O'Toole learned, MacKay didn't

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Erin O'Toole, the newly elected Conservative Party leader, learned from his last run that he needed to play more hardball.  In that previous race not long ago, O'Toole came across as a more progressive conservative and didn't get the support or attention compared initially to Kevin O'Leary, Maxime Bernier, or Andrew Scheer.  

What's perplexing is Peter MacKay used to play hardball. But that was when he won the Progressive Conservative leadership in 2003 when he signed a promise on a napkin to candidate David Orchard that he wouldn't merge the PCs with the newly-led Stephen Harper's Canadian Alliance.

PC leadership 2003

You'll recall that race 17 years ago, was one of the last convention-style leadership elections with delegates. The results:

1st ballot:  MacKay 41.1%, Orchard 24.3%, Jim Prentice 18.2%, Scott Brison 16.4%, Craig Chandler 0% (endorsed Prentice)

2nd ballot:  MacKay 39.7%, Orchard 24.1%, Jim Prentice 18.2%, Scott Brison 18.0%

3rd ballot:  MacKay 45.0%, Orchard 24.6%, Jim Prentice 30.4%, Scott Brison (endorsed Prentice)

4th ballot:  MacKay 64.8%, Orchard (endorsed MacKay), Jim Prentice 35.2%

The result was later that year, the two conservative parties merged with the Canadian Alliance members voting by mail with 96% in favour, and for the PCs, a quick riding by riding phone-in blitz.  A leadership race ensued, MacKay sat it out, and Harper won over MacKay's future girlfriend and then Liberal floor-crosser, Belinda Stronach.  Harper would go on to lose to Paul Martin's Liberals, albeit a minority government.  But then because of Adscam prominent in voters minds and a poor Liberal campaign run by strategists David Herle and Scott Reid, Harper won a couple minority governments, one against Stephane Dion.  He'd eventually win his "strong stable majority Conservative government" against Michael Ignatieff with a strong NDP showing as its first time as official opposition by the late great Jack Layton. About a decade of Harper as Prime Minister, until Justin Trudeau came along.

CPC 2020

For MacKay in 2020, there appeared to be an overconfidence in his campaign, almost passive in thinking it was an anointment, and shows that having the majority of caucus support doesn't always guarantee a win.  Stephen Harper never campaigned like that.

From the start this leadership race, pandemic aside, nearly out of the gate, when asked whether he'd march in pride parades, Erin O'Toole's answer was basically "if first-responders are allowed, then yes" where MacKay simply said yes.  That set the tone early-on and drew lines in the sand and sent a signal to the other candidate supporters that he's listening.

Did the pandemic affect Peter MacKay's chance of winning?  I don't think so. The candidates were already in full-swing and members had an idea who they're first choice was. It was the second and third choices that were really in play after that. Or were they?

On that, leadership candidate Dr. Leslyn Lewis made a strong impact on 2nd and 3rd ballot choices as there was more time for the membership to get to know her and what she stood for.  She ran a very reputable campaign that garnered much respect and attention. She actually had the most votes on the 2nd ballot but not points--meaning she didn't have enough broad national support (more on that).  She plans to run for MP again.  As a way to draw attention to a local candidacy, running for leadership certainly helps.

Social Conservatism

With O'Toole winning, people I know who are more liberal in their views said they were disappointed in the results as they would have voted for Peter MacKay's Conservatives.  They're tired of Trudeau's public and private ethics violations.  They see O'Toole's win as a unification, albeit a party take-over by social conservatives.  

Perhaps.  If you look at O'Toole's voting record in the House of Commons and what he's said, he's really not a true social conservative and the Campaign Life Coalition certainly does not support him.  But his campaign made it seem to the Sloan and Lewis social conservatives that there was no room for them in a Peter MacKay-led Conservative Party, but there was in his.  And that's all it really seemed to take.

Canadian conservatives are an enigma in politics. I've been following it intensely for 30 years and have been at some of its historical moments.  Some conservatives can't stand it when Liberals win, but some accept it.  But when they do win, it's only when they are united, despite the vast divisions socially, and that takes having an ear to both sides.

Wexit

Beyond the social ideology, there is an eminent threat from the Wexit Western Canada and Alberta separatists led by former Harper cabinet minister and government house leader, Jay Hill.  Will O'Toole be able to appease them or will they remain a small faction, as is usual with blurts of western separatism?  

I think if he doesn't fan the flames and ensures Wexit doesn't grow, they won't split votes with the Conservatives, there's nothing to worry about.  Peter MacKay's first ballot third place showing in Alberta may indicate that if he won, Wexit would have more teeth.  With Erin O'Toole winning, we haven't heard anything in the past few days from Wexit.

Quebec

Then there's Quebec--which, like Andrew Scheer did in pandering to the dairy industry, those ridings put O'Toole over the top. Conservative membership continues to wane in Quebec and membership numbers have dropped--likely because there wasn't a candidate from there and the four candidates in the race did not have their French-speaking up to snuff.   Further, with many ridings having fewer than 100 members, giving a single vote far more sway there than in every populated Alberta riding.  MacKay had the backing of most of the Quebec caucus, yet they just didn't deliver for him.

Uniting conservatives of different shades under a big blue tent is never an easy task.  You can't shun or not listen to Western alienation. You can't shun or not listen to social conservatives.  You can't shun or not listen to progressives.

Stephen Harper knew how to do just that and why he was so successful at the party-level, and nationally as well.  But he had unifying conservative policies that all stripes could get behind. 

It seems Erin O'Toole learned.  We'll see if this translates nationally.