Budget 2011 - Texas Hold 'Em

Budget 2011 is turning out to be a classic game of Texas Hold 'Em Poker.


Two cards are dealt to every player.
The Flop is like the first reading of the budget.

Harper's got pocket queens and bets over $200 billion.
Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe doesn't like cards with royalty on it, but he calls anyway.
Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff hasn't even looked at his cards, but he knows it can't be that good, but he still calls.
NDP leader Jack Layton calls Harper's hand, saying "there's always hope for amendments".

The Turn?

Harper sees a high card turn from the public, realizes he's still got a good hand and doesn't budge, maybe offering a GST cut on home heating to Layton, so he doesn't bet it as high as he thought.
Duceppe's got a good hand as always, he calls.
Ignatieff still doesn't look at his cards, except Harvard to run back to, so he calls
Layton calls but raises the bet.
Harper calls Layton.

The River?
It's a queen.
Duceppe's got a pair.Ignatieff's got a pair.
Layton's got a pair.
Harper wins with three queens and we go to an election.

Next round?   The election itself.

Intentional contempt, non-confidence & the budget

I've been away in the U.S. and have heard that this week, the House Committee for something or other may find the Conservative government in contempt of Parliament for misleading the House.

The Bloc will probably agree, but I'm not sure if the NDP will go along with it and will wait for the budget, yet as an opposition party, you'd pretty much have to if the government is found in contempt, wouldn't you?  What kind of an opposition party are you if you don't?

But do the Conservatives even care?  I mean, I wonder if this is how they actually planned to have a non-confidence motion and election called... to rope all the opposition parties in, by intentionally being in contempt then blame the "Coalition" for bringing the government down.  Know what I mean?  Seems far fetched, but in politics, you sometimes never know.  If this scenario plays out, the budget will be leaked with good news I'm sure.

But if the government falls on the budget will there be enough goodies for the Bloc or NDP to vote for the budget?  We shall see.

The polls favour Harper and the Conservatives and are very close to a majority.  They are flush with cash.  The rest of the parties?  Not so much, so why they think it's a good time to have an election is beyond me, but again, they may not have a choice.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, the onslaught of TV ads against Ignatieff have inched his approval even further down and the recent ministerial 'scandals' and several high-profile BC MPs retiring haven't resonated with most Canadians either.  The economy is doing better than expected.  The budget deficit will be better than expected.  Canada is responding well to the crisis in Libya.

With all of that in play, it may be a perfect time for the Conservatives to secretly want an election by politically forcing the opposition to vote non-confidence in them over their contempt for the House.

Equally, it also may be a perfect time for backroom Liberals to engineer an election, causing Ignatieff to step down, and further to that, it may be a good time for the NDP to ask Jack to step down too.

UPDATE:  And just as I posted this, the House of Commons Affairs Committee has found the Conservative government in contempt of Parliament.   It's all up to you, Jack!

Parliamentary numbers

Today, Prime Minister Stephen Harper appointed two folks to the Senate--former CFL commissioner Larry Smith and Toronto preacher Don Meredith, bumping the Conservatives' standings in the 105 seat Senate to 54, just short of a majority but enough to get bills from the House passed and defeat opposition bills. (Correction: strikeout "just short of a majority")

As well, the Globe and Mail has an interesting and easy to read article on seat standings in the House of Commons.

HOUSE OF COMMONS

	Current	Hypothetical*	Difference
Conservative	143	154	+11
Liberal	77	73	-4
BQ	47	47	n/c
NDP	36	32	-4
Ind.	2	2	n/c
Vacant	3		-3

* - if Conservatives win all vulnerable seats and incumbant parties win vacanies.
So in the hypothetical situation, the Conservatives would be in majority zone with 50% of the seats, plus the two independents who usually vote with the government.

Now let's look at the senate.


SENATE

	Current	Hypothetical*	Difference
Conservative	54	43	-11
Liberal	47	41	-6
BQ	0	14	+14
NDP	0	4	+4
Progressive Conservative	2	1	-1
Ind.	2	2	n/c

* - if an elected Senate were in place in 1995.  Now this isn't entirely accurate of today's political climate but shows why there's a push by the Conservatives to have 8-year term limits for senators to try and knock off as many Liberals as possible.

ELECTION SPECULATION

Opposition Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has been throwing speculation balloons out there regarding the upcoming federal budget and that the Liberals will vote against it likely to trigger an election.  While at the same time, the Prime Minister has smartly said that there won't be a "poison pill" in the budget to vote against.  But that doesn't mean there might be a contentious one for the Liberals to trigger an election on and that issue may be the election focus among other things like a North American border for freer trade, refugee reform, and the continuing justice bills.

By saying he doesn't want to trigger an election, what the Prime Minister has done is put the ball in Ignatieff's hands.  The Conservatives are in power, have been leading in the polls, have way more money than the Liberals, and are also getting things through the Senate now so the momentum is with them for sure.  If the Liberals want to have an election, bring it on, but Canadians will know that it was Ignatieff who triggered it.  So in essence, Harper has once again out-manoeuvred Iggy once again.

MY PREDICTION

My guess is that secret backroom Liberals controlled by Bob Rae will push to defeat the budget, go for an election, sour the campaign to make Ignatieff look bad, reducing the number of Liberals seats to about 70, with the Conservatives barely winning a majority. Then a legitimate summer/fall Liberal leadership race will happen with Bob Rae going up against Trudeau, Kennedy, LeBlanc, and a handful of other candidates who want name recognition.

LIBERAL-NDP MERGER

If the Conservative get another minority, former NDP now Liberal leader Bob will push for the creation of the Liberal Democrats as a merger between the Liberals and NDP.  If a merger happens (although I don't think it will) the opposition will defeat the government again in late 2012 or 2013.  Bob may be in a good position here though as Canadians may grow tired of Stephen Harper, including Conservatives who wanted a majority.

In regards to the merger, there are a chunk of blue liberals who would probably jump ship to the Conservatives knowing there would be a strong socialist wing to the party.  And don't count out the Greens.  If they ever get a new leader who actually has political prowess, the Greens could cause vote splitting.

BACK TO THE PRESENT

So I think if Harper actually sees that the odds of a majority is above 40%, he'll poison the budget enough for the Liberals to have no choice but to defeat it.  If not, how long will Ignatieff wait as opposition leader and how long will Bob Rae sit and wait for his opportunity to strike?

In the meantime, Stephen Harper really has nothing to lose either way.