UCP leadership race gets crowded

Anyone else?  Following a slight majority leadership vote and the subsequent Alberta Premier Jason Kenney "stepping down", initially, we thought there'd be maybe a few contenders.

Former Wildrose leaders Danielle Smith and Brian Jean and probably an existing cabinet minister seemed to be the front-runners.  

Travis Toews is that cabinet minister who will likely have the backing of a good chunk of the existing executive.  But so might...

Rebecca Schulz - MLA and now former children's minister who seems to toe the party line.

Then there is… who?

Rajan Sawhney - MLA and now former transportation minister and previously the social services minster who saw claw backs on AISH but now says they should be restored with provinces finances in better shape.  Nice try.

Leela Aheer -- I've heard of her name but not sure... looking up... oh yes, she's a backbench MLA and has openly criticized Kenney.  She seems to be more on the progressive side.

Todd Loewen -- I think he was booted out of the UCP caucus for, you guessed it, criticizing Kenney.  He seems to be on the right flank.

Bill Rock -- Haven't heard of his name before but now see that he's mayor of Amisk.

But now we have Michelle Rempel Garner who is seriously contemplating a switch. This is an odd move considering she’s been backing Jean Charest in the CPC leadership race. Does she not see if he wins she’d be elevated or does she see he won’t win over Pierre Polievre?  

The UCP has a $150,000 fee to enter.  Federally, it’s twice that I think.  

Of the MLAs, Toews has the most name recognition but campaigns matter.  As this is a ranked ballot, having similar candidates is beneficial to then rally subsequent round counts.

That's how Erin O'Toole won.  There were more votes to be found in subsequent rounds from the other candidates like Leslyn Lewis on the social conservative side.  But it eventually bit him in the ass as he tried to move the party to the middle.  Peter MacKay didn't have as many.  Where Jean Charest has an advantage here though is there are a couple other progressive-minded candidates where he can get other ranked choices from.

I personally don’t like these ranked ballots. Let’s go back to delegates and conventions! 

So converting the history to now, the ideological streams appear to line up on the choices.  While smaller campaigns aren’t obligated to be loyal to the bigger fish, and there’s no time for a run off vote, candidates need to widen their message a bit to envelope the other campaigns while creating a wedge between the other bigger fish.  

It’s a fine balance that’s a different style of campaigning than a usual election where you simply need a plurality of votes.  Here you need 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th round voted all in the same process!  

How would I rank in a vote?   

I honestly have no idea.  I’m not a member anymore.  

O'Toole learned, MacKay didn't

 #cdnpoli #cpcldr

Erin O'Toole, the newly elected Conservative Party leader, learned from his last run that he needed to play more hardball.  In that previous race not long ago, O'Toole came across as a more progressive conservative and didn't get the support or attention compared initially to Kevin O'Leary, Maxime Bernier, or Andrew Scheer.  

What's perplexing is Peter MacKay used to play hardball. But that was when he won the Progressive Conservative leadership in 2003 when he signed a promise on a napkin to candidate David Orchard that he wouldn't merge the PCs with the newly-led Stephen Harper's Canadian Alliance.

PC leadership 2003

You'll recall that race 17 years ago, was one of the last convention-style leadership elections with delegates. The results:

1st ballot:  MacKay 41.1%, Orchard 24.3%, Jim Prentice 18.2%, Scott Brison 16.4%, Craig Chandler 0% (endorsed Prentice)

2nd ballot:  MacKay 39.7%, Orchard 24.1%, Jim Prentice 18.2%, Scott Brison 18.0%

3rd ballot:  MacKay 45.0%, Orchard 24.6%, Jim Prentice 30.4%, Scott Brison (endorsed Prentice)

4th ballot:  MacKay 64.8%, Orchard (endorsed MacKay), Jim Prentice 35.2%

The result was later that year, the two conservative parties merged with the Canadian Alliance members voting by mail with 96% in favour, and for the PCs, a quick riding by riding phone-in blitz.  A leadership race ensued, MacKay sat it out, and Harper won over MacKay's future girlfriend and then Liberal floor-crosser, Belinda Stronach.  Harper would go on to lose to Paul Martin's Liberals, albeit a minority government.  But then because of Adscam prominent in voters minds and a poor Liberal campaign run by strategists David Herle and Scott Reid, Harper won a couple minority governments, one against Stephane Dion.  He'd eventually win his "strong stable majority Conservative government" against Michael Ignatieff with a strong NDP showing as its first time as official opposition by the late great Jack Layton. About a decade of Harper as Prime Minister, until Justin Trudeau came along.

CPC 2020

For MacKay in 2020, there appeared to be an overconfidence in his campaign, almost passive in thinking it was an anointment, and shows that having the majority of caucus support doesn't always guarantee a win.  Stephen Harper never campaigned like that.

From the start this leadership race, pandemic aside, nearly out of the gate, when asked whether he'd march in pride parades, Erin O'Toole's answer was basically "if first-responders are allowed, then yes" where MacKay simply said yes.  That set the tone early-on and drew lines in the sand and sent a signal to the other candidate supporters that he's listening.

Did the pandemic affect Peter MacKay's chance of winning?  I don't think so. The candidates were already in full-swing and members had an idea who they're first choice was. It was the second and third choices that were really in play after that. Or were they?

On that, leadership candidate Dr. Leslyn Lewis made a strong impact on 2nd and 3rd ballot choices as there was more time for the membership to get to know her and what she stood for.  She ran a very reputable campaign that garnered much respect and attention. She actually had the most votes on the 2nd ballot but not points--meaning she didn't have enough broad national support (more on that).  She plans to run for MP again.  As a way to draw attention to a local candidacy, running for leadership certainly helps.

Social Conservatism

With O'Toole winning, people I know who are more liberal in their views said they were disappointed in the results as they would have voted for Peter MacKay's Conservatives.  They're tired of Trudeau's public and private ethics violations.  They see O'Toole's win as a unification, albeit a party take-over by social conservatives.  

Perhaps.  If you look at O'Toole's voting record in the House of Commons and what he's said, he's really not a true social conservative and the Campaign Life Coalition certainly does not support him.  But his campaign made it seem to the Sloan and Lewis social conservatives that there was no room for them in a Peter MacKay-led Conservative Party, but there was in his.  And that's all it really seemed to take.

Canadian conservatives are an enigma in politics. I've been following it intensely for 30 years and have been at some of its historical moments.  Some conservatives can't stand it when Liberals win, but some accept it.  But when they do win, it's only when they are united, despite the vast divisions socially, and that takes having an ear to both sides.

Wexit

Beyond the social ideology, there is an eminent threat from the Wexit Western Canada and Alberta separatists led by former Harper cabinet minister and government house leader, Jay Hill.  Will O'Toole be able to appease them or will they remain a small faction, as is usual with blurts of western separatism?  

I think if he doesn't fan the flames and ensures Wexit doesn't grow, they won't split votes with the Conservatives, there's nothing to worry about.  Peter MacKay's first ballot third place showing in Alberta may indicate that if he won, Wexit would have more teeth.  With Erin O'Toole winning, we haven't heard anything in the past few days from Wexit.

Quebec

Then there's Quebec--which, like Andrew Scheer did in pandering to the dairy industry, those ridings put O'Toole over the top. Conservative membership continues to wane in Quebec and membership numbers have dropped--likely because there wasn't a candidate from there and the four candidates in the race did not have their French-speaking up to snuff.   Further, with many ridings having fewer than 100 members, giving a single vote far more sway there than in every populated Alberta riding.  MacKay had the backing of most of the Quebec caucus, yet they just didn't deliver for him.

Uniting conservatives of different shades under a big blue tent is never an easy task.  You can't shun or not listen to Western alienation. You can't shun or not listen to social conservatives.  You can't shun or not listen to progressives.

Stephen Harper knew how to do just that and why he was so successful at the party-level, and nationally as well.  But he had unifying conservative policies that all stripes could get behind. 

It seems Erin O'Toole learned.  We'll see if this translates nationally.

Scheer: "Re-double our efforts"

 #cdnpoli

“More Canadians wanted us to win this election than any other party,” Scheer said. The next day he framed the loss as the “first step” towards ousting Trudeau. “We’re going to re-double our efforts for next time,” he said.  (Source.)

This brings to mind a very similar quote spoken in a very popular movie.

And we all know what happened to the Death Star Version 2 anyway, don't we?

Canadian 2020 election prediction and other predictions

Election Predictions! Get your Election Predictions here! My Tory majority prediction from last week is out the window. I’m seeing it’s almost like 1972 when another Trudeau led a minority coalition. History repeats itself.

142 Conservatives
125 Liberals
35 NDP
33 Bloc
2 Green
1 Independent
0 People’s Party

As pollster Nik Nanos said, “Now it’s about the ground game and delivering votes.” This is where I believe the Conservatives have an advantage. With the advance polls showing a 25% increase, the Conservative base being larger, more motivated, and unwavering, the campaign has been relentless in getting out the vote in the advance polls and will be on Oct 21. But it won’t be enough in Ontario to flip the 905.

The aftermath will see many wanting Trudeau, Singh, and May try to form a coalition government of Liberals, NDP, and Greens.

Trudeau being the self-serving guy he is will try and make it work. So they give it a shot and ask the GG to form government.

After many recent provincial elections, and this one being very divisive, Canadians will reject the idea of having another election. The coalition government lives on.

Tories are careful not to be seen “in bed” with the Bloc separatists to defeat the government. But oh man, they are angrier than ever.

The country couldn’t be more divided. Alberta separation sentiment becomes more of the talk and while a federal Alberta Block Party becomes a thing, Premier Kenney gets even louder about provincial rights. For the Bloc, same thing.

After about two years, the national debate on provincial autonomy becomes the reason why the Tories and Bloc decide to defeat the coalition government.

All the parties have the same leaders. Liberals call the Tories bluff and Canadians tired of the stunt, plus an unstable recession economy, vote for stability with Trudeau in a majority government again.

Just like his father did in 1974. Like I said, history repeats itself.

Andrew Scheer steps down as Tory leader. Tories have a leadership race in 2022 and Peter MacKay wins it. Over whom, I’m not sure.

Canadians tired of ten years of Trudeau at the helm, vote for change in 2025 and lean to MacKay’s more moderate Conservative party with a majority. This is where it differs from history because Tory Joe Clark won the election with a minority in 1979. This is because comparatively, Peter is well known compared to Joe at the time. MacKay wins two terms.

There you have it folks.

Oh, and Kenney wins Alberta again in 2023 and 2027. Ford does not win Ontario in 2022 and for the federal Tories, this is a good thing.

Meanwhile in the USA, Trump wins in 2020. With the Democrats not finding a new candidate, Barack Obama is begged to return in 2024.

In Russia in 2024, after two terms of Putin, Medvedev wins the presidency again with Putin as his Prime Minister again. In 2030, Putin wins again and rules until 2042 at the age of 89.

To keep Putin in check until then, German Chancellor Angela Merkel continues until the age of 88.

The UK has four more prime ministers and still hasn’t Brexited the EU.

Pope Francis remains in perfect health until he steps down in 2029 at 92 years.

Some of these predictions might very well come true (see: Putin).

Now remember to always vote when you can. Do it early and do it often!

Trudeau mentioning Doug Ford as much as Scheer is working

 #cdnpoli #cdnelxn

Like I said in my last post, Ontario is the real battleground and why Trudeau mentions Ford just as much as Scheer, and is still even mentioning Harper.

The current aggregation of polls in Ontario shows that although the Liberals are up by about 7 points, seat-wise it translates as:

75 (+/- 31) Liberals
30 (+/- 28) Conservatives

So the absolute worst the Liberals can do in Ontario is 44 seats and Conservatives best is 58 which makes other parts of the country in play.  Half of that is 60 for Liberals and 44 for Conservatives.

Note that before the campaign the seat projections were:
63 Liberals
49 Conservatives

This is a change of:
+12 seats Liberals
 -19 seats Conservatives

That's a +27 seat swing in Ontario in favour of Trudeau.  SEATS.  This means that the Conservative campaign in Ontario has massively failed and why Trudeau will win. Full stop. Nothing else really matters, does it?

When the federal party doesn't want to mention the provincial leader, the provincial party infrastructure support collapses.  I mean, the Ontario PCs aren't exactly united after that last leadership debacle either and are probably not too motivated to support boring Saskatchewan Scheer.

It's also why the Liberals are targeting Scheer's credibility now as well and why he's hit a ceiling. 

From our cheap seats, it appears the best the Conservatives can really do is make Scheer seem bland and not scary and equally attack Trudeau on his proven lack of credibility and hope that those who were leaning toward him just don't vote. 

But that's a stretch against decades of history.

Has there really been a polarizing issue dividing Canadians other than leader credibility?  Is it the environment?  Liberals are banking on that one in order to gain a couple points with those leaning toward Green or NDP, but the Greens in Ontario are insignificant where the NDP play in Northern Ontario quite well and there are several swing ridings there.

With Thanksgiving weekend approaching and family talks at the dinner tables, policy won't be the discussion, but how fake Trudeau is and how unscary Scheer is which boils down to the cliche "The devil we know versus the one we don't" or "The blackface devil we know versus the whiteface quiet scary one."

And in Ontario, it appears Ford has also become a known devil and history shows the federal Conservatives will get the fallout from that.

Why an Ontario political party should not help federally and vice versa

The article below shows how Ontarians provincial election results continue to massively affect the next federal election.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/election-2019/exclusive-poll-reveals-doug-ford-factor-a-big-problem-for-scheers-conservatives-in-ontario

Look at the history, particularly post-WWII.

Provincially, the majority of Ontarians will vote in the next election for the other party that is not in power federally about 86% of the time.

Federally, the majority of Ontarians will vote for the other party that is not in power provincially about 65% of the time, which is what appears will happen on October 21, 2019 federally as the article above certainly indicates that the majority of Ontarians will vote for the federal Liberals over the provincial PCs.

So I continue to wonder why a federal party would help their provincial cousins in Ontario knowing they are going against history a large majority of the time and vice versa.

If anything, they should remain quiet, stay far away, and hope they lose.

Here’s the list..

	Ontario	Canada	Ontarians balance provincially?	Ontarians balance federally?
1940	Liberal	Liberal
1941	Liberal	Liberal
1942	Liberal	Liberal
1943	PC	Liberal	Y
1944	PC	Liberal
1945	PC	Liberal	Y	Y
1946	PC	Liberal
1947	PC	Liberal
1948	PC	Liberal	Y
1949	PC	Liberal		Y
1950	PC	Liberal
1951	PC	Liberal	Y
1952	PC	Liberal
1953	PC	Liberal		Y
1954	PC	Liberal
1955	PC	Liberal	Y
1956	PC	Liberal
1957	PC	PC		N
1958	PC	PC		N
1959	PC	PC	N
1960	PC	PC
1961	PC	PC
1962	PC	PC		N
1963	PC	Liberal	Y	Y
1964	PC	Liberal
1965	PC	Liberal		Y
1966	PC	Liberal
1967	PC	Liberal	Y
1968	PC	Liberal		Y
1969	PC	Liberal
1970	PC	Liberal
1971	PC	Liberal	Y
1972	PC	Liberal		Y
1973	PC	Liberal
1974	PC	Liberal		Y
1975	PC	Liberal	Y
1976	PC	Liberal
1977	PC	Liberal	Y
1978	PC	Liberal
1979	PC	PC		N
1980	PC	Liberal		Y
1981	PC	Liberal	Y
1982	PC	Liberal
1983	PC	Liberal
1984	PC	PC		N
1985	PC	PC	N
1986	PC	PC
1987	Liberal	PC	Y
1988	Liberal	PC		Y
1989	Liberal	PC
1990	NDP	PC	Y
1991	NDP	PC
1992	NDP	PC
1993	NDP	Liberal		N
1994	NDP	Liberal
1995	PC	Liberal	Y
1996	PC	Liberal
1997	PC	Liberal		Y
1998	PC	Liberal
1999	PC	Liberal	Y
2000	PC	Liberal		Y
2001	PC	Liberal
2002	PC	Liberal
2003	Liberal	Liberal	N
2004	Liberal	Liberal		N
2005	Liberal	Liberal
2006	Liberal	Conservative		Y
2007	Liberal	Conservative	Y
2008	Liberal	Conservative		Y
2009	Liberal	Conservative
2010	Liberal	Conservative
2011	Liberal	Conservative	Y	Y
2012	Liberal	Conservative
2013	Liberal	Conservative
2014	Liberal	Conservative	Y
2015	Liberal	Liberal		N
2016	Liberal	Liberal
2017	Liberal	Liberal
2018	PC	Liberal	Y
2019	PC			?
			19	15
			22	23
			0.863636364	0.652173913

 

Rah Rah Ras Putin continues his grip

A quick timeline of Vladimir Putin's reign over Russia:

1999 - On the surprise resignation of Boris Yeltsin, Putin became acting Russian President

2000 - Elected as President for a 4 year term

2004 - Elected as President for a 4 year term

2008 - Putin's puppet Dimitry Medvedev elected as President for 4 year term.  Medvedev appoints Putin as Prime Minister.  Soon, the 4 year term limit is increased to 6 years.

2012 - Putin elected as President for 6 year term.

2014 - Russia hosts the Winter Olympics in Sochi.  Russia invades and annexes Crimea from Ukraine and to this day, continues a microwar in Eastern Ukraine.

2018 - At 65 years of age, Putin is elected as President for 6 year term.  He'll be 71 in 2024.

Let me guess.  In 2024, Medvedev will be President and Putin will be appointed Prime Minister for 6 years.

Without a doubt, Vladimir Putin is and will be the most successful politician of my generation having served as a leader over a country that "elects" for 30 years.

Meanwhile over 1600 protesters have been arrested.

Alberta Party taken over by PCs

 #abpoli

Greg Clark
METRO CALGARY FILE PHOTO

Alberta Party leader and nice guy Greg Clark stepped down on November 10, a Friday before a long-weekend, which is a subtle method to subvert any media traction.

The announcement then fell only to the fanfare of politicos and former PCers (emphasis on the "P") from the Redford days, who have obviously been pining for room at the table since Kenney won the leadership of the UCP. 

I know folks who didn't even know there was an Alberta Party.  "So there's an Alberta Party. Who knew?"

And that right there is why Mr. Clark was shown the door.  If you're going up against the KenneyMachine, playing nice won't get you as far as you need to go.  It is why the Alberta Party could not get momentum or build--certainly in comparison it took for the Wildrose.

Politics, in case you haven't noticed, and as I've mentioned in my previous post, has become the game of divide and conquer.  There is no nice-guy mushy middle where ideas are debated, compromises made, and an agreeable solution is churned out and popped to the surface.  It's become two sides.  So for the Alberta Party which like the Alberta Liberal Party prided itself on middleware, balance, and "working together", found itself like a turtle on its back waiting to be picked up, kissed, and transformed into a komodo dragon (or whatever) as a reasonable home for more aggressive progressives (I'm totally coining that term).

And so now we have a slew of potential leadership candidate names that remind me of a cast of characters from a certain cabinet.

Thomas Lukaszuk
Stephen Mandel
Dr. Gerry Preddy

The Twittertone of the Alberta Party has upped its game too.  As I said, it's how politics has changed into 140 character sound bites (280 for the lucky few).  Twitter is the level playing field and if you can gain attention with loud sounding bites and attacks, there's bound to be folks who'll support you.

So how can the Alberta Party gain attention and you know, support?

Well, they have to have a three pronged approach and their policies need to line up carefully in order to be able to attract and divide and conquer.

Firstly, their whole schtick is they're the P in the now gone PC party.  So they'll attract disenfranchised PCers who don't like Kenney's social stances.  But they'll need to balance that with strong fiscal policies.  I'd suggest being more aggressive than Kenney on tax cuts.  But the Alberta Party doesn't mind carbon taxes.

Secondly, they need to attract old Liberals that supported Redford and put her over the finish line.  If the Alberta Party is ahead of the Liberals and can get their message out better, that might be enough. 

Thirdly, they need to attract really soft NDP supporters who traditionally voted PC but only voted for Notley because she seemed nice and smart, didn't think math was hard, and was all populist, and they could put the PCers back in their place after 44 years of power.  (Well, it worked, didn't it?)  This is harder to do and the votes that are really up for grabs next election. 

On one hand, you have those former PC voters who feel now they got duped because Notley didn't campaign on a carbon tax, yet here we are paying for it.  Yet despite the carbon tax, the government is spending way more than ever before and growing the government with the deficits and debt higher than ever.  So if you're fiscally conservative, the NDP is not your home.

Fourthly, attract fertility folks... and there are thousands of them (us).  They (we) are not happy one bit about Alberta Health Services' decision to end the fertility clinic at the Royal Alex.  So much so, even the AUPE is suing them and Friends of Medicare is on minister Sarah Hoffman's back about it.  Hoffman's been deflecting saying all five doctors wanted to go to the new private clinic when only two did.  The primary doctor is livid about the decision and doesn't believe AHS or the NDP government "cares about Alberta families."  Ouch.  I'd suggest the Alberta Party go all in on this one, bring back the clinic, and then offer one free IVF treatment like they do in many other countries.  They'd gain thousands of votes on that one policy alone.  And it's also the right decision and policy.  I'm going to save a separate post for this, so stay tuned.

Anyway, the Alberta Party has an opportunity to carve itself in the middle but truly divide and conquer it from the bad policies of the left and right.  How far they'll go to do just that in the short period of time they have until the next election will be telling.

When Ed Stelmach won the PC leadership on the second ballot he said, "Nice guys do finish first." 

Well, how long did that last?

Playing nice doesn't work.

Ask Greg Clark.

The Jason Kenney Machine vs. Rachel Notley is not so clear-cut

 #abpoli #ucp #abndp

UCP MLA David Rodney grimaces in feeling the Kenney steamroll-effect in having to step down to make way for new UCP leader Jason Kenney to run in a by-election.    Image courtesy of CBC.ca

Now that longtime Reform/Canadian Alliance/Conservative MP and cabinet minister Jason Kenney is leader of the Alberta UCP and the leadership hangover has subsided, within a few days later we have already seen:

• Leadership candidate Brian Jean is left out of UCP caucus roles and unsure of his future
• Jason Dixon named Official Opposition Leader
• On day uno of the new legislature session, not even an hour into the session and Premier Rachel Notley was tweeting from her seat passively up to the gallery where Kenney was seated: "We'll stand against UCP’s job-killing, gay-outing, school-cutting, health privatizing, backward-looking, hope-destroying, divisive agenda."
• Kenney and his supporters were then aggressively counter-tweeting
• Dave Rodney, MLA for Calgary-Lougheed steps down to make way for Kenney

When Kenney ran for the PC Alberta leadership, "The KennyMachine" used forceful political tactics to steamroll through onto easy wins.  Detractors simply leave the party and get the hell out of the way, leaving no internal dissension and in the end only the true opponent remains in the cross-hairs.  To do that, Kenney did not require much of a platform, touting that the members will decide what that platform will be.  So supposedly, no matter what Kenney's views and statements in the past are on gay marriage, Kenney supporters will back him, because varying opinions are welcome. 

Not including Brian Jean in the caucus, certainly doesn't make the party seem "United" as its namesake, but it sends one of those steamroll messages that its Kenney's party now, and Brian can't do anything to undermine him.

And with Brian aside, that "debate", that political war, will now ramp up like we have never seen before in Alberta and its relatively low-key debate between similar parties opposed to the now polarizing differences in ideology.

Politics and campaigns are about feeling.  Everyone knows that.  How does a candidate make you feel?  We've all seen very capable, intelligent people run with the better and proven policies only to lose to an opponent that made the electorate "feel" better.  (See Harper vs. Trudeau).

That feeling approach is how the federal style of using issues in certain regions to divide and conquer voters on boutique policies like targeted tax policies or social stances is a science unto its own.  Will that same approach work for Kenney and Notley?  I don't believe it will work as well in Alberta, and may backfire.  There just isn't that East vs. West feel between Calgary vs. Edmonton, or urban vs. rural.  After the floods, wildfires, and economic strife, Albertans seem to have pulled together on their own, tearing down the small walls of differences there may have been before.

So Geography aside, there are still lines that can be drawn.  Notley's and Eggan's stance against Catholic schools wanting to form their own policy has the Catholic community reeling.  Perhaps she realized they didn't have their support anyway, so no loss, or it was a mistake and she has alienated them, we will see.

Against Kenney, Notley quickly began the first salvo, not just on Kenney, but on the whole UCP regarding stances on social policies like outing kids in student gay-straight alliances, being anti or pro gay marriage, and supposed health-care privatizing.

If Schweitzer had one, that type of attack would likely not have happened, leaving Notley to go after his clear-cut lower tax policies for businesses and individuals, turning the line into a class war.

However, that would defy her populist campaign that got her in the Premier's chair in the first place, as thousands of longtime PC support folks tired of the 44 years and PC lavish expenses and revolving premier door, bought in to her charisma and "hey we're not socialists" because we don't think "math is hard". 

But now, with a carbon tax she didn't campaign on, and pipelines not happening despite her guarantee of a "social license", Kenney will use his machine to communicate that Notley is out of touch with middle class families, the economy's lagging, carbon tax hurts the poor, she kills jobs and investment, and will likely ignore getting into the social policy debate--defaulting it to the party members to decide because "I listen to the members".   This, despite the UCP's first policy was to support LGBTQ folks--but for that community, there needs to be actions and not words.  He will need to be really careful not to also getting dragged into being anti-government for a government he wants to lead--despite how bloatedly large the government has become in the last two years in "creating jobs".

For the libertarian voter, which is a plurality of the province, the decision will come down to whether how important it is they believe Kenney will make his past social policy stances into law and if they are more damaging to our society than NDP economic policies already in place.

With that, social policy tends to bring out stronger feelings in voters than boring economic ones, and so, whichever party and leader is able to fire up those feelings against the other the most will win.  Trump won because he simply stirred up people's anger against "the elite"--so much so, that it didn't matter what he said, they were angry, and no matter how illogical or hypocritical he was, "this is how I feel" trumped anything else (pun totally intended).

And so for the KenneyMachine to actually beat Notley in 2019, despite the terribly inaccurate polls, with Kenney as leader and his long list of baggage, that outcome is not so clear-cut.

What Scheer needs to do

. #cdnpoli

Newly minted CPC leader, Andrew Scheer, needs to do the following to get a leg up on Trudeau.  The Liberals have done a marvellous job framing Trudeau with staged "impromptu" moments, yet when you hear him speak, it's difficult to listen to his "ah uh"s all the time.

It's going to take the presentation of a mountain of direct gaffed quotes he's made so folks can break through this mysticism the Liberals have crafted around him.

To counter that, Andrew Scheer should consider doing the following five things over the next year to win people over, and not just complain about Trudeau.  Let the Party take care of that.  The traditional methods of politics are lost on Millennials.

Then Speaker of the House, Hon. Andrew Scheer and his family
Image courtesy of the Huffington Post

1.  Be funny in interviews, self-deprecating and humble, but lose the smirk when discussing serious issues.

2.  The Party should put out an online 1-2 minute video of him and his young family, meeting people, and clips of him hammering Trudeau in Question Period.

3.  Policies need to identify with Millennials, who are now becoming parents.  Target tax policy toward them, like writing off your mortgage payments, but make it personal.

4.  Change your social stance.

5.  Infiltrate social media with smart and funny memes.  Get the people to do the posting and sharing and work for you.

This isn't everything, but it's a start.