Alison Redford to be new Alberta premier

While at a wedding cocktail reception on Saturday, several friends kept asking me what the results were as I was glued to my Twitter feed on my phone.  As the results came in and they were at half the polls reporting, I said she was going to win due to the inability for Gary Mar to get passed 45% and that Redford would get two-thirds of Doug Horner's second ballot choices.  It was still close, and when Mar pulled ahead by 5-6%, he still couldn't penetrate even 45%, I was pretty sure she'd win at that point.  On Twitter, Dave Rutherford was the first out of the gate stating her victory based on his sources.


Final Tally
37,101 (51.11%) Redford
35,491 (48.89%) Mar

Well, I will admit that I voted for her and Horner 2nd.  I voted for her for three reasons.  I watched the debate on Wednesday and was impressed with her strength and felt of the three candidates, she would best represent Alberta, but maybe not ideologically.  Secondly, I didn't want Mar to win as his ethics are questionable, and thirdly, Redford is said to be a liberal-progressive, which splits the PCs and is a win for Danielle Smith, who'd I'd prefer as premier.  Now, a lot more conservatives potentially will leave the PCs for the Wildrose Party, but only if Smith and Co. can prove themselves as a viable alternative.

An indication of that is only 78,176 members turned out to vote Saturday, which was an increase from the first ballot vote two weeks prior, but it is a large decrease from the 144,000 that voted in 2006 which saw Ed Stelmach shoot up the middle to win.  That's a big vacuum.

Despite all that, Redford is a relative unknown to many conservatives and I believe Albertans for the most part, will give her a shot to see what she can and cannot do.  It will be difficult for the Wildrose to paint her in a bad light while the honeymoon is on, and I thought the press release from Danielle Smith congratulating Redford on her win while slamming her when she hasn't had a chance to govern yet was in bad form.

The fall session was to start October 25th, but Redford has postponed it, a budget, and a potential election until the spring.  The Wildrose is not happy with this, but while I took a tour of the Legislature building yesterday, the tour guide apologized for the state of the Assembly Chamber itself.  I took the picture below from the public gallery to show all the scaffolding they must use to change the 600 lightbulbs to energy-saving ones as they cannot fit a scissor-lift through the doors.  As well, they are painting.  I don't see them finishing and cleaning up by October 25th.  Whether that's the reason, I really don't know, but found it interesting and coincidental under the circumstances.

As we began our tour, media were on hand, waiting for someone, and I thought perhaps she would be there.  But alas, it was Raj Sherman, newly elected Alberta Liberal leader.

Even though I voted for her, this blog, and I'm sure many others of the conservative-bent, will watch her every move over the next while.  She'd be smart to introduce some conservative policies to keep that camp involved in her party, especially on dumbing-down or scrapping the Alberta Human Rights Commission, but her promise to restore $100 million to education for teachers within a couple weeks seems bold and decisive, but in reality, it seems like a bit of a stretch to accomplish.  If she does it, you'll note it is without any budgetary debate, which indicates to me, not much will really change with the way the PCs govern.

I remember just a week and a half ago when I saw her at an Edmonton downtown lounge sitting and having a conversation with a man, possibly an advisor.  I thought to go up to her and wish her luck, but I didn't, because who knew at that point she'd ever become our premier.

But she did.

(Photo courtesy of The Toronto Star)

Doug Griffiths now at the teet

Last place candidate Doug Griffiths, who last week questioned the integrity of the Mar campaign buying memberships and selling them at advanced polls, is now right at his teet.

Yep, sounds like all these folks are lining up for cabinet posts and plum jobs.

I now won't be voting on Oct. 1 on the final ballot.  There's no one to vote for in this lame party and it's obvious who'll win.  Or I might go and write Danielle Smith on the ballot.  It's not illegal to destroy or defame a party ballot as far as I know.

Anyone know if anything's happening to anyone who released the list to the media and to Environics polling?  My guess is nothing will happen.  And with that, I will also be requesting the PC party take my name off their lists and I will be ripping up my membership, maybe right after I put the ballot in the box.

So long Regressive Wrongservative party.

Premier Mar and health care

The Twitterverse is reporting that in a few minutes (4:30pm MDT) Ted Morton and Rick Orman will be throwing their support behind Gary Mar, essentially swallowing up the "Conservative" part of the PC party.  This will be enough to crown Mar as premier.

Gary Mar has been touting private health care delivery solutions and I do commend him for saying that.  It's nothing new though.  But I just don't see any big "change" with this party.

If I was Gary Mar, I'd catch the other parties off-guard and call an election for November.  The Wildrose has no money, the Liberals have a brand new leader and no money, the NDP never have money but have finally figured out how to concentrate their efforts in a few ridings, and the Alberta Party, while it has a leader, can you remember his name, because I forgot, and the party itself hasn't really resonated to a wider audience. 

Mar will win with over 60 seats, the Wildrose will be opposition with a dozen seats, and the Liberals will remain or drop a seat or two as it splits votes with the Alberta Party and NDP.  The NDP might be able to ride the Jack Layton wave and gain another seat or two, but with former leader Ray Martin going against Sue Huff, former interim-leader of the Alberta Party, it'll be the race to watch how the progressives split votes.

This election will be all about health care.  With Mar touting private delivery, Danielle Smith calling for a more European approach with a competitive hybrid, Raj Sherman calling for management reform, the NDP calling for more money, and the Alberta Party, although their "common sense" should dictate that private delivery is needed, they'll want to keep it totally public.

It will be an interesting and lively debate.  All the leaders are well spoken.  But with Mar's private health care, I think it's possible that a chunk of "progressives" in the PCs jump ship to the Alberta Party.  And if the Alberta Party was smart, they'd take advantage of that.

Alberta PC leadership - 1st round

Saturday I sat at home debating whether to vote in this leadership race although I do not support the PC Party.  I ran some errands to fill in the day and drove by the Oliver Community League where the polling station was.  I parked and walked to the door and then had a strong feeling that I should turn around.  Then I said to myself, "You get to pick who you think would make the best premier."  So I entered and was quickly greeted by a volunteer.  I didn't have a $5 membership so I bought one in mostly quarters--coinage I'd never use and so I wouldn't waste a perfectly good $5 bill.

At that moment though I thought, "What are you doing? You can't stand this party and yet you have a membership now?"  Then the volunteer interrupted the thought and told me to take my membership and voting card to the desk and then to get a ballot.

I knew going in who'd I vote for.  Rick Orman--essentially the closest candidate to being an outsider in this race and a self-professed libertarian.  Unfortunately, his campaign never took hold

Why not Morton this time like last time for me?  I think most of us libertarian-conservative type folks had the same feeling about him.  As provincial treasurer, he saw the largest deficits in Alberta history.  To me, this simply shows a lack of leadership, and just following the party line.  Morton's biggest blunder was becoming treasurer in the first place instead of staying on the outside perhaps as it highlighted his "unconservativeness".  When a conservative stops being conservative, they lose support fast.  And in Ted's case, that's exactly what happened.

For Doug Griffiths, the relatively young MLA was smart to enter this race to keep his profile up.

So now onto the top three, if it's really even that; it's more like top one with scraps now.

With Mr. Integrity Gary Mar at 41%, sweeping Edmonton, will the remaining Redford and Horner campaigns abandon him as their second choice?  Will Horner garner the swift support of new Edmonton voters and Northern Alberta like Ed Stelmach did?  Ed had 15% and won so it's not out of the question but that was because Jim Dinning and Ted Morton were polarized enough and both from Southern Alberta to invigorate Edmonton and Northern folks to buy a membership and mark an "X" for Steady Eddie.

While most true conservatives and libertarians have already abandoned the PCs, where will those remaining park their support on the run off vote October 1st?  My bet is on Alison Redford or no one.

So now if there ever was a clear choice for libertarian-conservatives, it's certainly with Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party.  That is, if the party gets better organized and more media attention.  As I said to the National Post last month, it's not ready for prime-time governing, but a successful stint as official opposition, and being able to raise some real cash, the possibility of governing in say 2015 is not out of the question, if not as a serious challenge to the PCs.

Forty years with the same party in power is not healthy for any democracy.  I urge Albertans to vote for anyone but the PCs in the upcoming election.  Even if you're a soft PC supporter, you'll be doing the province a favour.

In the meantime, I'll be debating whether I'll be voting in the final run-off vote on October 1st. 

"Gary Mar unrepentant on improper membership sales"

And super blogger Alberta Ardvark is relentless on following this story... 

PCAA leadership candidate Gary Mar said his campaign volunteers did nothing wrong by selling party memberships within 50 metres of an Edmonton polling station. Adding that his supporters were only trying to help people who can't speak English. "Within the polling station, the advance polling station, you could buy a membership from the party," Mar said. "Except that there's no one at the party table that speaks three different dialects of Chinese."

Update: A scrutineer from the advanced vote says that she "spoke with at least 3 volunteers who were acting as interpreters and always available."

This is how Gary Mar runs his campaign.  If he were premier, this is one example of how he'd run our province.  Integrity.

And another thing...  If I were on another campaign, I'd have the party double check the resident addresses of the members signed-up from other campaigns, or maybe just a specific one.  Call it a hunch.  I've seen it happen on other nomination races and it disgusts me.  Luckily the candidate who was doing it didn't win.

Rick Orman questions latest poll

Alberta PC leadership contender Rick Orman has challenged the validity of the latest poll released by Environics which put Gary Mar on top with 31%.

And he has every right to considering the unusual circumstances.

Not only that, but PC Party president, Bill Smith (no, not that Bill Smith) has also published a scathing rebuke of the release of this poll saying that it is a breach of the party rules.  Read blogger David Climenhaga's article for more info.  Here is the text from the PC Party website:

Statement on unauthorized use of membership list
The Progressive Conservative Association is very concerned with respect to the recent use of what appears to be a private Party membership list by a public research company. Any unauthorised and inappropriate use of our Association’s private membership lists  is absolutely unacceptable. The privacy of our members is of paramount importance to myself and our organisation.

We have been able confirm that the list did not come from the Party. What we have determined is that a list was given to a media outlet who subsequently gave it to a polling firm. We are surprised that any public research firm would use a list that was obtained in such a manner. Furthermore the list in question is not at all an accurate reflection of the membership that will be participating  in our leadership process.

We will be contacting all leadership campaigns regarding this issue . It should be noted that all Leadership Candidates signed a confidentiality agreement not to disclose or disseminate the membership list prior to receiving it.

The conduct in question does not reflect our Party’s values, our commitment to our membership, or the ideals expressed by all campaigns throughout this Leadership process.

Bill Smith
President PC Alberta

Why was a private list given to the media?  A list, by the way, that has my name on it from the previous leadership campaign where I bought a membership to vote.  I wonder if any lawsuits will result.

But I think we all know what really happened here.  Same with campaigns selling memberships at advanced polls.  So what happens now?  Will the guilty campaign's candidate have to resign?  Or will they put the blame on "overzealous supporters".

Again, if the party cannot even hold an above-the-board leadership vote, is this a reflection of how they govern the province by stretching and breaking rules?

Of course it is.

Where's the integrity?

There isn't any.

If this isn't enough to show you that it's time to punt these corrupt bastards out of office, then I think you should start to question your own political ethics and decide what's best for our provincial democracy.

"Another bad day for Team Gary Mar"

Here's another Alberta Ardvark article on the questionable tactics of the Gary Mar campaign.  This is typical old-school politics crap... ship them in by bus and sell memberships at the polling station door by a campaign, not by the party.  And then put the blame on someone else by using the old "overzealous supporters" line.  Yeah, whatever.  I call that lack of leadership in ethics.

Doug Griffiths, another candidate is right in saying "If you can't run the campaign with integrity, then how can you promise integrity after?"

So I think I might vote in this race now.  But not for Gary Mar, that's for sure.   And I don't think anything will change in this province with him at the helm either.

Gary Mar campaign buying PC memberships

Blogger Alberta Ardvark has delved into the story that the Gary Mar campaign has been buying PC Party of Alberta memberships for supporters.  And unbelievably, it is not against the party rules.

The Ardvark is right in saying these are "antiquated rules for an antiquated party".

I've also checked various campaign websites to see if you can still buy a membership at the polling place just before you vote (as in the last leadership votes) and they all say you need to show your membership card.  So are they selling them there or not?   I don't know.

I have received numerous emails from each of the campaigns.  The only phone call I got was from Gary Mar's team while I was at the Eskimo game.  Friends of mine on some of the teams have not contacted me to try and win me over.

So with that, it's looking more and more likely that I won't be voting in this race.

Alberta PC leadership race - Southpark version

It's been a while since I've done this, but here we go!

Doug Griffiths

 Rick Orman

 Doug Horner

 Alison Redford

 

Gary Mar  

 Ted Morton

  

 Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, hoping Albertans choose none of the above

Premier Ed Stelmach on his way out...

Alberta poll: PCs 54%, WR 16%...

Zoiks!

PCs at 54%
Wildrose at 16%
Liberals at 13.5%
NDP at 13.5%
Alberta Party at 2%
Undecided at 19%

It is summer and these numbers don't mean much, but the media and bloggers are dumping on Danielle Smith and the Wildrose for "plummeting".  That's what happens when you peak way too soon.

When Danielle went through a honeymoon period, the Wildrose was tops.  Mind you, Ed Stelmach was still intending to be leader and premier.  Since he's stepping down, the numbers have changed.  And now the PCs are currently in a leadership race, drawing support and attention.  I've always felt that the best the Wildrose can do in next year's election is official opposition somewhere at 10-18 seats.  But even now that seems difficult.  The problem is that the party touted itself as grassroots but had a top down management style as well, which ticked off a lot of riding associations and soft supporters.

"Hey, but the Liberals are in a leadership race too, why aren't their numbers up like the PCs?"  Because really, no one really cares about that race, other than maybe Raj Shermann.

The NDP haven't moved much.  And the Alberta Party?  Well, not much to say really.  Each will get 1-3 seats next time.

Anyway, when the PCs pick their leader, that's when a new poll will mean something, whether it's Gary Mar, Ted Morton, or Rick Orman vs. Danielle Smith, it'll really depend on how they're perceived ideologically.  For Danielle, the further left the PCs go with a leader, the better off she and the Wildrose are.