Day 3 of the Federalection

Some thoughts on Day Three...

I'm looking forward to some policies, but now we have dominating the media...

- Dion calling Harper a liar on Harper stating that Dion would raise the GST (which he DID say) especially when Dion said he wouldn't go negative. Bad taste.

- Conservative website notaleader having comic with a bird defecating on Dion. Very bad taste. Harper agrees. Story will have one more day of traction. But here's a page where you can make your own Dion attack ad. It's kind of fun actually.

- Conservative attacks on Dion's Green Shift Carbon Tax plan really hitting home in BC where they already have a carbon tax. A few more days of this and Canadians will want to hear something else but they don't want to talk about the carbon tax because it sounds like a new tax. Harper saying any politician that claims a new tax would be revenue neutral is misleading the public. He's right.

- Liberal plane an old junket from 1979 is a big polluter. Dion says they contributed carbon offsets to a green technology company that's only built a windmill back in 2001. Story will die in 1-2 more days.

- Green Leader Elizabeth May not allowed in the televised debates. I think most people want her on but strategically, a smart move by Layton and Harper to not want her on. Issue won't die.

- It's day two and I'm already tired of Harper's "family man" campaigning. Looking forward to some campaign policy planks.

- Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe. BORING. He used to not be boring.

- Jack Layton still being exciting .. riding Obama's wave, not mentioning the Liberals, attacking Harper on policy

- Stephane Dion counteracting Conservative attacks on his leadership with online ads of him in the outdoors doing outdoorsy things. Good plan. Also admits that he has a hearing problem and is the reason why he has difficulty speaking English with a clear accent because "English has a 'music' to it that I find difficult to hear". Humbling.

But two policies announcement did come out today:

- Conservatives will lower the diesel tax by two cents. Not a real kitchen table policy. Translates with truckers but will trucking companies pass that savings on to consumers? Unlikely.

- Liberals will DOUBLE the child care tax credit from $1200 to $2400 per year per child. THERE YOU GO! Taking Conservative policy and making it better right at the kitchen table.

Winner today... Liberal Leader Stephane Dion. He's been taking punches and fighting back with good policy and a humble nature.

But is it simply too late to shake the weak leader image portrayed in Conservative attack ads? Time is running out.

My prediction still stands at a slight Conservative majority, due to Bloc and Liberal loses in Quebec, Ontario, and BC with NDP gains also causing vote splitting on the left.

The Conservatives under Harper with three parties on the left now remind me of the Liberals under Chretien with two parties on the right from 1993 - 2004.

Leader Kick-Off Speeches and Campaign Ads

Well after day one of the Canadian federal election here are my first impressions.

Stephane Dion (Liberal) -- Very poor speech. It's still difficult to understand what he's saying sometimes. Mentions their "exciting" platform, but doesn't specifically mention his Green Shift carbon tax plan. No ads that I've seen, not all candidates have been nominated, lack of money, and no campaign plane! Good start! (D-)

Jack Layton (NDP) -- Very good inspiring speech and very good campaign ad. He seems upbeat, optimistic, specific, and even acting like a consumer advocate which is new and refreshing. Jack doesn't mention the Liberals at all, just Harper and the Conservatives. With a backdrop of the Parliament where he spoke across the river in Gatineau, it was an excellent stint. His French is much better than Dion's English, that's for sure. Hints at Obama and "change" and "hope" and all that good stuff. Says he's shooting to be prime minister. I think this is excellent strategy... making it a choice between Conservative policy or NDP values. He then takes a balsy move and gets on the NDP airplane to Harper's riding in Calgary to give another excellent speech. His supporters seem very enthusiastic. The NDP have an opportunity to win more seats in Ontario and Quebec. In BC, the Conservatives are doing well again and will gain seats where the NDP may lose. Excellent campaign ad against Harper. If Jack continues on like this, he can solidify those soft-NDP supporters who are often weary of a Conservative majority and vote Liberal. If I was a lefty in Canada, I'd be voting NDP for sure. (B+)

Elizabeth May (Greens) -- Good speech. Very fiery but received little to no media coverage. But she's annoying to me. I think she's too lefty for what I thought the Greens were--libertarian, fiscal conservative, low tax, environmentalists. Now it just seems they're about the environment. I still don't think they're going to win any seats but will come close in many ridings. (B-)

Gilles Duceppe (Bloc) -- Boring. Says to prevent a Harper majority to vote Bloc. Duh. I like Gilles Duceppe, but I think Quebeckers are tired of him, as they're tired of the separatist thing. Conservatives are doing well there because of their open federalism policy which to me is holding the country together better than Trudeau/Chretien Liberal centralization. (C-)

Stephen Harper (Conservative) -- Relaxed, but a bit boring. He admitted that he's still learning "your language (French)" which came across as humbling in an odd way. He outlined the difference in choice on taking a risk or a "steady course". The Conservatives are simply going to coast through the election on Harper's leadership. I wonder if that's risky by also not highlighting the rest of the team. Paul Martin did the same and look where it got him. (C+)

Voter Turnout... I think this will be worse than last election and less than 60% will vote. People just don't seem to care as much.

But I think there's a lot of soft conservatives/former liberals out there who are pleased with Harper's leadership and are tired of these minority parliaments and get more done.

But I'll be honest, why I'd never vote NDP from an ideological stand-point, I'm inspired to follow Jack Layton and his style, speeches, and see how it resonates with voters and translates into votes. It's certainly on day one, the most exciting campaign. But why am I doing this? Because the better the NDP do, the worse the Liberals do, and the NDP are a much more effective opposition, which a good democracy needs, and I'm sure that's also why Stephen Harper is so relaxed and humble.

Elections in North America

And a way we go!

Dion vs. Harper vs. Layton vs. Duceppe vs. May

McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Biden

Obama Biden
O_ama bi __den
Osama bin Laden

Neat eh? Sorry, just playin' around and don't read into it. Please! This election will Palin comparison to others where many were just Biden there time. Oh, stop the insanity!

Everyone knew the American election was coming, but did anyone see a Canadian one? I seriously thought Harper was going to ride the minority train until October 2009 when his own fixed election date law set it.

Speaking of this fixed election date law, I saw MP Pierre Polivere on TV state that the law allows the prime minister to call an election. Sorry, but I'm confused. Did the law already essentially just move up the five year limit to four years? Does it only apply with majority governments?

Anyway, I'm going to make some early predictions and analysis in both N.A. elections:


U.S.: Obama/Biden by a nose and a work buddy owes me lunch.

It comes down to this... Can the Republicans mobilize and get their base excited about John McCain and scared about Obama the way Karl Rove did for Bush? I call it "tapping into the xenophobe". I don't think this will happen as much and I think the Dems have a much better and inspiring candidate in Obama than they did with John Kerry. The Dems need to remind Americans about the staggering debt under Bush and pin McCain to that same policy (which they have).

I watched Gov. Sarah Palin's speech last night. She's feisty alright. I'm not a big fan of the Democratic spin against her, especially on her experience--kind of hypocritical when Obama doesn't have much at an executive level. I think the Dems are actually a bit scared of her. But what I do know is the best speech came from former Senator and actor, Fred Thomspon and his emotional story telling and introduction of John McCain.

America's economy and foreign debt is staggering. Each American owes about $35,000 to pay off their $10 trillion debt where in Canada... it's $14. Fourteen dollars.

There's no doubt that the manufacturing sector in Canada is hurting because of loss of exports to the weakened American economy, but other sectors are doing pretty well.


Canadia: Harper/Conservative majority by a nose.

I say this because the Conservatives are in a much better position with a high approval rating on Harper's leadership than they were going into the 2006 election. They will gain in BC, Ontario, and Quebec and this will put the ball just over the crossbar. The allegations against the Conservatives on the "In and Out Scandal" and the "Chuck Cadman Affair" just haven't stuck.

The Liberals under Dion have been weakened with a lack of decisiveness, a confusing tax policy, no grassroots, and a lack of cash on hand. So much so that they're still paying down debts from the leadership race.

The NDP will gain slightly with some actual sound policies and lefties liking Layton much more than Dion. The only thing that might prevent this is the usual soft-NDP strategic voter who'll be asking two questions:

1) Are the Conservatives on the verge of a majority and if so, can I stop it by voting Liberal?

2) If I vote Liberal, will it actually make a difference because they're not that strong, so would parking my vote with the NDP give them more voice in parliament?

Jack Layton needs to hit home that the Liberals have been a terrible opposition party (probably one of the worst in history) and if "you truly care about working families then stick with us because we actually oppose the Conservative gov't". Keep hitting that home Jack!

The Bloc will be weakened in Quebec due to their tiredness and bordem of Duceppe opening it up for the NDP and Conservatives.

So there.

Joe Biden for Veep!

As a libertarian conservative Canadian who is a fan of Obama (not that I don't dislike McCain), I was hoping he'd choose Biden.

Biden is to the right of Obama, but left of McCain.

I think Biden is "biden" his words when he said that Obama was unfit in that debate and the McCain campaign did an excellent job in pointing that out with the TV ad. Perfect actually.

But I also think Biden's been mighty impressed with how well Obama's campaign is run. I'm not sure if Biden will fit into the dynamic campaign as much as a lesser known veep choice, but I think he can tow the line.

Overall, I think Americans aren't choosing the lesser of two evils here but could certainly live with either candidate as president.

The Iraq debate is pretty much over as it appears US troops, for the most part, will be out of there in a few years anyway.

Obama choice in Biden really comes down to who can best serve as president if need be, and Joe Biden has the foreign policy know-how and experience to step in better than most.

I watched Biden closely over his run for the candidacy and was impressed with his opinions on Iraq and the whole region how he recognizes that there are essentially three nations within Iraq, caused by the British drawing odd borders for countries like that, Jordan, and Syria.

Anyway, the issue now is similar to 1992... "It's the economy stupid" and McCain has admitted that he doesn't know much about economics.

With a 7 trillion dollar debt, rumours of defaulting on that, millions of lost jobs, housing credit crisis, and a bloated gov't, the Bush hangover has begun.

It still comes down to which economic ideology and plan will the American people buy into this time?

Ra Ra Ras Putin at it again

Can anyone name the prime minister who was under former Russian president Vladimir (Ras) Putin?

Can anyone name the current Russian president? Well it's not Putin. He's now the prime minister, but is certainly still acting like a president.

A derranged one nonetheless.

Putin is accusing the U.S. of orchestrating the Georgian conflict in Ossetia. WHAT?

I've said it for years to watch out for this guy, a former KGB officer.

Chechnya, Georgia, and now which former Soviet state is next on the list? Maybe not "next" but "always" on the list. And that's my grandfather's home country of Ukraine.

Beheading

By now, you've probably heard of last night's incredibly horrible and unbelievable stabbing and beheading on a Greyhound bus going from Edmonton to Winnipeg. Being from downtown Edmonton where I live, work, and play, I can actually see the Greyhound station from my window, which is only a couple blocks from my office. Which means, this deranged lunatic was walking amongst us and me yesterday.

We're talking about it in the office and either the murderer is completely insane, was on drugs (although people said he was normal during a bus stop break), or it was a gang hit. Hits are usually quick aren't they? Or is this trying to send a message to rivals? What would possess anyone to stab someone who was sleeping on a bus 70 times all over and behead them. It's totally barbaric.

I think the nation is in massive shock right now, let alone what the other passengers and bus driver must be going through.

There's been a string of absolutely crazy crimes happening around here this past week. Flashers, rapes, setting pets on fire, arsons, break and enters, murders, ... like what's going on here? Is there some new goofy drug in town?

5 provinces not 3 or 1

The above historical map taken from here shows a very different Western Canada divided into five provinces, Athabasca, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Assiniboia, and Manitoba, with the NWT Keewatin district taking what is now Northern Manitoba and Northwest Ontario. It was ultimately then Liberal Prime Minister Wilfred Laurier's idea to carve them vertically, similar to British Columbia, into three basically equal sized provinces. There was even a proposal to have British Columbia grab Alberta. Of course, the other big proposal was from Frederick Haultain, Premier of the NWT, whose name rests on a building north of the Alberta Legislature, to have one big province called Buffalo to compete with big provinces like Quebec and Ontario. But Laurier wouldn't have it.

It's interesting to think of what could've been and to note that the Athabasca in the above map would be a very rich province being that it's where the oil sands are.

But I also wonder if Canada were carved up more like the United States, with smaller geographical provinces, would they get treated as equals in the senate, unlike it is now in Canada. I still don't think Liberals respect the West, with their lack of leadership on senate reform, the national energy program, and now this dumb Green Shift idea from now Liberal "leader" Stephane Dion which will basically transfer even more money from the West to the East.

Big Brother E-Town

Well, to think they're going to solve problems, the brilliant city is now installing security cameras at Jasper Avenue and 109 Street.

They tried the same bloody thing on Whyte Avenue years ago, yet someone was still stabbed--right next to the light post which had a camera on it.

And of course a local bar owner is going to cooperate. What's he supposed to say?

Mike Sainchuk, co-owner of several bars in the area, said he supported the pilot project..

"I think it's great. We're a huge proponent of the cameras coming downtown," he said.

Sainchuk uses cameras both inside and outside his bars.

"People know there's cameras in here. Nobody wants to be the guy that next day that has his face stuck on camera, doing something dumb, so they work. They work great," he said.

So Mike if it works so great, then why do problems still persist? Why would they need to put more cameras near your establishments even though you have cameras? Didn't thwart a friend of mine from being beaten to a pulp by some thugs behind your bar just because he's gay. Where was security? What about the cameras? Did they catch the guys? Um... no.

People. People. People. Thinking that more robocops will help enforce anything is nuts and dangerous. Why aren't we simply using more actual real police.

Since we've had more police on Whyte Avenue, reports of problems have dropped.

And let's take Las Vegas for example. You don't see too many cops around on the strip. Why? Well yes because there's tonnes of surveillance outside and inside the hotels and casinos. But these are actually manned, plus the countless pit bosses, and plain clothes security guys all over the place. PLUS the fact that these are PRIVATE establishments.

The gov't has no business or right to put cameras outside to monitor your actions despite whether it's a trial project, only used at certain times, whatever.

And I never buy the argument that, "Well, if you're not doing anything illegal, then there's nothing to worry about". Watch that slippery slope there! Who knows what's next. Regulating drink prices? Oh wait...

Forget what I said about happy

Premier Ed Stelmach's Conservatives are setting minimum prices of $2.75 for a 12-ounce bottle of beer, or an ounce of spirits or liqueurs; and $1.75 for a five-ounce glass of wine. Under the new rules, happy hour -- when drinks are often sold below the regular price -- must end by 8 p. m. and cannot offer drinks at prices below the new minimums. Limits also will be placed on the size and number of last call drinks. "There's concern with the rising violence in and around drinking establishments," said Fred Lindsay, the Minister responsible for the liquor commission.

Well Fred, so what happens when the violence and fights continue? Because they will. Then what? Raise them even more?

Drug pushers and gang members who often cause violence could care less about this.

And what about the bars that have low drink prices for their regular patrons to enjoy but have never had an altercation as a result? Why is the government meddling in private business like this and setting prices?

I couldn't be more angry with the PC government in Alberta and not happy at all with Ed. This has to be one of the stupidest laws I've ever seen in my lifetime.

You know what's next? Raising the minimum drinking age to 19 or 21. Just you watch.

Come on get happy! or Happy happy joy joy!

Canadians are gettin' happier.

Yesterday was Canada Day (formerly known as Dominion Day) and I think Canadians are also getting more proud of their country. I know I am. Our military makes me proud. Very proud. Our culture, where we take the best of the UK and the US, whether music, comedy, arts, makes me proud.

And I especially enjoy the freedoms we have. Here's the key find:

"The results clearly show that the happiest societies are those that allow people the freedom to choose how to live their lives," University of Michigan political scientist Ronald Inglehart said in a press release.

You can't find a better endorsement of libertarianism than that. While it seems the gov'ts at every level intrude into our lives more and more with useless laws and the like, it's still not all that bad. We really do have it pretty darn good up here.

The more and more I travel in the U.S., the more and more proud I am to be Canadian.

So in the mortal words of Stephen Colbert ... "I Am [Canada] and So Can You!"