Day 5 of the Federalection - Seat Projections

Here's some seat projections from various sources:

CalgaryGrit has the following based on some serious statistical calculations:
Conservatives: 137.9 (95% CI from 132 to 144)
Liberals: 98.5 (95% CI from 93 to 104)
NDP: 28.8 (95% CI from 25 to 32)
Bloc: 42.0 (95% CI from 39 to 45)
Indepent: 0.8

Hill and Knowlton have a cool seat projector map tool you can play with as well as predictions from several polling companies:

C=Conservatives, L=Liberals, N=NDP, B=Bloc Quebecois, G=Green, I=Independent/Other

Harris-Decima (Sep 8):
C: 133
L: 100
N: 26
B: 46
G: 0
I: 3

Angus-Reid (Sep 11):
C: 152
L: 61
N: 44
B: 50
G: 0
I: 1

Ekos (Sep 11):
C: 143
L: 80
N: 39
B: 46
G: 0
I: 0

No majority gov'ts in any of the scenarios. I still think the Bloc and Liberals are going to lose seats and the Conservatives and NDP will gain. One independent seat in Quebec. So from above I think Harris-Decima are out to lunch and of Angus-Reid and Ekos, I'd like to say Angus but Ekos is the happy medium. I just don't see the Liberals keeping the seats they have, especially now with strong NDP and Green campaigns.

But campaigns matter and we'll see if voters look beyond the gaffes and style and simply to Harper's record, Dion's policies, and Jack's Obamaness.