Sign vandals

One thing I noticed in Edmonton... there are a lot of Conservative signs that were destroyed, moved, or broken, particularly Rahim Jaffer's signs in Edmonton-Strathcona and Laurie Hawn's in Edmonton-Centre. And I'm talking the big signs.

I noticed absolutely no NDP, Green, or Liberal signs treated the same way.

It'll make No Difference, Parlicularly when this stuff usually backfires.

Canadian Federalection 2008 - Typical Liberal last minute strategy

In the 2000 election, the Liberals poigned the thought of a Stockwell Day led Canadian Alliance government. They took Stock's cockiness and translated it as a beacon call to leftists to unite under the Liberals. It worked. It especially worked because the right was still divided.

This divide and conquer method is a sneaky trick in Canadian politics, one the Conservatives tried this election by painting Dion's carbon tax as THE issue, dividing the already divided Liberals even further and having those old left Liberal votes drip to the NDP, Greens, or Bloc.

The method didn't work so well in Quebec, where the drip went to the Bloc as the Conservatives failed to divide and conquer properly there by announcing changes to the Young Offenders Act to try 14 year olds violent offenders. While that policy shore up support in Southern Ontario and the West, that coupled with the arts movement in Montreal shuttered any big Quebec breakthrough. Too bad really.

Watch for British Columbia though, where the big vote split on the left will allow many Conservatives to "shoot up the middle" and win.

With the Conservatives at about 34% going into the weekend, they'll be shy of that majority by about 20 seats. Some say if they hit 38%, then it's possible, due to the pile of votes splits on the left.

And the Liberals know it. Which is why Dion, on the last day of the campaign, called for an end to vote splitting. This is the same strategy they used in 2000, but this time, they'll fall short.

But here's what I don't get.

Many of these "progressives" on the left, including soft NDP supporters call for a proportional representation (PR) system. Perhaps if you actually voted NDP and Green, more MPs from those parties would get elected and you'd have more of a say on the issue rather than being all "scared" about Harper and being coyed into voting Liberal--a party that doesn't support PR.

As well, the more folks that vote NDP and Green, the more money they get from the new election party finance laws... $1.75/vote to be exact.

The Liberals are broke, in debt, and Dion's still in about $700,000 of debt. They have no grassroots support so little money coming in. Their old big corporate donors can only give $1100 or so.

The NDP and Greens have run excellent campaigns with leaders saying smart, articulate things. The NDP particularly have had slick TV ads, and Jack Layton has been outstanding right from the first day. He is an effective MP and opposition leader--much more effective than Dion ever was this past session.

The Liberals won't win this election, so voting for them is a waste. I encourage all of my NDP and Green friends to for once vote for the party they actually WANT to vote for, not against, which is never a wasted strategy.

Heck, I did it in 1993, 1997, 2000 when I voted Reform/Canadian Alliance. I wanted a strong opposition and while I didn't agree with all of their policies, there were some major issues that I did agree with. I never thought they'd form government but I didn't ever vote Progressive Conservative either.

Canadian Federalection 2008 - Prediction - Slight Conservative Majority

My prediction from the beginning of the election still stands for the most part. I'm usually way, way off.

157 Conservatives
70 Liberals
45 Bloc
35 NDP
1 Ind
0 Green

But I actually think the Bloc will be still at around 50 and the NDP 40, putting the Conservatives at around 147. But yeah, my previous prediction still stands. It's more hopeful.

Don't forget to vote early and vote often! (I already voted at an advance poll.)

Canada Federalection 2008 - [insert colour] Shift

A lot has happened since my last post 6 days ago... the debates (including the Canadian ones..lol..), the U.S. bailout, and looming world economic recession.

Polls indicated that the Conservatives were teetering close to a majority if not there. The Liberals remain stagnant in the mid 20's, the NDP are edging close to that, and the Bloc has regained its earlier losses.

But with a week left, and a weak left (get it?), Harper is poised to continue on as prime minister.

So what's happened in a nutshell?

Gaffes
The old Harper, er..., John Howard speech from five years ago I think was spun well by the Liberals; the story had legs over a few days. The Conservative war room seem to be asleep in trying to point out heavily that Bob Rae and Dion have both plagiarized themselves. But all the parties have had candidates quit over some controversy. I don't think this has affected the national campaigns overall that much.

Debates
Duceppe won the French debate, Layton the English debate, while Dion improved and went beyond his very very low expectations, where Harper didn't wow anyone, and has remained calm, cool, and collected throughout it all... as a prime minister should do. Chretien did it in 1997.

Ads
The Liberals have gone to the old playbook in equating Harper with Bush. I think Canadians are really tired of this line and reeks of desperation from the Liberals. The Conservatives are coming out with another warm fuzzy one with a positive message, which will work and gain them a couple points.

Quebec
So let me get this straight... arts folks in Quebec are complaining about Harper's so-called cuts to arts and now putting their protest vote with the Bloc, a party that wants to separate from Canada and no longer receive ANYTHING from the federal government. Hmmm... yeah, makes a lot of sense to me. With 5000 people marching in Montreal today, you wonder why they're not working instead.

Economy
I don't think people are buying Dion's carbon tax approach and Harper needs to remind everyone of that, which he did in the debates. Today, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Harper both went on national TV to calm investors and mention the aspects of the Canadian economy that have controls on it and the foresight they had a year ago when they put in these measures such as requiring 5% down on a mortgage and eliminating 40 year amortizations. They need to continue to hammer this all week to ease people's worries.

Dion's plan to have meetings within the first 30 days will be too late and Jack's plans will also be too late, which is why the Conservatives need to explain that they already put in measures to protect the Canadian economy.

Summary
Most of all, if the Liberals get near the margin of error, then you can expect soft-NDP votes to go Liberal again. It's these folks who seem to determine how well the Liberals do by preventing some vote splitting. But luckily for the Conservatives, the NDP have put together an excellent campaign and Jack Layton's performance has been very good.

Noise Filtering
This week, we're going to see more campaign TV ads, spin, rhetoric, polls, and pundits than we've ever seen before. How Canadians filter the noise and soak up the one or two emotions they get will determine their vote.

I think people see a Conservative gov't as inevitable, and the only way Harper will get to the magical 155 seats is with a split left happening in 20 more ridings this time around. I think they've gained their lost seats in BC (+5), will still grab more in Ontario (+10) and double their seats in Quebec (+10) which puts them awfully close to a majority. If they hit 37.5%, they'll get the majority.

Therefore, I still stand behind my 157 seat prediction for the Conservatives with the Liberals around 75 and as a result, the Red Green Shift will have turned Blue.

Bob Rae giving talking points to Dion

I love ads that simply directly quote people... and with Pink Floyd to boot! (h/t Steve Janke).

Day 13 of the Federalection: Green Shift gets Shafted

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion said today that his Green Shift plan featuring a controversial carbon tax is not a major part of his election platform.

"You have said it was but never me," Dion told reporters.

His surprise declaration follows by a day campaign appearances in the Toronto area where he failed to mention it once in his speeches.

Dion released the Green Shift plan in June in Ottawa with great fanfare. It proposes to tax fossil fuels while cutting taxes for lower and middle income Canadians.

"I have always said it was an important policy for Canada. I strongly believe it would be good for Canada," he told reporters.

Dion said: “Okay, maybe I didn’t use the word `green shift’ ” but denied he was downplaying the policy.

It appears that the Conservatives continued bashing of Dion's Green Shift in TV ads and on the campaign trail, even so much so that Liberal MPs had a hard time selling it, that more people were calling it a carbon tax, Dion himself is putting the policy on the backburner (pun intended).

Will voters now say, "Oh, it's not an issue anymore, so I'm okay with the Liberal brand" or will they say, "What DO you stand for now, Mr. Dion?"

This is a major flip flop on Dion's part, and the Conservatives will likely come out with TV ads and run with this. Well they should anyway.

This could be a major turning point in the election if spun properly by Harper and Co. Just when polls showing the Liberals catching up again and Conservative support slipping--there's still three weeks left in this puppy, so a swing around with the Conservatives above 38% means they're in "m-word" territory.

I suspect Harper will get a 1-2% bump after the debate after he (hopefully) hammers Dion on his Green Shift shaft.

Day 12 of the Federalection - H vs. H, ep II

Haught vs. Naught Episode II - Election version

Double Naught - Conservative Agricultural Minister Gerry Ritz for his comments regarding the 12 terrible listeria deaths and if Liberal MP Wayne Easter was one of them. Funny? Yes, but because it was in bad taste at a very poor time ... like um... during an election, he was obviously smart to apologize immediately, but this story has a few days legs in the media. Conservatives will drop 1-2 points as a result and have no hope in PEI and perhaps other Maritime ridings of winning.

Naught - Conservatives. After a strong week, their lead is slipping in key ridings. The above comment won't help. But if they stay focused with key daily policy announcements and good fuzzy ads, a majority is still a possibility. I believe Harper will easily win the debate as everyone will gang up on him, but he being cool and calm, he will look ...well. .. cool and calm.

Haught - All parties for releasing policy platforms that truly define who they are. But the Greens and NDP are looking awfully similar (Bloc too). But as Warren Kinsella said, "campaigns are about emotions", so only if these platforms translate into positive warm fuzzy feelings about the future, then they translate into actual votes. But why does everyone but the Conservatives want to raise the GST? Even when they say they'll lower income taxes, I don't think anyone believes any of them.

Haught - Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer for hosting a party this Saturday. Looking forward to it. A good way to get people out to then motivate them to hammer some signs. Rahim's a great guy and stellar MP.

Haught - Two blogs that kicks ass: Warren Kinsella's Daily Musings, especially his "Warren At Arms Length" vlog, and Steve Janke's "Angry In The Great White North", who's attention to detail is amazing, how he's got Liberal MP Garth Turner on his toes, slams Dion whenever he gets the chance with hard cold facts, but how he finds the time is beyond me.

I'm now also pondering on adding some video to this blog using my old Canon 3.2Mp camera.

Day 8 of the Federalection - Another seat projection

Harris Decima seat projection - Sept. 14/08:

169 Conservatives
62 Liberals
46 Bloc Quebecois
30 New Democrats
1 Independent
0 Green

I think the Conservative and Bloc predictions are too high, and the NDP is too low. I still stand at 157 seats for the Conservatives, Bloc around 40, NDP around 35, Liberals around 80, and Greens 0.

But that is much different than this... which would translate into another minority.

CPAC-Nanos released Sept. 15/08:
37% Conservatives
31% Liberals
18% New Democrats
9% Greens
6% Bloc Quebecois

Don't forget that Liberal grassroots support is very soft, where Conservative is quite strong. Are the soft Liberals even going to vote or trickle through the NDP to the Greens? My guess is that voter turnout will be very low this election <60%. Conservatives who want a majority are going to vote.

The key for the Conservatives and Harper is to not peak too soon, which is why the campaigns on the ground aren't going full tilt. Heck, the Liberals don't even have enough candidates!

Day 5 of the Federalection - Seat Projections

Here's some seat projections from various sources:

CalgaryGrit has the following based on some serious statistical calculations:
Conservatives: 137.9 (95% CI from 132 to 144)
Liberals: 98.5 (95% CI from 93 to 104)
NDP: 28.8 (95% CI from 25 to 32)
Bloc: 42.0 (95% CI from 39 to 45)
Indepent: 0.8

Hill and Knowlton have a cool seat projector map tool you can play with as well as predictions from several polling companies:

C=Conservatives, L=Liberals, N=NDP, B=Bloc Quebecois, G=Green, I=Independent/Other

Harris-Decima (Sep 8):
C: 133
L: 100
N: 26
B: 46
G: 0
I: 3

Angus-Reid (Sep 11):
C: 152
L: 61
N: 44
B: 50
G: 0
I: 1

Ekos (Sep 11):
C: 143
L: 80
N: 39
B: 46
G: 0
I: 0

No majority gov'ts in any of the scenarios. I still think the Bloc and Liberals are going to lose seats and the Conservatives and NDP will gain. One independent seat in Quebec. So from above I think Harris-Decima are out to lunch and of Angus-Reid and Ekos, I'd like to say Angus but Ekos is the happy medium. I just don't see the Liberals keeping the seats they have, especially now with strong NDP and Green campaigns.

But campaigns matter and we'll see if voters look beyond the gaffes and style and simply to Harper's record, Dion's policies, and Jack's Obamaness.

Day 4 of the Federalection - Haught vs. Naught version

Hatrock's Haught vs. Naught is back. If you didn't know, it's a muse on CTV's Jane Taber's Who's Hot and Not feature, but it's my version.

So a quick NAUGHT: CTV Election 2008 "Racebook" website leader profile pictures. Could you have picked worse photos? Didn't think so.

HAUGHT: Green Party leader Elizabeth May for being included in the televised debates because Jack Layton and Stephen Harper changed their minds and she didn't give up.

HAUGHT: Jack Layton and Stephen Harper for changing their minds on this. I was on the fence on this one but the latest poll shows the Greens bleeding votes mostly from Liberals as a "catch all" alternative to the Liberals, so smart strategy. And have you seen Elizabeth May talk at a podium yet? You're in for a treat.

HAUGHT: Stephen Harper for ending the Afghanistan debate. We're pulling out in 2011. Next question.

HAUGHT(naught?): Stephen Harper's remarks that he'd rather be a fruit.

HAUGHT: Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty for staying neutral in this election.

NAUGHT: Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams and Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach for not staying neutral. Shut the f**k up!

NAUGHT: Has-been prime ministers Clark, Turner, Campbell, and Martin on promoting climate change solutions. Does anyone care? Next. (Nice try Dion?)

In America:

HAUGHT: McCain-Palin. Big jump in the polls as white women move to Palin and independents leaning McCain. Can Obama counteract?

HAUGHT: Democratic Senatorial candidate and comedian, Al Franken for clinching the nomination in MinnesOta.

NAUGHT: Joe Biden for his crafty implied comments regarding Gov. Sarah Palin special needs child. Obama, you'd be best to muzzle the guy, but don't say some didn't warn ya when you picked him.