Bob the Interim cont'd...

Hot off the wire, the Liberals have picked Bob Rae to be their interim leader.

Several Blogging Tories have suggested that this is really a ruse by Bob to eventually lead the party.  Now that Justin Trudeau says he doesn't want to lead the party, and he was the favourite, really, who else will step forward besides Dominic Leblanc?

Not only that, but in four years, who'd really want to go up against the very strong Conservative and NDP parties?

With the government about to remove taxpayer party subsidies, the Liberals are in trouble as far as fundraising compared to the CPC and NDP.

So, I kind of agree and predict the following will play out.  There won't be any real candidates step forward and the Liberal bagmen will let Bob continue and fight the next election, which he'll lose obviously.  Then, in 2016, there will finally be a competitive Liberal race, Justin will run and win, and then contest the 2019 election.  How that election will play out, I have no idea, and neither does anyone really.

Now, there's no denying that Bob wants to merge the Liberals with the NDP, but the Liberals were only open to it when they had the upperhand to swallow the NDP.  That's not true anymore.

Bob Rae continually gets voted as the best parliamentarian in the House of Commons by his fellow MPs likely due to his gentlemanly, calm demeanour.  With Jack Layton announcing that his caucus will refrain from heckling, that Harper has certainly toned it down over the years, methinks Question Period is going to be pretty boring for a while. 

Oh wait, Thomas Mulcair won his seat though, didn't he?

Iggy on the GG: then, now, and the future...

Two months ago:

“We’ve considered the question and we think the right way to go here is to reappoint Michaëlle Jean.” 

Now:

“I want to congratulate David Johnston for his appointment as Canada’s 28th Governor General.

“David Johnston’s dedication to learning and innovation – which are essential to Canada’s success – combined with his legal expertise the constitutional knowledge makes him an ideal choice for Governor General."

So Mr. Ignatieff, which is it?  The "right way" or "an ideal choice"?

As much as I'm not a fan of summer polls, especially from Ekos (Greens above 11% my ass), is it any wonder Liberal support has dipped below 25%?

Good timing, because of Senators picking apart the budget bill, the Conservatives are now ready to "rock and roll" for a fall election.

[Conservative Senator and campaign manager, Doug] Finley said he's hopeful senators will eventually bow to the will of the elected Commons, which has already approved the bill. But if they don't, he said: "Let's dance."

"We're ready to go to an election if we have to. The buses, the planes, the trains, the money, the boardroom — everything's ready to rock and roll," said Finley.

"We're in good shape for an election."

Now being the Bob Rae/PowerCorp conspirator theorist that I am, I believe the Rae Liberals will help trigger an election somehow, and cut their losses.  Then Ignatieff will step down but stay on as an MP (if he wins). Regardless of that though, he'll continue his abysmal attendance record (307th worst) but then announce he's not running again and will return to Harvard.  It's obvious Ignatieff has no passion for being an MP, only PM.

With Jack Layton's health in question, although he'll likely run come a fall election as there's no time for the Dippers to have a leadership race.  Afterward though, Jack may step down, and some Dippers may be more comfortable with merging with the Liberals.  Then let the Liberal Democrat merger/coalition massively ramp up with Bob Rae being "the great uniter".

Surely many soft Liberals supporters won't stick around and while some will migrate to the Conservatives, don't be surprised at Green numbers rising and a push to oust Elizabeth May who will once again lose against a Conservative cabinet minister, Gary Lunn, in BC.

If the Conservatives win a majority this fall, the Liberal leadership race will take a year or two, and Bob Rae will want that to happen, to ensure he's 'democratically elected', unlike his old roommate, to legitimize his support within the party.  The big question of course will be the merger, because nothing else will really be supported.  If any other Liberal leadership candidate comes forward against a merger, say Dominic LeBlanc, Gerard Kennedy, Martin Couchon, or heck, even a Justin Trudeau, will they be able to unite the Liberals again.

For the NDP, if Thomas Muclair gets reelected, he has a good shot at becoming the next NDP leader. And if he's anti-merger, then nothing will change.  If Muclair doesn't win, then who knows will emerge.  Regardless, the Harper Conservatives will enjoy more time in government while the new opposition party leaders get their feet wet and try to win the trust of Canadians.

All of this news is good for Conservatives and don't think Harper hasn't thought out all of the scenarios in his continued long-game to replace the Liberals as the natural governing party of Canada.

Rob Silver asks the tough question

I've been glued to one of the best new political blogs, "Silver-Powers", a dual (duel?) blog on GlobeAndMail.com by two very bright party strategists, Liberal Rob Silver and Conservative Tim Powers.

One of Rob's latest postings asks THE tough question for Liberal MPs...

So either:

(a) The Liberal caucus was UNANIMOUS in supporting both the coalition and Dion as leader until May; or

(b) There are a bunch of MPs in the Liberal caucus who are both cowardly and whose word means little (or whose opinions change with the wind).

Really, this is a binary situation - make your choice.

Rob, a very good question, and I have an answer for you regarding why Liberal MPs do these types of things...

Very few have principle, they go whichever way the wind blows at the moment (or seems to blow), and thus, they have miscalculated the overwhelming view among Canadians that the coalition government isn't what we want, and why the polls show the Liberals at their lowest point in HISTORY.

Friends, that is NOT leadership. And this party wants to form government? That's how they've always been and always will be. If they can't even decide or stand up for anything, you really want them managing the economy at this time?

What drove them ALL to sign the letter for the Governor General? As your blogmate said, "The sniff of power."

Canadians saw that too.

Now that the sniff of power appears to be with Michael Ignatieff, leadership contender, Dominic LeBlanc has ended his bid and joined with Iggy. Too bad. Too bad the Liberal party doesn't respect democracy.

While the other contender, Bob Rae, has embraced the coalition because he's going to need new members joining from the NDP to be delegates at the Liberal convention, perhaps Ignatieff set him a trap and he fell into it.

Ignatieff never publicly said he's for or against the coalition and Bob Rae even had Ignatieff and LeBlanc show their public support for Stephane Dion as leader of the coalition government. I guess that is a wash, now that it appears Dion will step down (read: pushed out) in a few days at the Liberal caucus meeting instead of the originally planned May leadership convention in Vancouver.

Ignatieff's gut instinct was correct though, that the coalition is not a way to build the Liberal party, where it's Bob Rae's way to go.

Now that Dion is gone, and the party needs to accelerate that processes in getting a new leader, and that the coalition is now the so-called the backup plan, the Liberal caucus' new "instinct" is either:

A) the Liberals will support or abstain on the Conservative budget when the House starts up again in January, and resume with its May leadership convention, with Ignatieff having recently shored up caucus support, and Bob Rae will likely retreat from the coalition, but he'll be damaged goods,

or

B) the Liberals will vote against the budget and with new interim/permanent leader, Michael Ignatieff, already in place they will be 'ready' for a new election, and excited that they'll do better.

Ignatieff left the door open for Harper to have a strong budget.

I didn't mention the machinations of how the Liberals are picking their new leader, because frankly, it doesn't really matter. If the Liberal caucus does it this week and names Ignatieff as interim to replace Dion and decides it's not going to have a convention and says Ignatieff is permanent leader, it's going to divide the party for a while, but eventually, Liberals will balk, because "Ignatieff was going to be leader anyway, so get behind him or go hang out with Bob Rae."

So in my opinion, this coalition idea is as good as dead. And you know who's to thank? You. It's the thousands of Canadians who went out to show support for democracy and against the coalition takeover.

So now, it's up to Michael Ignatieff to decide if he wants to fight an election in February/March or if he wants to wait until May and spend cash on a leadership bid that he'll win anyway, raise money for the Liberals and then fight an election next fall.

Because I think he knows the Conservatives would win a majority in February/March, and so he'd will be opposition leader for 4 years.

That would be the smart thing to do, to wait, as it gives voters an opportunity to see who he is as opposition leader while they grow weary of Harper, otherwise, if he fights an election this February/March, people won't know him as well, and will be hesitant, while the Conservatives go neg on his ambition for power with the coalition, exposing his actual view against it and dividing the Liberals, while economic numbers improve, showing the Conservatives as good managers.