Hatrock's Unscientific U.S. Presidential Election Prediction 2016

Hillary Clinton:  308
Donald Trump:   230

Hillary will win the popular vote by +4.2% over Trump.

Why 308?  Because that's the number of seats there used to be in the Canadian House of Commons.  And 4.2 is like 42 and I like that number because it's the answer to life, the universe, and everything.

See, I told ya it was unscientific.

But also because 10 years ago, I predicted Hillary Clinton would be the next president after a two-term Barack Obama presidency.  I didn't think she'd beat Obama for the nomination then, so that made me believe she most certainly make another run at it, no matter what.  The Republicans have not had any candidate even close to the campaign machine capability, charisma, charm, and coolness that Obama has brought to the White House.

I have also not wasted much of my time and effort talking about Donald Trump.  But I will say this, one year ago, my grandma passed away.  Months before that I asked her what she thought of the U.S. presidential race.  She said:

"It's a zoo.  A total zoo."

And she was right.

It's Tea Time!

Since President Obama has been in power, his agenda has been an aggressive one.  Not realizing that many in his own majority party became reluctant to the drastic and massive changes in economic and health policies, he pushed anyway.

The result is where the Democrats had to battle on three fronts:

1.  The Tea Party. One of the biggest grassroots political movements in history. Mostly Republican and conservative.  These people are motivated and will certainly vote.  They think Obama is a socialist.  They are mostly tired of the government being involved in their life and are mad has hell!  While most of the Tea Baggers don't make over $250k a year, they're still pissed that Obama is taxing more out of those above that amount.

2.   Independents.  They'll balance this out, but they're not too happy with Obama or the Democrats either.  They may simply vote out incumbents, no matter which party, but they're more driven to vote out the party in power--the Democrats.  And as many independents can be fiscally conservative, those ones are pissed that Obama totally forgot about "pay as you go" but more especially on the job front.

3.  Democrats.  The lefties are ticked that Obama didn't deliver on their agenda--gay marriage, "don't ask don't tell", climate change legislation, and even more comprehensive health care reform.


As the Tea Party is a new thing, was the whole purpose of it to win these mid-terms?  I don't think they even know.  What's going to happen after this election when Republican presidential candidates start organizing their campaigns?  Which candidate will emerge as the Tea Party favourite, besides Sarah Palin?  Or will Tea Baggers split up into different camps, basically ending the movement?

I said it from the beginning that this Tea Party thing is a fad.  It's a fad because it doesn't REALLY have a leader at the front, or any formal organization.  And as a fad it will fade.  Just like the Obamatons did--but even they had a strong leader and an extremely well run campaign organization.

So to my Tea Bagging friends in the U.S.A, and you know who you are, enjoy the party while it lasts!  (That would be tonight by the way.)

U.S. Midterm Elections 2010 prediction

Senate:  Democrats hold by 4 seats (52-48)

House:  Republicans win by 4 seats

• Current (including vacant):  Dems 256 + GOP 179 = 435.
• 218 seats needed for majority. GOP gains +43.

Why?  The Tea Party/GOP base is waaaay more motivated than Democrats.

Obama gets caught in the middle.
The U.S. is at a stand-still, except for only a few minor non-partisan issues.

Canada wins due to Democrat protectionist attitudes no longer prevailing in the House.