Alison Redford to be new Alberta premier

While at a wedding cocktail reception on Saturday, several friends kept asking me what the results were as I was glued to my Twitter feed on my phone.  As the results came in and they were at half the polls reporting, I said she was going to win due to the inability for Gary Mar to get passed 45% and that Redford would get two-thirds of Doug Horner's second ballot choices.  It was still close, and when Mar pulled ahead by 5-6%, he still couldn't penetrate even 45%, I was pretty sure she'd win at that point.  On Twitter, Dave Rutherford was the first out of the gate stating her victory based on his sources.


Final Tally
37,101 (51.11%) Redford
35,491 (48.89%) Mar

Well, I will admit that I voted for her and Horner 2nd.  I voted for her for three reasons.  I watched the debate on Wednesday and was impressed with her strength and felt of the three candidates, she would best represent Alberta, but maybe not ideologically.  Secondly, I didn't want Mar to win as his ethics are questionable, and thirdly, Redford is said to be a liberal-progressive, which splits the PCs and is a win for Danielle Smith, who'd I'd prefer as premier.  Now, a lot more conservatives potentially will leave the PCs for the Wildrose Party, but only if Smith and Co. can prove themselves as a viable alternative.

An indication of that is only 78,176 members turned out to vote Saturday, which was an increase from the first ballot vote two weeks prior, but it is a large decrease from the 144,000 that voted in 2006 which saw Ed Stelmach shoot up the middle to win.  That's a big vacuum.

Despite all that, Redford is a relative unknown to many conservatives and I believe Albertans for the most part, will give her a shot to see what she can and cannot do.  It will be difficult for the Wildrose to paint her in a bad light while the honeymoon is on, and I thought the press release from Danielle Smith congratulating Redford on her win while slamming her when she hasn't had a chance to govern yet was in bad form.

The fall session was to start October 25th, but Redford has postponed it, a budget, and a potential election until the spring.  The Wildrose is not happy with this, but while I took a tour of the Legislature building yesterday, the tour guide apologized for the state of the Assembly Chamber itself.  I took the picture below from the public gallery to show all the scaffolding they must use to change the 600 lightbulbs to energy-saving ones as they cannot fit a scissor-lift through the doors.  As well, they are painting.  I don't see them finishing and cleaning up by October 25th.  Whether that's the reason, I really don't know, but found it interesting and coincidental under the circumstances.

As we began our tour, media were on hand, waiting for someone, and I thought perhaps she would be there.  But alas, it was Raj Sherman, newly elected Alberta Liberal leader.

Even though I voted for her, this blog, and I'm sure many others of the conservative-bent, will watch her every move over the next while.  She'd be smart to introduce some conservative policies to keep that camp involved in her party, especially on dumbing-down or scrapping the Alberta Human Rights Commission, but her promise to restore $100 million to education for teachers within a couple weeks seems bold and decisive, but in reality, it seems like a bit of a stretch to accomplish.  If she does it, you'll note it is without any budgetary debate, which indicates to me, not much will really change with the way the PCs govern.

I remember just a week and a half ago when I saw her at an Edmonton downtown lounge sitting and having a conversation with a man, possibly an advisor.  I thought to go up to her and wish her luck, but I didn't, because who knew at that point she'd ever become our premier.

But she did.

(Photo courtesy of The Toronto Star)

Alberta PC leadership - 1st round

Saturday I sat at home debating whether to vote in this leadership race although I do not support the PC Party.  I ran some errands to fill in the day and drove by the Oliver Community League where the polling station was.  I parked and walked to the door and then had a strong feeling that I should turn around.  Then I said to myself, "You get to pick who you think would make the best premier."  So I entered and was quickly greeted by a volunteer.  I didn't have a $5 membership so I bought one in mostly quarters--coinage I'd never use and so I wouldn't waste a perfectly good $5 bill.

At that moment though I thought, "What are you doing? You can't stand this party and yet you have a membership now?"  Then the volunteer interrupted the thought and told me to take my membership and voting card to the desk and then to get a ballot.

I knew going in who'd I vote for.  Rick Orman--essentially the closest candidate to being an outsider in this race and a self-professed libertarian.  Unfortunately, his campaign never took hold

Why not Morton this time like last time for me?  I think most of us libertarian-conservative type folks had the same feeling about him.  As provincial treasurer, he saw the largest deficits in Alberta history.  To me, this simply shows a lack of leadership, and just following the party line.  Morton's biggest blunder was becoming treasurer in the first place instead of staying on the outside perhaps as it highlighted his "unconservativeness".  When a conservative stops being conservative, they lose support fast.  And in Ted's case, that's exactly what happened.

For Doug Griffiths, the relatively young MLA was smart to enter this race to keep his profile up.

So now onto the top three, if it's really even that; it's more like top one with scraps now.

With Mr. Integrity Gary Mar at 41%, sweeping Edmonton, will the remaining Redford and Horner campaigns abandon him as their second choice?  Will Horner garner the swift support of new Edmonton voters and Northern Alberta like Ed Stelmach did?  Ed had 15% and won so it's not out of the question but that was because Jim Dinning and Ted Morton were polarized enough and both from Southern Alberta to invigorate Edmonton and Northern folks to buy a membership and mark an "X" for Steady Eddie.

While most true conservatives and libertarians have already abandoned the PCs, where will those remaining park their support on the run off vote October 1st?  My bet is on Alison Redford or no one.

So now if there ever was a clear choice for libertarian-conservatives, it's certainly with Danielle Smith and the Wildrose Party.  That is, if the party gets better organized and more media attention.  As I said to the National Post last month, it's not ready for prime-time governing, but a successful stint as official opposition, and being able to raise some real cash, the possibility of governing in say 2015 is not out of the question, if not as a serious challenge to the PCs.

Forty years with the same party in power is not healthy for any democracy.  I urge Albertans to vote for anyone but the PCs in the upcoming election.  Even if you're a soft PC supporter, you'll be doing the province a favour.

In the meantime, I'll be debating whether I'll be voting in the final run-off vote on October 1st. 

Alberta PC leadership race - Southpark version

It's been a while since I've done this, but here we go!

Doug Griffiths

 Rick Orman

 Doug Horner

 Alison Redford

 

Gary Mar  

 Ted Morton

  

 Wildrose leader Danielle Smith, hoping Albertans choose none of the above

Premier Ed Stelmach on his way out...