Election Post Mortem

I say, there's no better title to this blog post than "Post Mortem" due to the election's political death of leaders, cabinet ministers, and other high-profile MPs.

Lorne Gunter has some insight on the NDP "surge" and how it was the Tories who actually surged through splits.

I lament, however, at no longer having the bulk of my posts focus on Dr. Michael Ignatieff.  It was fun to challenge his intentions to become PM.  I look forward to the next victim, Justin Trudeau, who will surely woo young soft Dipper support in Quebec once Quebeckers see that their new crop of NDP MPs won't deliver on anything and will turn on them so fast to look for the next best thing.  However, older soft-sovereignists will surely halt any exodus reciting "Je me souviens" and how Justin's father helped ignite Quebec nationalism.

And speaking of Quebec nationalism, Mr. Duceppe, it's been a slice, but your party, like your province, no longer has any real relevancy or power in Parliament.  Conservatives have shown that a majority is possible without Quebec and this will continue in elections to come as more seats are added to BC, Alberta, and Ontario.  Now especially with a few Quebec Conservative cabinet ministers getting turfed, Quebec continues to choose to be on the outside of government and the national stage.  So be it.

"Jack and Gilles went up the Hill to fetch a pail of water
Jack fell down, sprained his hip, recovered, and Gilles tumbled all the way thereafter."

For American-born, dual-citizenship, Elizabeth May, she and her party survive another day, despite losing 380,000 votes from 2008, that's a almost $800,000 the Greens WON'T receive in vote subsidies, but now, they won't have to pay her a salary.  I may spend some time focusing on her and her policies in future posts.

Speaking of salaries... over 100 MPs lost or retired.  How many qualify for the gold-plated pension I'm not sure, but many long-time MPs, including Gilles Duceppe, will live very comfortably for the rest of their lives.

For Prime Minister Stephen Harper, it has been a very long time coming.  Over ten years actually to get here.  After his hiatus as a Reform MP and leading the National Citizens' Coalition for a few years, in 2000, seeing Stockwell Day's days numbered, he returned with one intention--to unite the right. 

This election, I maintain that Harper was the one who engineered the election, trapping Ignatieff into holding the gov't in contempt.

I maintain that Harper let Jack attack Ignatieff on his voting record in the English debate and let him go toe-to-toe with Duceppe in the French debate.  Harper knew he didn't need Quebec to win, which is why Harper didn't have to say much and actually sacrificed Quebec and some of his cabinet ministers to the NDP to win it all elsewhere.

With a loss, two minority wins, and now a majority, Harper has proven as a skilled tactician, there is only one winner in a game of chess, not only with opposition leaders, but from within as well.  He is and will remain for many years, the last man standing up high on the Hill, with the only pail of water.

Election notes - Day ??

I'm currently on an undisclosed tropical island enjoying a couple weeks off.  But that doesn't mean I haven't been keeping up-to-date on the election.

Here's what I know and what I think I know.

The NDP are gaining momentum which was triggered by Jack's performance in the debates.  I also think those on the left are comparing Iggy and Jack and liking Jack a lot more, especially in Quebec.  Iggy's "Rise Up" speech, I think, was a bit of a turn off for many, and many leftoids are confused as to what Iggy's intentions are with a potential coalition.  Not with Jack.  In Quebec, the NDP are ahead of both other federalist parties with the Bloc losing ground.

So who are these soft-separatists that are turning to the NDP?  They're coalitionists now!  By supporting the NDP and putting them above the Liberals, they've realized there is a potential for Jack Layton as PM in a coalition gov't with Gilles Duceppe in there somehow.  It's crazy, I know, but Jack's performance in the French debate was very good and convincing.

So now, this is where I'm going to speculate on some Conservative strategy.  Hear me out dear readers.  Consider...

- We all know, Stephen Harper's plan all along has been to replace the Liberals as the "natural governing party".

- With the Liberals moving to the right against the massive Conservative wall, the gap on the centre-left was left wide open.  Jack has successfully moved into it with some centrist policies like the small business tax cut and other family-friendly measures.  But it's more on personality than policy.  People simply like Jack a lot more than Iggy.

- So I think the Conservatives are helping Jack Layton.

- Did Stephen Harper willingly take a back seat in the French debate to let Jack do most of the talking?

- Is the recent Conservative attack ad on Jack Layton not really an attack ad at all but a way to draw attention to him so that lefties consider Jack as a potential leader of the opposition or the prime minister in a coalition gov't?   ... While at the same time, drawing away some soft NDP anti-coalitionists in BC and Ontario to the Conservatives themselves?

For this blogger, ideally, I would love to see the end or decimation of the Liberal party.  They were a terrible official opposition--Iggy's voting record notwithstanding.

While I disagree with them on many issues, I've always admired the NDP--they at least stand for something and would be a formidable official opposition to the Conservatives.  And I also think with a stronger NDP, it would quash the Liberals from wanting to merge, which is, of course, good for Stephen Harper.

Not only that, but having a Conservative majority is the best thing for our growing and prosperous country.  With lower corporate taxes, we are already seeing more investment and growth in the economy, which has had the positive effect of actually bringing in more revenue for the government, which is why the deficit is shrinking faster than expected.  I don't understand how many people don't get that concept.

And for national unity.  In a majority, we all know Harper will bring in legislation to eliminate the taxpayer-funding for political parties.  The Bloc relies on over 85% of their revenue from this funding.  Removing that, would hurt them big time.

So everything appears to be working in favour of Stephen Harper in his quiet campaign.  Like in 2004, after Canadian families got together for Christmas dinner and talked politics, the Conservatives surged.  The key polls will be after the Easter dinners where I think lefty Canadians at the table will see that the Liberals have no hope in defeating Harper, but they do see a potential for Jack Layton as official opposition leader or the leader and PM of a coalition government.

For an election about nothing, it seems to be an election about what those traditionally strategic-voting leftwing Canadians are thinking... that they're finally going to vote the party and leader they've always wanted to vote for.  And they're feeling pretty damn good about it.

Ok, now back to the beach and warm sunshine...

Debates and outcome scenarios - followup

English Debate...


Summary:  Harper calm & solid. Iggy stumbles. Layton feisty and passionate. Duceppe not as good as before.


I enjoyed this debate.  I thought each leader respected each other's time.  The first half they attacked Harper and it seemed it was on Iggy in the second half.  They started off with the leaked AG G8 info but it didn't last. I don't think this story is going to stick next week.


Jack wasn't interrupting as much as before and kept on the attacks while highlighting NDP policies.  He did really well.


Ignatieff seemed a bit uncomfortable when speaking and trying to bring together different anecdotes into some nonsensical train of thought and argument and reminded me more and more of a professor at Harvard for some reason .. or just a boring political science professor.


Duceppe was Duceppe.  Like a rambling neighbour but his quote on "I will never be prime minister of Canada, I can assure you that!" got some laughs.  People like Duceppe because he's straightforward and he didn't disappoint.


All that said, Iggy didn't deliver the knock out punch on Harper to make Harper trip, but Layton sure did... on Iggy that is.


Overall, I don't think this debate will change much other than halt the 2-4 point Liberal gain.  Harper made continual compelling and calm arguments why the Conservatives should be reelected with a majority.


At times, it seemed Harper's calmness seemed to frustrate Ignatieff, and for that, overall Harper beat Ignateiff, but I thought Jack won the debate overall.  He was enjoyable to watch.

Coalitions: comparing 2004 and 2008 again

A continual counterpoint being made by Liberals, NDP, and BQ supporters is that Harper is a hypocrite for denouncing the formal Liberal-NDP-BQ coalition when he tried to do it himself back in 2004.

Well he didn't.  He's not a hypocrite.

It bugs me that I feel compelled to have to regurgitate a post I made in May of 2010.

In 2004, there was no coalition.  Period.  All Harper, Layton, and Duceppe did was make the Governor General aware that she should consult the opposition parties before making a decision.

Here's a video to show you what Harper, Layton, and Duceppe said back in 2004.  It's VERY CLEAR.  No coalition.  Whereas early in this 2011 campaign, Mr. Ignatieff has not been clear on his intentions AND Layton and Duceppe have been calling Mr. Harper a liar regarding his intentions, when it is THEY who have been misleading.



And once again, here's the Stephen Harper 2004 letter (Bold emphasis mine):

September 9, 2004




Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

Excellency,

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.

We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.

Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

(Also signed by Duceppe and Layton)

Note that while the letter reminds the GG that the three opposition parties constitute a majority in the House, nowhere does Stephen Harper suggest that the three opposition parties wish to form a government.  NOWHERE.  Yet Libs and Dips continue to use this as a gotcha tactic.  Well sorry. 
 
Now let's contrast that with Stephane Dion's infamous 2008 coalition letter...
 

December 1, 2008
 
 
 
 
Her Excellency the Right Honourable Michaelle Jean,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A OA1


Excellency,

As Leader of the Official Opposition, I wish to inform you that, as of this writing, the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House of Commons, have been in close consultation concerning the failure of the Conservative government to address the impact of the global economic crisis on Canadians.

As a result, I wish to inform you that my party and the other two opposition parties have lost confidence in this Conservative government.  The Liberal Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party of Canada are resolved to form a new government and to this end we have the support of the Bloc Quebecois for a period of 18 months. This new government will effectively, prudently, promptly and competently address the best interests of the people of Canada in these critical economic times.

In light of the significant economic challenges facing our citizens, and that the last federal election was held less than two months ago, we respectfully request that, should a call for dissolution arise, you consider exercising your constitutional authority to call on the Leader of the Official Opposition to form a new collaborative government with the New Democratic Party of Canada and supported by the Bloc Quebecois.

This new government should be allowed to demonstrate it has the confidence of the House of Commons.

Your attention to this matter is greatly appreciated.

Sincerely,
Hon. Stephane Dion, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Official Opposition
Leader, the Liberal Party of Canada

Note the difference?

2004:  "to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority."

2008:  "you consider exercising your constitutional authority to call on the Leader of the Official Opposition to form a new collaborative government with the New Democratic Party of Canada and supported by the Bloc Quebecois.... This new government should be allowed to demonstrate it has the confidence of the House of Commons."


Not only that but Dion, Layton, and Duceppe were shown in public meeting together, published a letter to the public the same day as well as put out cooperative and policy accords.  See below...

Monday, December 1, 2008




To our fellow citizens,

Canada is facing a global economic crisis. Since the recent federal election, it has become clear that the government headed by Stephen Harper has no plan, no competence and, no will to effectively address this crisis. Therefore, the majority of Parliament has lost confidence in Mr. Harper's government, and believes that the formation of a new Government that will effectively, prudently, promptly and competently address these critical economic times is necessary.

The contrast between the inaction of Mr. Harper's government and the common action taken by all other Western democracies is striking. We cannot accept this.

A majority of Canadians and Quebecers voted for our parties on October 14, 2008. Our Members of Parliament make up 55 percent of the House of Commons.

In light of the critical situation facing our citizens, and the Harper government's unwillingness and inability to address the crisis, we are resolved to support a new government that will address the interests of the people.

Today we respectfully inform the Governor General that, as soon as the appropriate opportunity arises, she should call on the Leader of the Official Opposition to form a new government, supported as set out in the accompanying accords by all three of our parties.

Respectfully,


Hon. Stéphane Dion
Leader, the Liberal Party of Canada

Hon. Jack Layton
Leader, the New Democratic Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe
Leader, the Bloc Québécois

For anyone to say that Stephen Harper tried to form a coalition government with the NDP and Bloc in 2004 is dead wrong.

Oh, and did I mention that this agreement between the Liberals and NDP is still in effect until June 2011?

And only 17% believe Ignatieff when he says he won't form a coalition.

Budget 2011 - Texas Hold 'Em

Budget 2011 is turning out to be a classic game of Texas Hold 'Em Poker.


Two cards are dealt to every player.
The Flop is like the first reading of the budget.

Harper's got pocket queens and bets over $200 billion.
Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe doesn't like cards with royalty on it, but he calls anyway.
Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff hasn't even looked at his cards, but he knows it can't be that good, but he still calls.
NDP leader Jack Layton calls Harper's hand, saying "there's always hope for amendments".

The Turn?

Harper sees a high card turn from the public, realizes he's still got a good hand and doesn't budge, maybe offering a GST cut on home heating to Layton, so he doesn't bet it as high as he thought.
Duceppe's got a good hand as always, he calls.
Ignatieff still doesn't look at his cards, except Harvard to run back to, so he calls
Layton calls but raises the bet.
Harper calls Layton.

The River?
It's a queen.
Duceppe's got a pair.Ignatieff's got a pair.
Layton's got a pair.
Harper wins with three queens and we go to an election.

Next round?   The election itself.

Coalition talk: Contrast the context in opposition requests to the GG

Ah, Liberals and Dippers are now using a letter written in 2004 by then opposition leader Stephen Harper 2004 letter to then Governor General, Adrienne Clarkson regarding the current minority government situation. 

From Jane Taber at the Globe and Mail:

But the Liberals fired back this morning, noting that when he was opposition leader Mr. Harper signed a letter to the Governor-General “stating that he was willing to work with the NDP and the Bloc to form the government.”

“Yes, that was a coalition between three parties, including the Bloc,” a senior Ignatieff official says. “And the Conservatives were in the thick of it. So please, stop pointing to that scarecrow!”

Scarecrow?  Um, really?  Maybe click your heels three times and come back to reality.  Contrast the context in the request in Stephen Harper's 2004 letter to the one in December 2008 written by then opposition leader Stephane Dion (pdf).

Stephen Harper 2004 letter (Bold emphasis mine):

September 9, 2004




Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

Excellency,

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.

We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.

Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada
Also signed by Duceppe and Layton

 
Note that while the letter reminds the GG that the three opposition parties constitute a majority in the House, nowhere does Stephen Harper suggest that the three opposition parties wish to form a government.  NOWHERE.  Yet Libs and Dips continue to use this as a gotcha tactic.  Well sorry. 
 
Now let's contrast that with Stephane Dion's infamous 2008 coalition letter...
 

December 1, 2008
 
 
 
 
Her Excellency the Right Honourable Michaelle Jean,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A OA1


Excellency,

As Leader of the Official Opposition, I wish to inform you that, as of this writing, the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House of Commons, have been in close consultation concerning the failure of the Conservative government to address the impact of the global economic crisis on Canadians.

As a result, I wish to inform you that my party and the other two opposition parties have lost confidence in this Conservative government.  The Liberal Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party of Canada are resolved to form a new government and to this end we have the support of the Bloc Quebecois for a period of 18 months. This new government will effectively, prudently, promptly and competently address the best interests of the people of Canada in these critical economic times.

In light of the significant economic challenges facing our citizens, and that the last federal election was held less than two months ago, we respectfully request that, should a call for dissolution arise, you consider exercising your constitutional authority to call on the Leader of the Official Opposition to form a new collaborative government with the New Democratic Party of Canada and supported by the Bloc Quebecois.

This new government should be allowed to demonstrate it has the confidence of the House of Commons.

Your attention to this matter is greatly appreciated.

Sincerely,
Hon. Stephane Dion, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Official Opposition
Leader, the Liberal Party of Canada

Note the difference?

Not only that but Dion, Layton, and Duceppe were shown in public meeting together, published a letter to the public the same day as well as put out cooperative and policy accords.

Monday, December 1, 2008




To our fellow citizens,

Canada is facing a global economic crisis. Since the recent federal election, it has become clear that the government headed by Stephen Harper has no plan, no competence and, no will to effectively address this crisis. Therefore, the majority of Parliament has lost confidence in Mr. Harper's government, and believes that the formation of a new Government that will effectively, prudently, promptly and competently address these critical economic times is necessary.

The contrast between the inaction of Mr. Harper's government and the common action taken by all other Western democracies is striking. We cannot accept this.

A majority of Canadians and Quebecers voted for our parties on October 14, 2008. Our Members of Parliament make up 55 percent of the House of Commons.

In light of the critical situation facing our citizens, and the Harper government's unwillingness and inability to address the crisis, we are resolved to support a new government that will address the interests of the people.

Today we respectfully inform the Governor General that, as soon as the appropriate opportunity arises, she should call on the Leader of the Official Opposition to form a new government, supported as set out in the accompanying accords by all three of our parties.

Respectfully,


Hon. Stéphane Dion
Leader, the Liberal Party of Canada

Hon. Jack Layton
Leader, the New Democratic Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe
Leader, the Bloc Québécois

For anyone to say that Stephen Harper tried to form a coalition government with the NDP and Bloc in 2004 is dead wrong.

So now, the Lib-NDP coalition talk continues, with supposed high-level talks between former Liberal PM, Jean Chretien and former NDP leader, Ed Broadbent.  The Conservatives have already released a statement warning of the risk of a coalition, again.

“A Liberal-NDP-Bloc Quebecois Coalition would be led by a man who left Canada for 34 years and professed his love for America,” the talking points say. “It would put our economic recovery in the hands of former NDP Premier Bob Rae and current NDP leader Jack Layton. And it would contain a policy veto for the Bloc Quebecois – a party that doesn’t even believe in a united Canada.”

All this aside, I wonder if the resurrection of the coalition wouldn't be happening if current Liberal leader, Michael Ignatieff's polling numbers weren't so low.

As I always do, look at this from another point of view...  a certain someone and Jean Chretien were on PowerCorp.  Chretien likes Dion and brought him into cabinet.  In first leadership race after Martin steps down, a certain someone drops out and supports Dion on last ballot, not Iggy. 

Do you think the NDP grassroots would ever want to be in a coalition with Ignatieff?  I don't think so.  But perhaps a certain someone. Someone who was a former provincial NDPer himself.

The Separatist Who Cried Shit Wolf

Ah Gilles!  Trying to build some momentum are we?  I see that you are using 2010 to drum up the old license plate adage "Je me souviens" so Quebeckers remember the round number anniversaries of the Levesque referendum (1980) where you "Oui"s lost, the failed Meech Lake Accord (1990) which sparked your little party, and the Bouchard referendum (1995) where you guys lost again!

Thus continued the whole "unity" debate, resulting in billions more federal transfer dollars pouring into Quebec, symbolically highlighted by kick ass Canada Day fireworks displays in Montreal.

And where does that get us?

Well according to you, nowhere really.  So to get the ball rolling (again), you go on a cross-Canada tour, which from what I recall, barely anyone noticed or even attended your little gatherings to see what Canadians thought of you guys.

But you know what?  We remember stuff too!  Remember when you said that it's "undemocratic" for the Conservative government wanting to remove the $1.75/vote taxpayer subsidy for political parties, where your party gets over 80% of its revenue from? Yet now you cry like a selfish child when its proposed that Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia should get more seats to have a proper and fair representation by population in the House of Commons--you know, to achieve a better democracy that you claim to embrace!

Now, you release a poll from a pro-"sovereignty" company to show that Canadians outside Quebec don't want to open the constitution where Quebeckers overwhelmingly do. 

How convenient is that?

"Canadians have moved on to other things," he said. "They build their country as they see fit, that's all. They're no longer open to satisfying the ambitions of Quebecers. Federalism is a dead end for Quebec."

HAHA!  Ah, Gilles. You make me laugh so hard it hurts like my arteries do when chowing down a huge plate of hot poutine.  As you may or may not be aware, Mr. Duceppe, building Canada has largely included propping up Quebec, expanding bilingualism so far that even on WestJet flights you can start to make out the French recording translation telling you that "Il s'agit d'un vol non-fumeur".

Canadians have moved on indeed!  Why?  Because before, when you Quebec separatists whined and complained about EVERYTHING, we still came running to you with chocolate, flowers, calling you a "nation" with Craven "A" cigarettes, and begging you to reconsider, listening to your every word.

But now Gilles, this so-called momentum you're trying to move to reinvigorate animosity is falling on deaf ears.  This time, Gilles, no one's listening, because no one cares. Not even the great Bouchard gives a puck anymore.

All you and your Canadian taxpayer federally funded party are doing now is crying shit wolf.  Shit wolf, Gilles.  Shit wolf.

Bloc Heads

And right out of the gate is Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe saying the bill to add seats to Ontario, BC, and Alberta is against Quebec. Give me a break already.

The Bloc immediately pounced on the bill and said it was an attempt to kneecap their province's political clout.

"After recognizing the Quebec nation, the government is now invoking representation by population in order to reduce the political weight of Quebec," said Bloc MP Claude Debellefeuille in the House on Thursday.

Quebec currently has 24 per cent of the total seats in the House. Under the new guidelines, that representation would drop to 22 per cent.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe is currently preparing a cross-country tour in which he will build a case for Quebec's sovereignty. It's expected he could use the new House numbers to bolster his argument that Quebec is under attack.

However, CTV's Chief Political Correspondent Craig Oliver said the new seats simply reflect demographic shifts.

"Overall I think it's a pretty fair re-distribution," he said Thursday.

Politically speaking, Oliver said it's clear why Quebec would be upset, but he noted the province's population hasn't increased, while other parts of the country have experienced strong growth.

I know, I had to read it again several times myself:  "the government is now invoking representation by population in order to reduce the political weight of Quebec."

Oh my stars! Proper representation by population? In Canada? Oh no, we can't have other parts of the country experience economic and population growth having more political weight than mighty Quebec can we?

Now do people see why a lot of Canadians are just getting sick and tired of these yahoo separatists? And many could give two shits if they left the country.  This is why we also must scrap the $1.75/vote taxpayer funding for political parties (which is going to come back from what I hear).

See what I meant in my previous post that adding these new seats will dramatically change the country?

Looks like it already has.

Cirque Du Ceppe Ratist

Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe (or Du Ceppe Ratist as I like to call him now), made some remarks comparing the French resistence movement to Quebec sovereignists.

"For the moment, we are resisters. But yesterday's resisters will be tomorrow's winners. Long live a sovereign Quebec!" he told supporters, who were gathered for a weekend meeting marking the party's 20 years of existence.

Don't you just love that Canadian taxpayers are footing the bill for the salaries, pensions, and now CAMPAIGNS for the members in this joke of a party?

Even the great Lucien Bouchard admitted that the Parti Quebecois separatists have become too radical. This should probably apply to the party he founded as well, don't you think, after Duceppe makes statements like this?

Oh, in other news... anyone seen Iggy?  After whining about Prime Minister Harper proroguing parliament, when that same parliament resumed, the Liberals decide to prorogue themselves, and it wasn't long after 37% of Liberal MPs didn't show up to vote on the budget, and Michael Ignatieff trotted off to do a cross-country tax and spend tour.

Again, aren't taxpayers paying for the leader of the opposition to be in the House of Commons, and you know, opposing?

If not, then we'll assume that he agrees with the direction of this Conservative government.

UPDATE:  Wow. In reading the comments about the article on the Duceppe slip at CTV.ca and CBC.ca, I'd guess that over 98% of them don't support the Bloc, with many thinking it shouldn't even be a federal party.  And most folks simply want Quebec separatists to leave because it seems everyone is just sick and tired of Quebec continually taking the majority of the provincial transfers, even allowing them to sit in the House of Commons, having former members collect pensions, allow funding for their campaigns, and yet the separatists still complain.  It feels like there's quite the silent majority out there.  Even for CBC.ca readers, I was surprised at the disdain for Quebec separatists.

Harper leads...

Nanos research did a leadership poll recently and found that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is far ahead of Michael Ignatieff on trustworthiness, competency, and vision.

Canadians like it when a leader leads and takes a stand. That's why they loved Trudeau, Mulroney, Chretien, and now are really warming up to Harper. But note the undecided. There's room, but I'd say most of those are people who don't even vote (for shame!).

Regardless, Canadians trust Stephen Harper more than twice as much as Michael "Just Visiting" Ignatieff.

The most trustworthy leader

National (n=1,002)

• Stephen Harper: 31%
• Michael Ignatieff: 14%
• Jack Layton: 14%
• Gilles Duceppe: 8%
• Elizabeth May: 8%
• None of them/Undecided: 25%

The most competent leader

National (n=1,002)

• Stephen Harper: 36%
• Michael Ignatieff: 20%
• Jack Layton: 11%
• Gilles Duceppe: 7%
• Elizabeth May: 2%
• None of them/Undecided: 24%

The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future

National (n=1,002)

• Stephen Harper: 32%
• Michael Ignatieff: 20%
• Jack Layton: 15%
• Gilles Duceppe: 4%
• Elizabeth May: 4%
• None of them/Undecided: 25%

Leadership Index Score

• Stephen Harper: 99
• Michael Ignatieff: 54
• Jack Layton: 40
• Gilles Duceppe: 19
• Elizabeth May: 14

Hey Gilles, quit whining!

Blogging from New York and I read this...

Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe has called for the federal gov't to deliver services in Quebec only en francais and called Prime Minister Harper AND Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff "rednecks".

I love the response from Soudas:

"There are certain days in the year when Mr. Duceppe should put aside his whining, his complaining, his constantly seeing the glass as half-empty," Harper spokesman Dimitri Soudas said Wednesday.

"Quebecers see the glass as being half full. Mr. Duceppe just comes across as a big whiner."

I was recently at the Montreal-Trudeau airport and the FIRST language EVERYONE spoke to me in was French.

So yeah, quit yer whinin' Gilles and let us rednecks tawk the English in Quebec will ya?

Lump of Coalition

Don't you find it interesting how quickly the Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition was put together and then how quickly it was torn apart?

Yet when it was alive, Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe said, just last week, that it was "stronger than ever".

When the federal budget was released, NDP leader Jack Layton said a coalition gov't would better address the needs of Canadians.

Really, Jack? Or should we call you Jack Shit from now on?

Hmmm... how quickly you released radio ads attacking your former ally, Liberal interim leader Michael Ignatieff, you know, the one who would have given you a cabinet post. Must have had those ads ready for proofing around the same time you said a coalition gov't would work better together.

And Jack says at every turn that Prime Minister Stephen Harper can't be trusted?

Riiight.

Put a lump of coal into the coalition kettle and let's call it black, shall we?

"The Coalition is dead." Long live the coaltion!

“The coalition is dead. It's finished. It's over,” said [Bloc Quebecois leader] Mr. Duceppe.

Just last week, Duceppe said, "The coalition is stronger than ever." What happened?

Now that the Liberals are "reluctantly" supporting the budget (as predicted), NDP Leader Jack Layton now says he can't trust Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. (Does Layton trust anybody anymore? Sour grapes?)

Ok, so what does this mean now?

It means the Conservatives will be in power all year long, propped up by the Liberals, as Ignatieff wants regular budgetary updates from Harper.

It's too bad. I wished Harper and Flaherty would have soured the budget enough so that the Liberals couldn't support it and possibly force an election in which the Conservatives would have a better chance at winning a majority against the notion of a separatist-Coalition.

And that's why the Liberals dumped Dion so quickly and put in Ignatieff. Although they all signed that coalition promise document for the Governor General (including Ignatieff), it really wasn't binding after the prorogue anyway.

I don't think though, that Ignatieff has said anything significant to win over soft-conservatives. In fact, I think this budget really strattles the middle, forcing to push the opposition Liberals to the left more because, well, they have to oppose something!

If there weren't any middle class tax cuts, it would just be like a Liberal budget ... or heck, a coalition budget. Earlier in the month though, Ignatieff was FOR a middle class tax cut, then hearing that it would be in the budget, scrapped that idea and said he was against it.

Harper's long time goal is to replace the Liberals as the natural governing party. Every political move he's made is indicative of that strategy.

Now the question is, does Stephen Harper want to REPLACE the Liberals, or BE like them?

Except for the middle class tax cut, this budget makes me think so.

So while the old Liberal/NDP/(Bloc) coalition is dead, a new one begins, but it's really the old old one when Dion was leader of the Liberals.

So now we simply wait until Michael Ignatieff rebuilds the Liberal party until he's comfortable fighting an election .... and we'll wait ... and wait...

Long live the coalition!

"Good shot [pro]Rogue II" or another Rebel Alliance?

The current situation in Parliament reminds me of the Star Wars series--how an elected official, Senator Palpatine, was elected chancellor of the Galactic Senate, while as Sith Lord, Darth Sidious, secretly creates a mass crisis and war between the clones and robot army, and in order to restore "peace", single-handedly creates the Galactic Empire with himself as Emporer. Then with one swift move, wipes out the Jedi, the protectors of democracy, and rules for over a decade.

Thing is, with Parliament, I can't tell who to compare Palpatine/Sidious to.

With the release of the NDP taped conference call and claims that leader Jack Layton had a deal with the Bloc well before the Tory gov't's economic update, could this make Jack the Sith Lord. Is it Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe in helping to prop up a coalition giving the balance of power to his separatist movement? Or is it Ed Broadbent and Jean Chretien putting the deal together between the NDP and Liberals in the back room? Is it Stephane Dion who would be leader of the coalition gov't and thus prime minister, although he was resoundly rejected by voters. Or is it Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has just prorogued parliament until the new year? Or is it Tory insiders, with new leadership websites for John Baird and Jim Prentice, secretly plotting a coup against Harper, so their future leadership hopefuls have a chance to move in and save the day?

See! Hard to tell, isn't it?

But what I do know is, whomever wins this recent situation in the end and stability returns, will be deemed "The New Hope", a.k.a. Luke Skywalker. That said, by properly applying The Force, the winner will also have to finally defeat his enemies, returning peace, order, and good government to Canada (a.k.a. winning a majority).

And this could apply to Liberal leadership contender, Michael Ignatieff, winning the race in May, raising the Liberal party out of the ashes, and defeating Harper in an election.

But it could also still apply to Stephen Harper, in his quest to destroy the Liberal party.

But as they often say in Star Wars, "I got a bad feeling about this."

Canadian Federalection 2008 - CPC War Room mishaps

Here are my thoughts on where the Conservative War Room and Stephen Harper disappointed me in this election (and I know many other Conservatives whom I've spoken with agree):

- The famous puffin poop dropping on Dion in a website animation. Who approved this? Absolutely immature and unnecessary.

- Announcement of new policy to treat 14 year old serious offenders as criminals, etc. Duceppe's argument that sending them to jail would be dangerous to them was right and this issue lost the CPC votes in Quebec. This announcement was not a major issue, wouldn't have shored up more support than they already had, and totally unnecessary to bring up during the election.

- Harper's comments on "rich galas" when quickly the media and Liberal war room brought up the fact that his wife, Laureen, was chairman of a gala committee nullified his statements. While his comments solidified core support, it along with the massive arts-cuts spin lost him tonnes of votes and seats in Quebec. (But then why these arts folks who want more funding voted Bloc who would get no funding if they separated have any credibility on this issue is beyond me.)

- When the Liberal war room and Bob Rae exposed the plagarism of a speech Harper gave that was exactly the same as then Australian Prime Minister Howard's regarding the War in Iraq, the fallout was the resignation of a guy in the CPC war room who stole the speech. It wasn't until a week later did the CPC war room expose a plagarised speech Dion gave regarding Kyoto. It got little legs in the media as compared to Harper's. Too little too late boys.

- Harper in the debates. In French, he didn't go after Duceppe as much as he could have on Duceppe not talking about "sovereignty". That issue doesn't play as well in Quebec anymore which is why the Bloc got so many votes--not that their soft supporters actually want to separate, but now they're no different than a western protest party. In English, he didn't go after Duceppe again on this issue. Which leads me to...

- Harper's leadership. He was trumpted as a "strong leader" at the beginning of the campaign, but when the U.S. economy tanked, and Canadians stocks tanked, that leadership didn't come through as much as Canadians were told to expect. He should have trumpted more and more how the Canadian banking system is #1 in the world, how our mortgage lending system is rock solid, how Canadians are smart people, and basically provide some sort of inspiration and hope, and how we differ from the U.S. on these aspects. Luckily the few days before the election, he got that support back, as voters had no where else to turn to.

- The spin on Stephane Dion's re-re-redo-interview on CTV. CTV and the media were already running with it, so why did the CPC war room and Harper have to mention anything about it again. That tactic backfired due to the Liberal Party (LPC) war room and Bob Rae spinning it back very well. This resonated in Quebec.

- And locally in Edmonton-Strathcona, on the Rahim Jaffer campaign, whoever thought of printing up and distributing flyers spouting NDP leader Jack Layton's quotes on marajiuana being "a wonderful substance" and contrasting it with Conservative policy criminalizing it when Rahim himself was quoted a couple years ago in favour of decriminalization, had poor political judgement and no understanding of the riding. This policy stance was irrelevant and a very poor choice for a wedge issue in a riding that is the most libertarian one in Alberta. This mishap was quoted in the Edmonton Journal editorial leading up to election day, and now knowing the NDP implied stance, people from all over the left side of the spectrum probably caused an exodus to the already well-run NDP Linda Duncan campaign. I'm not saying it was the main cause, but it was a cause.

- Finally... TV ads. Conservative TV ads spent most of the time attacking Dion's carbon tax. Some of them looked cheap, reminding me of old Progressive Conservative ads. While there were positive ads of Harper in his "sweather", there were no ads spouting the positive Conservative record and their current platform. The Liberals did it in 2000 and won handily.

That's all I gotta say... for now anyway. Anyone looking for a political strategist/spin doctor?

Canada Federalection 2008 - [insert colour] Shift

A lot has happened since my last post 6 days ago... the debates (including the Canadian ones..lol..), the U.S. bailout, and looming world economic recession.

Polls indicated that the Conservatives were teetering close to a majority if not there. The Liberals remain stagnant in the mid 20's, the NDP are edging close to that, and the Bloc has regained its earlier losses.

But with a week left, and a weak left (get it?), Harper is poised to continue on as prime minister.

So what's happened in a nutshell?

Gaffes
The old Harper, er..., John Howard speech from five years ago I think was spun well by the Liberals; the story had legs over a few days. The Conservative war room seem to be asleep in trying to point out heavily that Bob Rae and Dion have both plagiarized themselves. But all the parties have had candidates quit over some controversy. I don't think this has affected the national campaigns overall that much.

Debates
Duceppe won the French debate, Layton the English debate, while Dion improved and went beyond his very very low expectations, where Harper didn't wow anyone, and has remained calm, cool, and collected throughout it all... as a prime minister should do. Chretien did it in 1997.

Ads
The Liberals have gone to the old playbook in equating Harper with Bush. I think Canadians are really tired of this line and reeks of desperation from the Liberals. The Conservatives are coming out with another warm fuzzy one with a positive message, which will work and gain them a couple points.

Quebec
So let me get this straight... arts folks in Quebec are complaining about Harper's so-called cuts to arts and now putting their protest vote with the Bloc, a party that wants to separate from Canada and no longer receive ANYTHING from the federal government. Hmmm... yeah, makes a lot of sense to me. With 5000 people marching in Montreal today, you wonder why they're not working instead.

Economy
I don't think people are buying Dion's carbon tax approach and Harper needs to remind everyone of that, which he did in the debates. Today, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Harper both went on national TV to calm investors and mention the aspects of the Canadian economy that have controls on it and the foresight they had a year ago when they put in these measures such as requiring 5% down on a mortgage and eliminating 40 year amortizations. They need to continue to hammer this all week to ease people's worries.

Dion's plan to have meetings within the first 30 days will be too late and Jack's plans will also be too late, which is why the Conservatives need to explain that they already put in measures to protect the Canadian economy.

Summary
Most of all, if the Liberals get near the margin of error, then you can expect soft-NDP votes to go Liberal again. It's these folks who seem to determine how well the Liberals do by preventing some vote splitting. But luckily for the Conservatives, the NDP have put together an excellent campaign and Jack Layton's performance has been very good.

Noise Filtering
This week, we're going to see more campaign TV ads, spin, rhetoric, polls, and pundits than we've ever seen before. How Canadians filter the noise and soak up the one or two emotions they get will determine their vote.

I think people see a Conservative gov't as inevitable, and the only way Harper will get to the magical 155 seats is with a split left happening in 20 more ridings this time around. I think they've gained their lost seats in BC (+5), will still grab more in Ontario (+10) and double their seats in Quebec (+10) which puts them awfully close to a majority. If they hit 37.5%, they'll get the majority.

Therefore, I still stand behind my 157 seat prediction for the Conservatives with the Liberals around 75 and as a result, the Red Green Shift will have turned Blue.

Day 3 of the Federalection

Some thoughts on Day Three...

I'm looking forward to some policies, but now we have dominating the media...

- Dion calling Harper a liar on Harper stating that Dion would raise the GST (which he DID say) especially when Dion said he wouldn't go negative. Bad taste.

- Conservative website notaleader having comic with a bird defecating on Dion. Very bad taste. Harper agrees. Story will have one more day of traction. But here's a page where you can make your own Dion attack ad. It's kind of fun actually.

- Conservative attacks on Dion's Green Shift Carbon Tax plan really hitting home in BC where they already have a carbon tax. A few more days of this and Canadians will want to hear something else but they don't want to talk about the carbon tax because it sounds like a new tax. Harper saying any politician that claims a new tax would be revenue neutral is misleading the public. He's right.

- Liberal plane an old junket from 1979 is a big polluter. Dion says they contributed carbon offsets to a green technology company that's only built a windmill back in 2001. Story will die in 1-2 more days.

- Green Leader Elizabeth May not allowed in the televised debates. I think most people want her on but strategically, a smart move by Layton and Harper to not want her on. Issue won't die.

- It's day two and I'm already tired of Harper's "family man" campaigning. Looking forward to some campaign policy planks.

- Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe. BORING. He used to not be boring.

- Jack Layton still being exciting .. riding Obama's wave, not mentioning the Liberals, attacking Harper on policy

- Stephane Dion counteracting Conservative attacks on his leadership with online ads of him in the outdoors doing outdoorsy things. Good plan. Also admits that he has a hearing problem and is the reason why he has difficulty speaking English with a clear accent because "English has a 'music' to it that I find difficult to hear". Humbling.

But two policies announcement did come out today:

- Conservatives will lower the diesel tax by two cents. Not a real kitchen table policy. Translates with truckers but will trucking companies pass that savings on to consumers? Unlikely.

- Liberals will DOUBLE the child care tax credit from $1200 to $2400 per year per child. THERE YOU GO! Taking Conservative policy and making it better right at the kitchen table.

Winner today... Liberal Leader Stephane Dion. He's been taking punches and fighting back with good policy and a humble nature.

But is it simply too late to shake the weak leader image portrayed in Conservative attack ads? Time is running out.

My prediction still stands at a slight Conservative majority, due to Bloc and Liberal loses in Quebec, Ontario, and BC with NDP gains also causing vote splitting on the left.

The Conservatives under Harper with three parties on the left now remind me of the Liberals under Chretien with two parties on the right from 1993 - 2004.

Leader Kick-Off Speeches and Campaign Ads

Well after day one of the Canadian federal election here are my first impressions.

Stephane Dion (Liberal) -- Very poor speech. It's still difficult to understand what he's saying sometimes. Mentions their "exciting" platform, but doesn't specifically mention his Green Shift carbon tax plan. No ads that I've seen, not all candidates have been nominated, lack of money, and no campaign plane! Good start! (D-)

Jack Layton (NDP) -- Very good inspiring speech and very good campaign ad. He seems upbeat, optimistic, specific, and even acting like a consumer advocate which is new and refreshing. Jack doesn't mention the Liberals at all, just Harper and the Conservatives. With a backdrop of the Parliament where he spoke across the river in Gatineau, it was an excellent stint. His French is much better than Dion's English, that's for sure. Hints at Obama and "change" and "hope" and all that good stuff. Says he's shooting to be prime minister. I think this is excellent strategy... making it a choice between Conservative policy or NDP values. He then takes a balsy move and gets on the NDP airplane to Harper's riding in Calgary to give another excellent speech. His supporters seem very enthusiastic. The NDP have an opportunity to win more seats in Ontario and Quebec. In BC, the Conservatives are doing well again and will gain seats where the NDP may lose. Excellent campaign ad against Harper. If Jack continues on like this, he can solidify those soft-NDP supporters who are often weary of a Conservative majority and vote Liberal. If I was a lefty in Canada, I'd be voting NDP for sure. (B+)

Elizabeth May (Greens) -- Good speech. Very fiery but received little to no media coverage. But she's annoying to me. I think she's too lefty for what I thought the Greens were--libertarian, fiscal conservative, low tax, environmentalists. Now it just seems they're about the environment. I still don't think they're going to win any seats but will come close in many ridings. (B-)

Gilles Duceppe (Bloc) -- Boring. Says to prevent a Harper majority to vote Bloc. Duh. I like Gilles Duceppe, but I think Quebeckers are tired of him, as they're tired of the separatist thing. Conservatives are doing well there because of their open federalism policy which to me is holding the country together better than Trudeau/Chretien Liberal centralization. (C-)

Stephen Harper (Conservative) -- Relaxed, but a bit boring. He admitted that he's still learning "your language (French)" which came across as humbling in an odd way. He outlined the difference in choice on taking a risk or a "steady course". The Conservatives are simply going to coast through the election on Harper's leadership. I wonder if that's risky by also not highlighting the rest of the team. Paul Martin did the same and look where it got him. (C+)

Voter Turnout... I think this will be worse than last election and less than 60% will vote. People just don't seem to care as much.

But I think there's a lot of soft conservatives/former liberals out there who are pleased with Harper's leadership and are tired of these minority parliaments and get more done.

But I'll be honest, why I'd never vote NDP from an ideological stand-point, I'm inspired to follow Jack Layton and his style, speeches, and see how it resonates with voters and translates into votes. It's certainly on day one, the most exciting campaign. But why am I doing this? Because the better the NDP do, the worse the Liberals do, and the NDP are a much more effective opposition, which a good democracy needs, and I'm sure that's also why Stephen Harper is so relaxed and humble.

Minister Bernier and the biker chick

The Liberal and Bloc opposition are really reaching when they dig up the past life of a minister's ex-girlfriend. Pretty sad, actually.

Another sad thing is when Bloc leader, Gilles Duceppe, lambasts our Governor General for talking about francophones abroad in Canada to French President Sarkozy.

In other news, a friend of mine told me she's in love with Nova Scotia Conservative MP, Peter Mackay and the next time I see him, to mention that. Thing is, she's no conservative by any means. Mind you, neither was Belinda.

Interesting Parallel - Reaching Zen in Canadian Unity

The Dalai Lama renewed pleas for Tibet's autonomy after meeting with New
Zealand's prime minister at an Australian airport yesterday, the latest in a string of meetings with dignitaries that have drawn condemnation from China.

The exiled Tibetan spiritual leader's 11-day tour of Australia has created a furor in Beijing, which regards the 71-year-old Buddhist icon as a beacon for pro-independence sentiment in Tibet. The Dalai Lama has repeatedly said he seeks only autonomy for the region, which China rules by military force.

Read on...

"China should give Tibet meaningful autonomy, because we have different language, with that rich different culture and heritage and rich Tibetan Buddhist tradition," he said, echoing earlier comments. "Intentional or unintentional, some kind of cultural genocide is taking place."

For Canadians, that language sounds familiar doesn't it?

"Canada should give Quebec meaningful autonomy, because we have different
language, with that rich different culture and heritage and rich French-Quebecois tradition... Intentional or unintentional, some kind of cultural genocide is taking place."

From this, if you sympathize with Tibet over China, for the same reasons, perhaps you should sympathize with Quebec over Canada. Yeah, yeah, it's not like the English took over Quebec by brute force or anything (lol).

Of course there are differences between these situations, but the parallel is interesting in trying to understand where a Quebecois is coming from and why perhaps it is noble for Gilles Duceppe to push for sovereign independence and Mario Dumont preferring autonomy.

But I have to ask, are Quebeckers really that oppressed?

Or do they tire of simply being dependent on the rest of Canada economically, not necessarily be independent of Canada, but contribute to the greater good, and in exchange, grant them more autonomy?

Sounds like how some Albertans feel, where Europe is possibly headed, what Ireland and Scotland wanted and got, and what the United States of America has been since its formation.