Rob Silver asks the tough question

I've been glued to one of the best new political blogs, "Silver-Powers", a dual (duel?) blog on GlobeAndMail.com by two very bright party strategists, Liberal Rob Silver and Conservative Tim Powers.

One of Rob's latest postings asks THE tough question for Liberal MPs...

So either:

(a) The Liberal caucus was UNANIMOUS in supporting both the coalition and Dion as leader until May; or

(b) There are a bunch of MPs in the Liberal caucus who are both cowardly and whose word means little (or whose opinions change with the wind).

Really, this is a binary situation - make your choice.

Rob, a very good question, and I have an answer for you regarding why Liberal MPs do these types of things...

Very few have principle, they go whichever way the wind blows at the moment (or seems to blow), and thus, they have miscalculated the overwhelming view among Canadians that the coalition government isn't what we want, and why the polls show the Liberals at their lowest point in HISTORY.

Friends, that is NOT leadership. And this party wants to form government? That's how they've always been and always will be. If they can't even decide or stand up for anything, you really want them managing the economy at this time?

What drove them ALL to sign the letter for the Governor General? As your blogmate said, "The sniff of power."

Canadians saw that too.

Now that the sniff of power appears to be with Michael Ignatieff, leadership contender, Dominic LeBlanc has ended his bid and joined with Iggy. Too bad. Too bad the Liberal party doesn't respect democracy.

While the other contender, Bob Rae, has embraced the coalition because he's going to need new members joining from the NDP to be delegates at the Liberal convention, perhaps Ignatieff set him a trap and he fell into it.

Ignatieff never publicly said he's for or against the coalition and Bob Rae even had Ignatieff and LeBlanc show their public support for Stephane Dion as leader of the coalition government. I guess that is a wash, now that it appears Dion will step down (read: pushed out) in a few days at the Liberal caucus meeting instead of the originally planned May leadership convention in Vancouver.

Ignatieff's gut instinct was correct though, that the coalition is not a way to build the Liberal party, where it's Bob Rae's way to go.

Now that Dion is gone, and the party needs to accelerate that processes in getting a new leader, and that the coalition is now the so-called the backup plan, the Liberal caucus' new "instinct" is either:

A) the Liberals will support or abstain on the Conservative budget when the House starts up again in January, and resume with its May leadership convention, with Ignatieff having recently shored up caucus support, and Bob Rae will likely retreat from the coalition, but he'll be damaged goods,

or

B) the Liberals will vote against the budget and with new interim/permanent leader, Michael Ignatieff, already in place they will be 'ready' for a new election, and excited that they'll do better.

Ignatieff left the door open for Harper to have a strong budget.

I didn't mention the machinations of how the Liberals are picking their new leader, because frankly, it doesn't really matter. If the Liberal caucus does it this week and names Ignatieff as interim to replace Dion and decides it's not going to have a convention and says Ignatieff is permanent leader, it's going to divide the party for a while, but eventually, Liberals will balk, because "Ignatieff was going to be leader anyway, so get behind him or go hang out with Bob Rae."

So in my opinion, this coalition idea is as good as dead. And you know who's to thank? You. It's the thousands of Canadians who went out to show support for democracy and against the coalition takeover.

So now, it's up to Michael Ignatieff to decide if he wants to fight an election in February/March or if he wants to wait until May and spend cash on a leadership bid that he'll win anyway, raise money for the Liberals and then fight an election next fall.

Because I think he knows the Conservatives would win a majority in February/March, and so he'd will be opposition leader for 4 years.

That would be the smart thing to do, to wait, as it gives voters an opportunity to see who he is as opposition leader while they grow weary of Harper, otherwise, if he fights an election this February/March, people won't know him as well, and will be hesitant, while the Conservatives go neg on his ambition for power with the coalition, exposing his actual view against it and dividing the Liberals, while economic numbers improve, showing the Conservatives as good managers.

Parliamentary Wars

On Thursday, after a long two hour conversation, Prime Minister Stephen Harper was able to get (convince?) Governor General Michaelle Jean to prorogue (dissolve) parliament until the end of January.

So yeah.. um, this "Coalition" now reminds me of the Trade Federation and it's falling apart and I'm narrowing down the choices for Darth Sidious.

I was going to say Gilles Duceppe, but the guy is just so straightfoward and honest, so he's not really sneaking around the back rooms, that is unless someone like Jack Layton approaches him first.

It's definitely not Stephane Dion. What, with a crappy video response to Harper's short address, how could he have the dark side with him? As well, he left a crack open for Harper to work with him on the budget after the House returns in January. I think he saw the backlash against this coalition and how he would be viewed by Canadians... a power hungry politician, and not a statesman.

And speaking of backlash, check out the latest poll numbers...

65% of Canadians (55% Quebeckers) approve the prorogation.

And if an election were held today...
IPSOS: CPC 46%, LPC 23%, NDP 13%, BQ 9%, GPC 8%
COMPAS: CPC 51%, LPC 20%, NDP 10%, BQ 8%, GPC 6%

WOW!

So I've narrowed it down to two for the prize of Darth Sidious:
- Jack Layton
- Bob Rae

Bob's been wanting to marry the Liberals and NDP for many, many years and I think he sees it if he becomes Liberal Leader, he could reach out to the NDP and make that happen, like Chretien and Broadbent just did in getting this coalition off the ground in the first place. He's very pro-coalition and got leadership rival Michael Ignatieff to support Dion as the leader of the coalition, but Ignatieff doesn't really want to be a part of a coalition cabinet (very smart move).

So if Harper can compromise with Dion (forget the other two guys) and gain confidence of the house again on the budget in January, then Harper can come out on top and be like Luke Skywalker and defeat the dark side. Even if he doesn't and the Governor General calls for an election, with those poll numbers Harper will kick ass.

But, there's always Ignatieff. Maybe he's got metachorians in him too!

Nightmare on the Hill

I had a very vivid dream last night that played out in the House of Commons. Kind of a nightmare.

I was a page next to the Speaker's chair watching everything unfold with the Liberal/NDP coalition. Governor General, Her Excellency Michaelle Jean entered the chambers and called all the party leaders into her office while we all waited in anxiety.

Ten minutes later, they all returned and I stood next to Her Excellency. MP Jim Prentice stood up and announced to everyone that the Governor General has asked that the Prime Minister, Stephen Harper compromise and work with Opposition Leader Stephane Dion in coming up with a viable solution to prevent defeat of the duly elected government.

Everyone rejoiced. Mostly Conservatives.

Afterward, there was a party to celebrate, and I spoke with Her Excellency and thanked her for her wisdom.

Then I realized that I was dreaming within a dream and a friend of mine who works on the Hill told me that the Governor General actually allowed the coalition government to form with Stephane Dion as Prime Minister.

One of these dreams will come true. And one of them is a nightmare.

I can't understand for the life of me how on one hand that Stephane Dion can say that they will not defeat the government on the Throne Speech one week and the next day push for a confidence motion based on an economic update with basically the same content, save, of course, removing public party financing.

Any Liberal or NDP who says its about the economy is pushing poppycock. Its about a power grab, pure and simple.

And anyone who says the Harper government doesn't have the support of the majority of voters, although our parliamentary system allows a minority government to form, and then supports the coalition using the same parliamentary system to overturn the election results which gave the Harper government a mandate based on their economic proposals during the campaign, flies in the face of our parliamentary democracy.

Hypocrites abound and shameful.

"Good shot [pro]Rogue II" or another Rebel Alliance?

The current situation in Parliament reminds me of the Star Wars series--how an elected official, Senator Palpatine, was elected chancellor of the Galactic Senate, while as Sith Lord, Darth Sidious, secretly creates a mass crisis and war between the clones and robot army, and in order to restore "peace", single-handedly creates the Galactic Empire with himself as Emporer. Then with one swift move, wipes out the Jedi, the protectors of democracy, and rules for over a decade.

Thing is, with Parliament, I can't tell who to compare Palpatine/Sidious to.

With the release of the NDP taped conference call and claims that leader Jack Layton had a deal with the Bloc well before the Tory gov't's economic update, could this make Jack the Sith Lord. Is it Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe in helping to prop up a coalition giving the balance of power to his separatist movement? Or is it Ed Broadbent and Jean Chretien putting the deal together between the NDP and Liberals in the back room? Is it Stephane Dion who would be leader of the coalition gov't and thus prime minister, although he was resoundly rejected by voters. Or is it Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who has just prorogued parliament until the new year? Or is it Tory insiders, with new leadership websites for John Baird and Jim Prentice, secretly plotting a coup against Harper, so their future leadership hopefuls have a chance to move in and save the day?

See! Hard to tell, isn't it?

But what I do know is, whomever wins this recent situation in the end and stability returns, will be deemed "The New Hope", a.k.a. Luke Skywalker. That said, by properly applying The Force, the winner will also have to finally defeat his enemies, returning peace, order, and good government to Canada (a.k.a. winning a majority).

And this could apply to Liberal leadership contender, Michael Ignatieff, winning the race in May, raising the Liberal party out of the ashes, and defeating Harper in an election.

But it could also still apply to Stephen Harper, in his quest to destroy the Liberal party.

But as they often say in Star Wars, "I got a bad feeling about this."

Balk

I'm in shock. Absolute shock. I can't believe what's happening in the House of Commons.

1) The opposition parties are clammering the Conservatives for not spending a bazillion dollars on failing industries (auto, forestry, etc.) in the midst of a global economic crisis, while at the same time clammering them for selling of gov't assets, brokering a deal with the public service union, and removing public funding for political parties, all to prevent them from potentially going into deficit. All this, even though the gov't took measures over a year ago and that Canada is in the best shape economically of the G7. Their logic shocks me.

2) Even though we just had an election, the Liberals and NDP, brokered by has-been leaders, Jean Chretien and Ed Broadbent, are moving to form a coalition gov't, with the Bloc propping them up.

This is what happens when you have a weak leader like Stephane Dion who, just last week, said he wouldn't bring down the gov't because it would be irresponsible in this time of economic instability. Well, what happened? Iggy. That's what happened.

Apparently, the Bloc won't support the Lib-NDP coalition as long as Dion is the leader, but will support it if Michael Ignatieff is though. Shocking.

3) As a result, the Conservatives have backed down on removing public funding for political parties. I'm shocked that they backed down. But it looks like it doesn't matter. The Liberals are going to call for a non-confidence motion on Monday, supported by the NDP and Bloc.

To me, this looks like a massive power grab by one Michael Ignatieff, even though we just had an election that gave the Conservatives a stronger mandate, with the Liberals having one of their worst showings since confederation.

4) What's worst is that this coalition (Liberals 77 + NDP 37 = 110 < Conservatives 143) needs the party that wants to tear the country apart. Shameful and shocking.

If Governor General Michelle Jean does not grant the Liberal/NDP/(Bloc) coalition, then there's going to be an election. If that happens, look at voters giving the Conservatives a majority.

UPDATE: Prime Minister Harper has cancelled the opposition day and ways and means motion for another week.

"While we have been working on the economy, the opposition is working on
back room deal to reverse the results of the election," Harper said at a news
conference.

Harper appealed to Canadians to make their opinion on the matter known
to their MPs. "They want to take power, rather than earn it," Harper said of
the proposed coalition. "The opposition is in its right to bring down the
government, but (Liberal Leader)Stephane Dion does not have the right to take
power without an election."

Another nail in the coffin

Everyone should probably know by now that Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been trying to destroy the Liberal party or at least remove the "natural governing party" status it has enjoyed in being the most successful political party in world democratic history.

Whether taking on the Liberal-dominated senate, having snap elections, or limiting donations to parties, the latest move will further "unnaturalize" the Liberals while also sticking a fork in the Bloc Quebecois.

Obviously using the economic downturn as a catalyst, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced that the $1.75/vote taxpayer-funded amounts going to political party coffers will be completely revoked.

While all parties stand to lose millions, with the Conservatives losing the most, it's the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois who will be hurt most because they don't have nearly as many individual donors (who can donate up to $1100) as the Conservatives or NDP.

Here's what parties received from the public treasury last year and as a percentage of their total revenues.

• Conservatives: $10 million (37%)
• Liberals: $7.7 million (63%)
• NDP: $4.9 million (57%)
• Bloc Quebecois: $2.6 million (86%)
• Green Party: $1.8 million (65%)

I've always thought that it's outrageous for Canadian taxpayers to be funding a party that wants to tear up the country.

While it's only about $30 million in savings, if Canadians are going to have a hard time and will reign in their own spending, why they should fund political parties?

Now let's see if there are any Liberals who agree with this.

Ra Ra Ras Putin!

Oh those Russians. They don't like the number four.

To be ratified soon, whomever becomes the next Russian president after Medevevededevev (gee, I wonder who that'll be?) will now get to enjoy SIX year terms. Forget FOUR.

FOUR is cliche. FOUR is too short. SIX! AH AH AH!

Also, deputies in the Duma will sit for FIVE YEARS, not four.

Read more here.

Federal Liblead Race -- The Roommates and the Visitor

Many people know that Liberal MPs Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff were once college roommates. Funny that.

Monday night I was discussing with a friend about how I now think this federal Liberal leadership race is turning into a coronation for Bob Rae. How so?--by eliminating the competition before the race even starts and "taking over" the party, which Bob seems to have done using his old Powercorp/Demarais connections, etc.

The Quebec Liberal wing tried to put into the rules that candidates had to be debt-free from the last race. While it didn't get implemented, the idea was put out there and basically immediately knocked out those with debt. They also put in a $90,000 entry fee (yikes!) and are limiting spending to $1.5 million (which isn't much).

Both play well for Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff.

So the other day Martha Hall Finlay decided not to run. Gerard Kennedy today announced that he's not running either. Both have around $200k of debt. It's too bad (for Liberals). I think Gerard is the type of renewal guy they need and not having any women doesn't look good either.

Bob Rae, on the other hand, did no such thing (not noticeable anyway). He actively supported Dion, and even defended the Green Shift. Iggy, not so much.

We also know MPs Dominic LeBlanc and Bob Rae are running. Michael Ignatieff hasn't decided if he's running yet, but he probably will. I think there's no doubt that Iggy and Co. were undermining Dion throughout his leadership, the by-elections, and especially watching him in the House of Commons whenever Dion spoke. Iggy is relatively new to Canadian politics and doesn't have the same power connections that Rae has had for some time.

I have no idea who LeBlanc is and likely neither do a lot of Canadians. Ontarians certainly know who, Bob Rae, their former premier, is, and while the left like him, the centre and centre-right likely does not at all one bit. The hope for the Liberals in this sense is that they would try to unite the left without actual merger with the NDP and Green. This would require fear mongering and attacking Stephen Harper to no end in typical Liberal fashion. Bob Rae doesn't stand for much other than trying to come across as a happy politician but attacking opponents whenever possible. With Iggy it's different. It would be a battle for the centre and a debate of actual ideas, yet I'm sure attacks would be in there for sure.

If no other candidates besides these three enter, LeBlanc has no hope as there are no other lesser candidates to support him on subsequent ballots like Kennedy did with Dion to allow him to shoot up the middle between Iggy and Rae. Which means Iggy can't win.

I'd assume LeBlanc has been well tied into the Liberal family for some time, with his father Romeo as a past Governor General, meaning I'd guess he'd be convinced to support Rae on the 2nd ballot for a plum cabinet post. Or more likely is his friend Warren Kinsella convincing him to go Iggy.

However, I don't know the insides of the Liberal party all that well and if there is a genuine desire for actual "renewal" like the Democrats and Americans did by electing Barack Obama, then LeBlanc has a chance. But I don't that's what Liberals want... an unknown. So if that spirit is there then Ignatieff is the guy. He's well spoken and intelligent.

But I do know the outsides of the Liberal Party (as do many of us) and when they mean "renewal", that's Liberal-speak for "power at all costs", so that translates to Bob Rae.

But I wonder if Bob Rae was supporting Dion so actively to try and chum his way into the Liberal party. Maybe Ignatieff has had the actual reins on the party since his last race.

Regardless, as I mentioned, Dominic LeBlanc is the guy visiting those old college roommates and the king-maker. Who will be the first to offer him a beer?

US Election: Obamanation Prediction

Here's my final Electoral College prediction, which I think is pessimistic for Obama and optimistic for McCain.

Obama 311

McCain 227

And another Taser death...

Edmonton last week--Calgary this week.

The Canadian Press
CALGARY -- Calgary police say a man has died in hospital after officers used a Taser while arresting him on the weekend. Police say the dead man is Gordon Walker Bowe, 30, from Castlegar, B.C.

Bowe was rushed to hospital Saturday night in critical condition after
police responded to calls about a break-and-enter.

Officers found a man in a basement of a home and used a Taser to try to subdue him, but were unsuccessful.

Police say the man was eventually arrested, but went into medical distress while being assessed by paramedics.

The Alberta Serious Incident Response Team has taken over the investigation.

Addendum:
CBC has been keeping track of these deaths for the most part. Here's a map of the Taser-related deaths in Canada...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/map-tasers-canada/