Trudeau mentioning Doug Ford as much as Scheer is working

 #cdnpoli #cdnelxn

Like I said in my last post, Ontario is the real battleground and why Trudeau mentions Ford just as much as Scheer, and is still even mentioning Harper.

The current aggregation of polls in Ontario shows that although the Liberals are up by about 7 points, seat-wise it translates as:

75 (+/- 31) Liberals
30 (+/- 28) Conservatives

So the absolute worst the Liberals can do in Ontario is 44 seats and Conservatives best is 58 which makes other parts of the country in play.  Half of that is 60 for Liberals and 44 for Conservatives.

Note that before the campaign the seat projections were:
63 Liberals
49 Conservatives

This is a change of:
+12 seats Liberals
 -19 seats Conservatives

That's a +27 seat swing in Ontario in favour of Trudeau.  SEATS.  This means that the Conservative campaign in Ontario has massively failed and why Trudeau will win. Full stop. Nothing else really matters, does it?

When the federal party doesn't want to mention the provincial leader, the provincial party infrastructure support collapses.  I mean, the Ontario PCs aren't exactly united after that last leadership debacle either and are probably not too motivated to support boring Saskatchewan Scheer.

It's also why the Liberals are targeting Scheer's credibility now as well and why he's hit a ceiling. 

From our cheap seats, it appears the best the Conservatives can really do is make Scheer seem bland and not scary and equally attack Trudeau on his proven lack of credibility and hope that those who were leaning toward him just don't vote. 

But that's a stretch against decades of history.

Has there really been a polarizing issue dividing Canadians other than leader credibility?  Is it the environment?  Liberals are banking on that one in order to gain a couple points with those leaning toward Green or NDP, but the Greens in Ontario are insignificant where the NDP play in Northern Ontario quite well and there are several swing ridings there.

With Thanksgiving weekend approaching and family talks at the dinner tables, policy won't be the discussion, but how fake Trudeau is and how unscary Scheer is which boils down to the cliche "The devil we know versus the one we don't" or "The blackface devil we know versus the whiteface quiet scary one."

And in Ontario, it appears Ford has also become a known devil and history shows the federal Conservatives will get the fallout from that.