP will fair in the public eye or be taken seriously in the House of Commons and in the media.

For the other interim leader, Liberal Bob Rae says a merger with the NDP is not his focus "at the moment".  Ah Bob, always leaves a slight crack open.  As the Liberals gear up for a meeting among MPs, senators, and more failed candidates than ever, they need to do a lot of things to get back in the game.  Merging with the NDP right now is the dumbest thing the Liberals could do from a position of great weakness.  As well, that all depends on who they and the NDP pick for their leader.  And even if that leadership candidate says a merger is not in the cards, I'd dare them to ask Stephen Harper and Peter Mackay their thoughts on that.

Even though he said he's not running (they all say that at the start), the best hope for the Liberals, in my humble Hatrock opinion is Justin Trudeau--maybe not in 2015 but 2019.  That said, I've heard of absolutely no rumours of anyone running, which is how Bob would like it.  My guess is that a lot of Liberals think Harper will win the next election, but then the public will grow tired of him and that's the time to run.  Bob Rae will finally step down and a new Liberal leader will emerge.  And if I was Justin Trudeau, that's exactly what I'd do.

Entering the political fray is about three things:  patience, timing, and momentum.

So back to the NDP speculation.  Patience is short, the timing is in the next month, and the momentum is derived from a build up of the speculation.  I'll be honest I don't know who Brian Topp is, although I've heard the name before and that name is certainly being built-up.  So is former Manitoba premier and Canadian Ambassador Gary Doer.  The more they resist the urge to run, the more build-up and support occurs.  That said, Thomas Mulcair has the best advantage being from Quebec, which is where most of the NDP is from now.  Olivia Chow should not run because she won't win, which will be an embarrassment.

Meanwhile, Stephen Harper and the Conservative government sit back and run the show with a majority in both houses and yet not too much attention on them.

Election looming?

The big question on Parliament Hill is whether the Liberals are going to use a sneaky non-confidence motion to bring down the government.  Of course, for that motion to pass, they need the support of the Bloc and NDP, not one or the other.  Bloc will be there.

But will the NDP?  All indicators to me are no.  Jack doesn't want to.  He just got out of a successful hip surgery and reeling from prostate cancer treatment.  So I don't think he's in a mood to go to an election when his party is setting as high in seat total as it will for a while.  That dog won't bark.

So I believe the Liberals are using this to put a feeler out there to see what the NDP would do.  Now, Quebec NDP MP Thomas Muclair would appear to want an election and take the leadership, but is adamant this isn't true. Hmm.  The Bloc have supposedly made a quiet deal with the NDP in Muclair's riding to ensure he wins, and preventing the Liberal candidate there, former Liberal Quebec lieutenant Martin Couchon doesn't win.  Confused?  Moi aussi.

Even if the motion doesn't pass, the Liberals then get to see what the public reaction is to it and can then attack the NDP for supporting the government.  THEN, when the budget comes, the Liberals will know the NDP will also probably vote for it, potentially bleeding more support from the NDP.

This would seem the Liberals are trying to grab support from the left flank and ignoring the centre-right and even the centre where the Conservatives are becoming stronger.

OR, has Ignatieff been tricked into thinking that this is the wise approach?

If you were Bob Rae, you'd want to weaken the NDP, force an election so Ignatieff resigns, win the leadership, then make a deal with the NDP to merge the parties into the Liberal Democrats, and voila, possibly have more support than the Conservatives, then force another election next Spring.

So in summary, will there be an election soon?

Only if Jack can prevent it.

Iggy on the GG: then, now, and the future...

Two months ago:

“We’ve considered the question and we think the right way to go here is to reappoint Michaëlle Jean.” 

Now:

“I want to congratulate David Johnston for his appointment as Canada’s 28th Governor General.

“David Johnston’s dedication to learning and innovation – which are essential to Canada’s success – combined with his legal expertise the constitutional knowledge makes him an ideal choice for Governor General."

So Mr. Ignatieff, which is it?  The "right way" or "an ideal choice"?

As much as I'm not a fan of summer polls, especially from Ekos (Greens above 11% my ass), is it any wonder Liberal support has dipped below 25%?

Good timing, because of Senators picking apart the budget bill, the Conservatives are now ready to "rock and roll" for a fall election.

[Conservative Senator and campaign manager, Doug] Finley said he's hopeful senators will eventually bow to the will of the elected Commons, which has already approved the bill. But if they don't, he said: "Let's dance."

"We're ready to go to an election if we have to. The buses, the planes, the trains, the money, the boardroom — everything's ready to rock and roll," said Finley.

"We're in good shape for an election."

Now being the Bob Rae/PowerCorp conspirator theorist that I am, I believe the Rae Liberals will help trigger an election somehow, and cut their losses.  Then Ignatieff will step down but stay on as an MP (if he wins). Regardless of that though, he'll continue his abysmal attendance record (307th worst) but then announce he's not running again and will return to Harvard.  It's obvious Ignatieff has no passion for being an MP, only PM.

With Jack Layton's health in question, although he'll likely run come a fall election as there's no time for the Dippers to have a leadership race.  Afterward though, Jack may step down, and some Dippers may be more comfortable with merging with the Liberals.  Then let the Liberal Democrat merger/coalition massively ramp up with Bob Rae being "the great uniter".

Surely many soft Liberals supporters won't stick around and while some will migrate to the Conservatives, don't be surprised at Green numbers rising and a push to oust Elizabeth May who will once again lose against a Conservative cabinet minister, Gary Lunn, in BC.

If the Conservatives win a majority this fall, the Liberal leadership race will take a year or two, and Bob Rae will want that to happen, to ensure he's 'democratically elected', unlike his old roommate, to legitimize his support within the party.  The big question of course will be the merger, because nothing else will really be supported.  If any other Liberal leadership candidate comes forward against a merger, say Dominic LeBlanc, Gerard Kennedy, Martin Couchon, or heck, even a Justin Trudeau, will they be able to unite the Liberals again.

For the NDP, if Thomas Muclair gets reelected, he has a good shot at becoming the next NDP leader. And if he's anti-merger, then nothing will change.  If Muclair doesn't win, then who knows will emerge.  Regardless, the Harper Conservatives will enjoy more time in government while the new opposition party leaders get their feet wet and try to win the trust of Canadians.

All of this news is good for Conservatives and don't think Harper hasn't thought out all of the scenarios in his continued long-game to replace the Liberals as the natural governing party of Canada.