Friday, June 17, 2022

UCP leadership race gets crowded

Anyone else?  Following a slight majority leadership vote and the subsequent Alberta Premier Jason Kenney "stepping down", initially, we thought there'd be maybe a few contenders.


Former Wildrose leaders Danielle Smith and Brian Jean and probably an existing cabinet minister seemed to be the front-runners.  


Travis Toews is that cabinet minister who will likely have the backing of a good chunk of the existing executive.  But so might...


Rebecca Schulz - MLA and now former children's minister who seems to toe the party line.


Then there is… who?


Rajan Sawhney - MLA and now former transportation minister and previously the social services minster who saw claw backs on AISH but now says they should be restored with provinces finances in better shape.  Nice try.


Leela Aheer -- I've heard of her name but not sure... looking up... oh yes, she's a backbench MLA and has openly criticized Kenney.  She seems to be more on the progressive side.


Todd Loewen -- I think he was booted out of the UCP caucus for, you guessed it, criticizing Kenney.  He seems to be on the right flank.


Bill Rock -- Haven't heard of his name before but now see that he's mayor of Amisk.


But now we have Michelle Rempel Garner who is seriously contemplating a switch. This is an odd move considering she’s been backing Jean Charest in the CPC leadership race. Does she not see if he wins she’d be elevated or does she see he won’t win over Pierre Polievre?  


The UCP has a $150,000 fee to enter.  Federally, it’s twice that I think.  


Of the MLAs, Toews has the most name recognition but campaigns matter.  As this is a ranked ballot, having similar candidates is beneficial to then rally subsequent round counts.


That's how Erin O'Toole won.  There were more votes to be found in subsequent rounds from the other candidates like Leslyn Lewis on the social conservative side.  But it eventually bit him in the ass as he tried to move the party to the middle.  Peter MacKay didn't have as many.  Where Jean Charest has an advantage here though is there are a couple other progressive-minded candidates where he can get other ranked choices from.


I personally don’t like these ranked ballots. Let’s go back to delegates and conventions! 


So converting the history to now, the ideological streams appear to line up on the choices.  While smaller campaigns aren’t obligated to be loyal to the bigger fish, and there’s no time for a run off vote, candidates need to widen their message a bit to envelope the other campaigns while creating a wedge between the other bigger fish.  


It’s a fine balance that’s a different style of campaigning than a usual election where you simply need a plurality of votes.  Here you need 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round voted all in the same process!  


How would I rank in a vote?   

I honestly have no idea.  I’m not a member anymore.  


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