Alberta PC leadership - 1st round

Saturday I sat at home debating whether to vote in this leadership race although I do not support the PC Party.  I ran some errands to fill in the day and drove by the Oliver Community League where the polling station was.  I parked and walked to the door and then had a strong feeling that I should turn around.  Then I said to myself, "You get to pick who you think would make the best premier."  So I entered and was quickly greeted by a volunteer.  I didn't have a $5 membership so I bought one in mostly quarters--coinage I'd never use and so I wouldn't waste a perfectly good $5 bill.

At that moment though I thought, "What are you doing? You can't stand this party and yet you have a membership now?"  Then the volunteer interrupted the thought and told me to take my membership and voting card to the desk and then to get a ballot.

I knew going in who'd I vote for.  Rick Orman--essentially the closest candidate to being an outsider in this race and a self-professed libertarian.  Unfortunately, his campaign never took hold

Why not Morton this time like last time for me?  I think most of us libertarian-conservative type folks had the same feeling about him.  As provincial treasurer, he saw the largest deficits in Alberta history.  To me, this simply shows a lack of leadership, and just following the party line.  Morton's biggest blunder was becoming treasurer in the first place instead of staying on the outside perhaps as it highlighted his "unconservativeness".  When a conservative stops being conservative, they lose support fast.  And in Ted's case, that's exactly what happened.

For Doug Griffiths, the relatively young MLA was smart to enter this race to keep his profile up.

So now onto the top three, if it's really even that; it's more like top one with scraps now.

With Mr. Integrity Gary Mar at 41%, sweeping Edmonton, will the remaining Redford and Horner campaigns abandon him as their second choice?  Will Horner garner the swift support of new Edmonton voters and Northern Alberta like Ed Stelmach did?  Ed had 15% and won so it's not out of the question but that was because Jim Dinning and Ted Morton were polarized enough and both from Southern Alberta to invigorate Edmonton and Northern folks to buy a membership and mark an "X" for Steady Eddie.

While most true conservatives and libertarians have already abandoned the PCs, where will those remaining park their support on the run off vote October 1st?  My bet is on Alison Redford or no one.

So now if there ever was a clear choice for libertarian-conservatives, it's certainly with Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party.  That is, if the party gets better organized and more media attention.  As I said to the National Post last month, it's not ready for prime-time governing, but a successful stint as official opposition, and being able to raise some real cash, the possibility of governing in say 2015 is not out of the question, if not as a serious challenge to the PCs.

Forty years with the same party in power is not healthy for any democracy.  I urge Albertans to vote for anyone but the PCs in the upcoming election.  Even if you're a soft PC supporter, you'll be doing the province a favour.

In the meantime, I'll be debating whether I'll be voting in the final run-off vote on October 1st. 

Rick Orman questions latest poll

Alberta PC leadership contender Rick Orman has challenged the validity of the latest poll released by Environics which put Gary Mar on top with 31%.

And he has every right to considering the unusual circumstances.

Not only that, but PC Party president, Bill Smith (no, not that Bill Smith) has also published a scathing rebuke of the release of this poll saying that it is a breach of the party rules.  Read blogger David Climenhaga's article for more info.  Here is the text from the PC Party website:

Statement on unauthorized use of membership list
The Progressive Conservative Association is very concerned with respect to the recent use of what appears to be a private Party membership list by a public research company. Any unauthorised and inappropriate use of our Association’s private membership lists  is absolutely unacceptable. The privacy of our members is of paramount importance to myself and our organisation.

We have been able confirm that the list did not come from the Party. What we have determined is that a list was given to a media outlet who subsequently gave it to a polling firm. We are surprised that any public research firm would use a list that was obtained in such a manner. Furthermore the list in question is not at all an accurate reflection of the membership that will be participating  in our leadership process.

We will be contacting all leadership campaigns regarding this issue . It should be noted that all Leadership Candidates signed a confidentiality agreement not to disclose or disseminate the membership list prior to receiving it.

The conduct in question does not reflect our Party’s values, our commitment to our membership, or the ideals expressed by all campaigns throughout this Leadership process.

Bill Smith
President PC Alberta

Why was a private list given to the media?  A list, by the way, that has my name on it from the previous leadership campaign where I bought a membership to vote.  I wonder if any lawsuits will result.

But I think we all know what really happened here.  Same with campaigns selling memberships at advanced polls.  So what happens now?  Will the guilty campaign's candidate have to resign?  Or will they put the blame on "overzealous supporters".

Again, if the party cannot even hold an above-the-board leadership vote, is this a reflection of how they govern the province by stretching and breaking rules?

Of course it is.

Where's the integrity?

There isn't any.

If this isn't enough to show you that it's time to punt these corrupt bastards out of office, then I think you should start to question your own political ethics and decide what's best for our provincial democracy.

Alberta PC leadership race - Southpark version

It's been a while since I've done this, but here we go!

Doug Griffiths

 Rick Orman

 Doug Horner

 Alison Redford

 

Gary Mar  

 Ted Morton

  

 Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, hoping Albertans choose none of the above

Premier Ed Stelmach on his way out...

Quoted in the National Post

In today's National Post, yours truly was quoted by journalist Kathryn Blaze Carlson on my views of  Alberta politics--particularly the PC leadership race.

“Everyone knows this is a chance to select the next premier, and people want to be involved in that process — I know a lot of NDP and Liberal voters who will [buy a Tory membership so they can cast a ballot],” said Mike Bayrak, an Edmonton-based blogger who was involved in Progressive Conservative campaigns until he became disenchanted with the party’s direction.

 “I used to be a Morton supporter, but I haven’t been impressed with him while he was finance minister and I disagree with his position on the Edmonton arena,” said Mr. Bayrak, who says his views today align with the Wildrose, a party he said is not quite ready for prime-time. “I like Orman’s libertarian stance, which is something he talks about often knowing it appeals to the Wildrose.”

Oh, yeah, by the way, my name is Mike Bayrak--I've never mentioned that on this blog before, and will likely stay that way.  I'm an Edmontonian and not involved in any provincial political party, and as you know, I describe myself as a libertarian conservative--economically slightly right of centre (I distaste private or public monopolies), and socially quite libertarian. 

The Wildrose Party most closely fits with my views and will likely vote for the candidate in my riding this time as she seems connected with the community (just tried to find her info on the Wildrose.ca website but couldn't!).  Sure I said they're "not fit for prime-time", and by that I mean, while there are some shining stars as candidates, some are not, and so I see them as possibly the official opposition, which will be good for them to gain more legislative experience and work out the kinks so they're fit to govern.  The party is going through growing pains trying to find the balance between grassroots and pragmatism.

Do I hope they become government in 2016?  You bet.  Why?  I don't see the PC party really changing, regardless of who leads it, which means the government won't either and after 40 years, it's about time.

Like the federal Liberals, the PC Party of Alberta needs to implode and find itself because I don't believe it has any sense of direction or vision, which is dangerous for a party that's actually governing this great province as we speak.

Alberta poll: PCs 54%, WR 16%...

Zoiks!

PCs at 54%
Wildrose at 16%
Liberals at 13.5%
NDP at 13.5%
Alberta Party at 2%
Undecided at 19%

It is summer and these numbers don't mean much, but the media and bloggers are dumping on Danielle Smith and the Wildrose for "plummeting".  That's what happens when you peak way too soon.

When Danielle went through a honeymoon period, the Wildrose was tops.  Mind you, Ed Stelmach was still intending to be leader and premier.  Since he's stepping down, the numbers have changed.  And now the PCs are currently in a leadership race, drawing support and attention.  I've always felt that the best the Wildrose can do in next year's election is official opposition somewhere at 10-18 seats.  But even now that seems difficult.  The problem is that the party touted itself as grassroots but had a top down management style as well, which ticked off a lot of riding associations and soft supporters.

"Hey, but the Liberals are in a leadership race too, why aren't their numbers up like the PCs?"  Because really, no one really cares about that race, other than maybe Raj Shermann.

The NDP haven't moved much.  And the Alberta Party?  Well, not much to say really.  Each will get 1-3 seats next time.

Anyway, when the PCs pick their leader, that's when a new poll will mean something, whether it's Gary Mar, Ted Morton, or Rick Orman vs. Danielle Smith, it'll really depend on how they're perceived ideologically.  For Danielle, the further left the PCs go with a leader, the better off she and the Wildrose are.

Edmonton downtown arena funding

Mayor Mandel and Premier Stelmach are meeting today to discuss funding for the new downtown Edmonton arena to host the Oilers, along with a casino, hotel, bars, restaurants and a whole entertainment area.

The project is $100 million short.

Mandel wants the province to kick in.  Stelmach's right for not just handing the money over, but the tax revenue generated from alcohol taxes alone (especially in this town) will eventually make up the amount.

Or why not a loan?  Wait, the province doesn't exactly have a good history with Oilers owners and loans, do they?

Or, here's another idea from Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith.

The leader of the Wildrose Alliance is saying "no" to the idea of tax hikes to help pay for a new arena in downtown Edmonton, but Danielle Smith has an idea of her own.

Smith is proposing a special lottery to help raise money for what would be the new home of the Oilers. Progressive Conservative Party leadership hopefuls Ted Morton and Alison Redford have both suggested that the province could help by raising sales taxes, even by just 1%.

Smith says under her plan, "interested Albertans" could buy tickets, with proceeds going towards arena construction. The City of Edmonton has a framework deal in place with the Katz Group, but the sides are still about $100 million short on funds.

Shame on Morton and Redford for their stupid tax idea.  Why should folks in Calgary pay for an Edmonton arena?  Is that their solution going forward to fund any new project?  Raise taxes?  I thought Morton was smarter than that.  Guess not.  Now I have no idea why I supported him when he ran for the PC leadership years ago.  I'm certainly not supporting him now.  (I haven't decided yet, but if I were to choose, Rick Orman is now on my radar although the PCs have completely lost my support.)

Anyway... a lottery?  A simple yet effective idea.  While I'm not sure it would generate enough revenue to make up the entire amount, it wouldn't hurt either.  I'd buy a $50 ticket.  Why?  Because I want a new arena downtown.  Those who don't want an arena, don't have to buy one.