Alberta leaders' TV debate is the PCs last hope

TV dominates politics because it is the prime-time news and political ads that stream into our homes which grab our attention.  Radio, newspaper, and even outdoor signs combined don't have the same total effect that a well-orchestrated TV ad message can have on a campaign.

The Internet, now with video ads, has had to a degree, a similar effect, but people are generally annoyed with Internet advertising and tend to look away.  We generally do not "go on the Internet" together as a couple or family.  The Internet is a personal medium experience.

Not TV, it's there when we commit to watching it. That's all there is on the screen for the whole family to see.  We've learned to expect it for 60 years.  And TV shows and advertising is about emotion and so is politics.  You know the sappy ads that pull at your heart strings and cause you to choke up?  Well, for many, they do, and it's mighty powerful.

So how a leader performs in a TV debate can be a campaign game-changer.  It is a glimpse of how the ongoing legislative question period and debate would go, but more importantly, how the leader is perceived emotionally by the view, breaking it down to a simple question:  How does the leader make you feel?

You could have a leader with a 180 IQ and Mensa member who has done all the advanced statistics and understanding on how to build a perfect society, but if they have the emotional and social capability of an inanimate object, you're not buying it.  You're not in, because you don't have that emotional connection--a bond and common understanding where you can trust the leader to know that he or she represents you.

Emotion trumps ideology in most circumstances.  Oh sure, voters have their political views and beliefs and they will attach those views to a tree if the tree had the same view, but this is where emotion is added to ideology and it's even more powerful.  I know people who have a certain strong ideology but will vote for the individual that, while they don't necessarily fit with their view. They just simply believe the person is the best representative for the job and who will actually lead.

One of my favourite quotes is from the movie "The American President" starring Michael Douglas, Martin Sheen, and Michael J. Fox.

Lewis Rothschild: You have a deeper love of this country than any man I've ever known. And I want to know what it says to you that in the past seven weeks, 59% of Americans have begun to question your patriotism.

President Andrew Shepherd: Look, if the people want to listen to-...

Lewis Rothschild: They don't have a choice! Bob Rumson is the only one doing the talking! People want leadership, Mr. President, and in the absence of genuine leadership, they'll listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership. They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand.

President Andrew Shepherd: Lewis, we've had presidents who were beloved, who couldn't find a coherent sentence with two hands and a flashlight. People don't drink the sand because they're thirsty. They drink the sand because they don't know the difference.

Remind you of a certain former premier?

And so here we are today, in probably Alberta's most important party leadership debate in my lifetime.

As such, Albertans are searching for leadership--a leader who won't stab them in the back and who is offering reasonably-sounding solutions.  The details and effectiveness of those solutions are up for continued debate, but if the leader can present even a coherent sentence that makes sense, doesn't turn them off, and it's coupled with some emotion, that voter can be swayed.

What the majority of voters are looking for in this one is any reason whatsoever to not for the Prentice PCs.  Any little mistake or flip flop is amplified for Prentice and in tracking this election, I would say it isn't going particularly well.  Prentice has the uphill climb to overcome this hurdle because voters on both sides are fed up.  They don't like the recent provincial budget, as much as it's being sold as an honest one.  It's riddled with tax hikes on average Albertans--tax hikes, which conservatives can't stand, but it doesn't raise corporate taxes, which progressives can't stand.

Prentice called the election, violating the election-timing law that was put in place. He also knew all the other parties funds were depleted, especially the Wildrose including a fresh leader, with the Liberals having an interim. However, the NDP's Rachel Notley, who's well-respected father led the party in the 80's, has had some time to get her campaign ready and you have to admit, absolutely the best run campaign. There's no doubt who's winning the sign war in Edmonton. So methinks Prentice forgot about that, and possibly dismissing the NDP's chances of actually winning gov't.

The progressives that were once on the Alison Redford's train and the traditional liberals have left the PC station and have flocked to Rachel Notley.  They are not finding Prentice to be "that guy" they can trust, or progressive, even so far as disagreeing with the tax hikes on the middle and lower class.

And Conservatives in general are abandoning the PCs ... again.  Even a chunk of the traditional PC base has dipped them well below 30% in the polls and that's worth noting, especially trailing third overall.

But with that, conservatives and economic libertarians are going to watch with great intention to see if Wildrose leader Brian Jean can be everything trustworthy-wise Danielle Smith was not.  Any emotional glimpse that he actually can put a coherent sentence together without making any bonehead comments and he can be elevated.  Problem is, the Wildrose didn't field enough candidates province-wide.

With less than two weeks to go to Cinco de Mayo, the time has come for the PCs to pull another one out of their ass with a last ditch effort to put fear into their base to come home instead of running away.  The meeting with the old school campaign bankrollers to fund a TV ad blitz has probably already happened and as the other parties can't afford such a campaign, you will see every desperate attempt to woo voters back to the PCs and instill emotional fear into those who are on the fence with ads featuring Prentice selling you on it.

With that, coupled with tonight's leadership debate, the emotions that are stirred by the leaders will determine whether it's the end of the PCs 44 year dynasty or if they survive another day, and that is significant for Albertans to watch.

Why?  Because it's good TV.

Do the PCs think we're stupid? Alison Redford resigns as a PC MLA

"See! There's no one on that plane, Dave."  (not actual quote)
Premier Dave Hancock with former premier Alison Redford, who stepped down during this legislature session, in a FILE PHOTO. (EDMONTON SUN/File)

One minute you're flying around on a plane with your daughter and only a few people on it while looking forward to your new Premier's Palace on top of the refurbished Federal Building in Edmonton, then the next you're told to step down or more allegations will surface, and soon, of what we already knew, the auditor general reports you've really really been abusing your flight expenses, and staffers were making up people to be on those flights.

Oh, but you thought there were always more people on those flights.  Riiight.

No longer will Alison Redford, now known as the worst premier in Alberta's history (Canada too?), have her name and face on the side of the party bus.  She's been thrown under it.   No longer premier and now no longer MLA (not like she was showing up anyway), and now the RCMP are going to investigate.

Such is life in the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta.

What perfect timing too though, eh?  They should thank Redford for this nice distraction.

Nice distraction?  From what?  What do I mean?

Let us not forget how this party built up a coalition of ATA and AUPE folks to vote for them and Redford in the last election by promising money and stuff only to have them turn around and stab them in the backs by freezing their wages and benefits.  But then. THEN! Then just a couple weeks ago, these PCs quietly turn around again and GIVE THEMSELVES THE VERY SAME RAISE those employees were to get.

Did you vote for the PCs last election?  Nice going.

PCAA president, (who cares what his name is), then says it was Redford's "personal choices that led to her demise".

Was it really?  Do you really think we're that stupid?  Did any of you do anything to stop it while it was happening?  And while it was happening, how did you not know?  Seriously, Doug Horner, how did you not know?  You're the provincial treasurer.  Are you that incompetent too?  You must be since the province has been mired in deficits and debt for many many years now, yet our population and tax base have increased well over other provinces.  Not only that, but Albertans are working longer hours than before.

Don't let the PCs fool you.  Don't let leadership "newcomer" Prentice, McIver or Lukazuk convince you it's going to be different under their watch.  It's not just about Redford's "personal choices".  It's the entire culture of entitlement of that party and total disregard for taxpayer's money and voting support.  The wink wink.  The nudge nudge.

It's the same party that allowed school boards and towns to pay for party fundraising dinners without any accountability on these illegal donations.

It's the same party that's been in government for 43 years.

It's the same party that elected Alison Redford as leader.

It's the same party that just might think we're stupid and won't notice.

CPC leadership vote methods

This deal breaker issue that created the Conservative Party has reared its head again.  That, or the CBC is making mountains out of molehills again.

So on the one hand, you have 'one member one vote' folks from the old Canadian Alliance/Reform Party.

On the other, you have 'equally weighted riding' folks from the old Progressive Conservative Party.

I believe the agreed one when the party was created was equally weighted ridings but where a riding needed a minimum of 100 members, giving them 100 points.

Now, you're asking, what does an old Reformer like me prefer?

I actually think 'one member one vote' is not good.  That's not how our federal elections run, nor is it how we select our prime minister.  Ridings must be respected--it's a fundamental aspect of a parliamentary representative democracy.  Ridings are the organizational grassroot itself.  Without them, being a member of a party is basically useless and it's where campaign teams are borne out of.  As well, it pits large member regions against smaller ones and that's not good for unity or equality across the country.

But I also think the delegate/convention system is good.  I think there should be a single leadership convention like in the old days and delegates vote on behalf of riding.  Then the run off votes happen in the same day.  It's bloody exciting... and well... bloody (ask David Orchard).  It's true blood bath politics.  Separate run off votes weeks later that the Canadian Alliance had wasted money and time and it was not as exciting. I was there.

As well, why is the party even bothering to look at this non-issue?  Stephen Harper's going to be Prime Minister for the next 8 years at least anyway.