Democratic Race post Penn.

With 99% of the precincts reporting in the Pennsylvania democratic primary, 55% for Hillary and 45% for Obama, with 158 regular pledged delegates up for grabs, and after all the wait and hoopla, Hillary really only put a 16 delegate dent into Obama's lead. Big frickin' deal.

RECAP...

[Before Penn. Regular] + [Before Penn. Super] + [Regular Penn. Delegates] = [Current Total]

Hillary:
1254 + 254 + 87 = 1595

Obama:
1416 + 230 + 71 = 1717 (+122)

The question over the next couple weeks before the May 6th Indiana and North Carolina primaries is do the superdelegates believe that Obama can beat McCain?

I would say so. Not only did Obama cut into Hillary's 20-30 point lead in Pennsylvania, but he has been able to cut into Hillary's superdelegate lead big time by gaining over 85% of them in the past couple months.

Superdelegates are being cautious.

After the May 6th primaries, I predict this race is over because the remaining 312 superdelegates will migrate to Obama when he wins North Carolina and stays within 5 points in Indiana leaving little chance for Hillary to win.

I think the Democratic party won't include the missed Florida and Michigan primaries unless the race is very, very tight, but by that time, will the candidates have any money left?

MLK

"...thank God Almighty..."

United North America? Why?

I remember watching a TV mini-series on Benedict Arnold when he led the attacks during the Invasion of Canada and Battle of Quebec. He was shot in the leg and he supposedly kept the bullet throughout his life. The program depicted to me that because of this one bullet, Canada didn't fall into the hands of the Americans.

Today, I stumbled upon a website of a non-profit group dedicated to the unification of Canada and the U.S.

http://www.unitednorthamerica.org/

Then there's also this blog. Or just search this for other N.A. Unionist websites. And this idea.

If you asked me several years ago when the Liberals were running this country, I was seriously considering the benefits of a North American Union. But we now have a Stephen Harper-led Conservative government that's doing a pretty good job of securing our sovereignty, especially in the North, and from the Americans, who believe the Northwest Passage is international waters--which is most certainly is not.

But let me further explain to you my reasoning as to why there should NOT be a North American Union and why this would not benefit Canada. I believe the U.S. would benefit much more from this. All that said, in knowing history, no empire lasts forever and I do believe in the distant future that a North American Union is inevitable in order to compete with Europe, India, and especially China. But perhaps we can stave it off for as long as possible.

As some of you know, I travel in the U.S. for work quite often and have been to Seattle, Vegas, California, Kansas, Chicago, Ohio, and Virginia/DC. I've met lots of Americans and many are dear, dear friends of mine--truly wonderful people. That said, many other Americans I've met are unknowingly ignorant of Canada. I could go on about all the cute things they say about Canadians, but let's move on...

Here's WHY Canada should NOT join the US to form a Union.

• Compared to the U.S., Canada's natural and oil resources are so vast, they will sustain our energy needs for a long time. I actually tell Americans that they invaded the wrong country.
  
  
• Would Canadians then be mired in the Iraq war? Who's next, Iran?
  
  
• On defense, Canada and the U.S. mutually already use the Distant Early Warning (DEW) system and NORAD to monitor missile attacks. That said, it is a little known fact that Canadian troops are some of the best trained in the world, especially in regards to fighter pilots and snipers.
  
  
• The current U.S. economy, with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, trade-deficit, massive government deficit and debt (mostly owed to Chinese banks), and weak dollar aren't exactly as appealling as the healthy provincial economies, rising house prices, oil revenues, trade-surplus, lowered debt to GDP ratio, and strengthening dollar. Yes it's true that Canada relies heavily upon trade with the U.S.
  
  
• I'd also guess that due to the weather, many Canadians would flock to the warmer climates during winter, badly hurting tourism and local economies in Canada.
  
  
• The Canadian education system and gov't funding for it is superior to that of the U.S.
  
  
• Federal income taxes are actually LOWER in Canada than in the U.S. The difference is with each individual state compared to provincial taxes.
  
  
• On arts and culture, I believe there are vast differences. I'm a firm believer that Canadian comedians, musicians, and actors, per capita, are much, much, much funnier, more talented, and more creative than Americans. Canadian arts and culture has continued to blend the best aspects of British and American ideas into a new and fresh style that I find most appealling.
  
  
• Would a new union then make each province a state? There are vast differences between the federal-provincial and federal-state relationships that would be difficult to negotiate. Would Prince Edward Island, with a population the size of Topeka, Kansas really get two senators, or would some provinces have to get together with others?
  
  
• Internationally, Canada is distinct from the U.S. Always has been. Canadian soldiers in WWI and WWII really put Canada on the map in terms of respect with the liberation of our European allies.
  
  
• Wouldn't a union be then seen as a greater threat to China? What economic power that China already has over the U.S. then influence the entire N.A. Union?
  
  
• Would Canadians accept the U.S. constitution and their stance on gun rights, the Bill of Rights compared with
  
  
• What about the legal system? Would U.S. precedent dominate over our British/Canadian common law system?
  
  
• Would Quebec continue to be as independent on several issues within such a union? Then why couldn't new Canadian states?
  
  
• Beer, beef, and hockey. I just had to say it. There's nothing better.
  

Overall, it seems that those touting a North American Union would see the U.S. totally dominate over Canadian history and tradition, essentially erasing whatever Canadians have fought for for their OWN country. The Russians tried to do this with Ukraine (and continue to do so). The English tried to do this with Scotland (although they have a union of their own now). There are numerous examples. But while the British under Wolfe did defeat the French under Montcalm at the battle on the Plains of Abraham in 1759, French culture is still preserved in Quebec and other parts of Canada to this day.

Most of all, mutual competition is a good thing as it's human nature to compete and make things better than the next guy. It's how we evolve. Monopolies aren't good, whether it's corporate or governmental, or we all just become thoughtless drones dictated by unaccountable bureaucrats, agencies, and executives, and democracy fades.

So let's say, for example, that a Union was negotiated between our leaders, or let's say that it's been happening for years already, but coming to head. I really don't think Americans would mind it at all, but how much would Canadians oppose such a deal? Would there be protests? Definitely. Would Canadians rise up militarily?

Let me ask you fellow Canadians... Is Canada still worth fighting for?

What if the U.S., a la Canadian Bacon invaded Canada? With 90% of the Canadian population living within 100 miles of the border, would we be able to pull their jerseys over the Americans' heads and give 'em a hockey wollop, stave off attacks in snow bunkers for days on end, while our world renowned fighter pilots and snipers pick the invaders off one by one?

Or will one bullet in the leg of an American general do?

Democratic Race

I did some number crunching on the confusing Democratic race. Even giving Clinton a 54-46% lead on the remaining regular delegates and 60-40% on superdelegates, it works out to something like this... an Obama win.

	State	Del. Count	Clinton	Obama	diff	Clinton	Obama
22-Apr	Penn	158	95	63	32	60%	40%
3-May	Guam	4	2	2	0	50%	50%
6-May	Indiana	72	40	32	8	55%	45%
6-May	NC	115	54	61	-7	47%	53%
13-May	WV	28	13	15	-2	47%	53%
20-May	Kentucky	51	31	20	11	60%	40%
20-May	Oregon	52	22	30	-8	42%	58%
3-Jun	Montana	16	7	9	-2	42%	58%
3-Jun	SD	15	6	9	-3	42%	58%
7-Jun	Puerto Rico	55	33	22	11	60%	40%
	Total Del	566	303	263	40	54%	46%
	Remaining Super	350	210	140	70	60%	40.0%
	Total All		513	403	110
	So far (incl. Super)		1486	1625	-139
	Grand Total		1999	2028	-29

Candidate needs 2024 delegates to win.

My father said it best...

I haven't made many comments on the Canadian federal political scene in a while. Many Blogging Tories are already doing a good job of pointing out the foibles of Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party of Canada--their so-called opposition to the recent budget, the Afghanistan mission extension vote, and the omnibus crime bill (which finally passed in the Liberal-dominated Senate), among other things.

NDP leader Jack Layton even had some fun with putting forward five non-confidence motions, which, in order to pass and call an election, would require the Liberals to vote in favour of them.

But did the Liberals vote at all? Most didn't even show up for any of the votes. They let the budget pass, the Afghan mission to continue, crime bill now law, and still apparently have confidence in the government.

With the way things continue, I don't think they'll be an election until October 2009, which is a for-sure because Prime Minister Stephen Harper introduced and passed fixed election dates a while back.

To sum this all up... my father said it best..

"Harper's got the opposition spinning around so much they don't know what's going on!"

How very true.

Barack Obama's speech in Philadelphia

Let me tell you, being in Virginia and DC for the most part of this year has been somewhat inspirational from a political stand-point. A couple weeks ago, this Canadian libertarian-conservative attended a fun Barack Obama primary viewing party in Alexandria. You can't but help be caught up in his campaign and how he has conducted himself.

Today, I stumbled upon this speech by Senator Obama. With all the media pulling apart every ounce of racism in this presidential nomination race, there appears to be that single ray of hope emanating from his heart.

Video here..


Excerpt...

This is where we are right now. It’s a racial stalemate we’ve been stuck in for years. Contrary to the claims of some of my critics, black and white, I have never been so naïve as to believe that we can get beyond our racial divisions in a single election cycle, or with a single candidacy – particularly a candidacy as imperfect as my own.

But I have asserted a firm conviction – a conviction rooted in my faith in God and my faith in the American people – that working together we can move beyond some of our old racial wounds, and that in fact we have no choice if we are to continue on the path of a more perfect union.

For the African-American community, that path means embracing the burdens of our past without becoming victims of our past. It means continuing to insist on a full measure of justice in every aspect of American life. But it also means binding our particular grievances – for better health care, and better schools, and better jobs - to the larger aspirations of all Americans -- the white woman struggling to break the glass ceiling, the white man who's been laid off, the immigrant trying to feed his family. And it means taking full responsibility for own lives – by demanding more from our fathers, and spending more time with our children, and reading to them, and teaching them that while they may face challenges and discrimination in their own lives, they must never succumb to despair or cynicism; they must always believe that they can write their own destiny.

Ironically, this quintessentially American – and yes, conservative – notion of self-help found frequent expression in Reverend Wright’s sermons. But what my former pastor too often failed to understand is that embarking on a program of self-help also requires a belief that society can change.

The profound mistake of Reverend Wright’s sermons is not that he spoke about racism in our society. It’s that he spoke as if our society was static; as if no progress has been made; as if this country – a country that has made it possible for one of his own members to run for the highest office in the land and build a coalition of white and black; Latino and Asian, rich and poor, young and old -- is still irrevocably bound to a tragic past. But what we know -- what we have seen – is that America can change. That is true genius of this nation. What we have already achieved gives us hope – the audacity to hope – for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

In the white community, the path to a more perfect union means acknowledging that what ails the African-American community does not just exist in the minds of black people; that the legacy of discrimination - and current incidents of discrimination, while less overt than in the past - are real and must be addressed. Not just with words, but with deeds – by investing in our schools and our communities; by enforcing our civil rights laws and ensuring fairness in our criminal justice system; by providing this generation with ladders of opportunity that were unavailable for previous generations. It requires all Americans to realize that your dreams do not have to come at the expense of my dreams; that investing in the health, welfare, and education of black and brown and white children will ultimately help all of America prosper.

In the end, then, what is called for is nothing more, and nothing less, than what all the world’s great religions demand – that we do unto others as we would have them do unto us. Let us be our brother’s keeper, Scripture tells us. Let us be our sister’s keeper. Let us find that common stake we all have in one another, and let our politics reflect that spirit as well.

For we have a choice in this country. We can accept a politics that breeds division, and conflict, and cynicism. We can tackle race only as spectacle – as we did in the OJ trial – or in the wake of tragedy, as we did in the aftermath of Katrina - or as fodder for the nightly news. We can play Reverend Wright’s sermons on every channel, every day and talk about them from now until the election, and make the only question in this campaign whether or not the American people think that I somehow believe or sympathize with his most offensive words. We can pounce on some gaffe by a Hillary supporter as evidence that she’s playing the race card, or we can speculate on whether white men will all flock to John McCain in the general election regardless of his policies.

We can do that.

But if we do, I can tell you that in the next election, we’ll be talking about some other distraction. And then another one. And then another one. And nothing will change.

That is one option. Or, at this moment, in this election, we can come together and say, “Not this time.” This time we want to talk about the crumbling schools that are stealing the future of black children and white children and Asian children and Hispanic children and Native American children. This time we want to reject the cynicism that tells us that these kids can’t learn; that those kids who don’t look like us are somebody else’s problem. The children of America are not those kids, they are our kids, and we will not let them fall behind in a 21st century economy. Not this time.

h/t Cosmic Variance
Photo acknowledgement.

Alberta Election 2008 prediction

I voted in an advance poll on March 1st as I'm in Alexandria/DC for the next few weeks and would miss voting on March 3rd. Knowing which person to put an X to was a difficult decision for me. I looked at all the party policies, noted the candidates running for MLA in my riding, thought about who I wanted as premier, and a new thought I had regarding the disparaging anti-Ed campaign going on.

I don't agree with several major Alberta Liberal policies regarding reregulation of power, economy-killing environmental policies, and vast spending promises. I do like some of the fiscal policy, as far as saving for the future, but they don't get specific on tax policy. Kevin Taft is too left for me--not something I think truly represents Alberta. In my riding of Edmonton-Centre, Liberal Laurie Blakeman has been the MLA for many years and her socialist husband, Ben Henderson, is now the city councilor for the same area. How convenient! I think she's a good MLA, but I don't agree with her party's policies.

The Wildrose Alliance has many policies which I agree with, but being that it's a renamed party, I also question the internal politics of that party and the motives of Link Byfeld who started the Wildrose Party then merged it. What was the point? I voted for the Alberta Alliance last election as they had a credible candidate (who's now an Edmonton city councilor), but this year's candidate running in my riding does not appear to have the experience or any visible campaign whatsoever.

Now the Alberta PCs have been in power for 37 years and is on its fourth leader/premier. There has certainly been stark differences between each of them in personality and management style.

So what's changed since Ed Stelmach took the leadership and premiership? I think he's still cleaning up a lot of the mess left behind by Ralph Klein since the last election. There's a lot of ads attacking Ed about having no plan. Well, I think it was Ralph who had no plan last election and that's why I walked out of his campaign kick-off rally. Since Ed's been in, the oil royalties were redone, road projects have started (although still too slow), and there's probably other internal things that are being done differently. Bill Donohue is the PC candidate with an good record in volunteer and public life and I've met him. I don't think he's going to win as Laurie Blakeman is more known in the community.

But the disparaging thing I hinted at was an apparent anti-Ed sentiment emanating from Calgary. Anti-Ed Stelmach and anti-Edmonton. It started right when he won the leadership. I really think now that Ralph is no longer batting for Calgary, Calgarians will punish the PC party and I think some in the business community there is behind some of this.

So I found myself behind the voting booth and placed an X next to Bill Donohue for the Progressive Conservatives.

So now the prediction background...

Party standings at 2004 election (dissolution):
62 (60) PC
16 Liberal
4 NDP
1 Independent
1 vacant

I think the stronger Liberal campaign and weak NDP campaign will cause the Liberals to pick up a few more seats, possibly in Calgary where unknown weak PC candidates are. But I think the PCs might pick up Liberal seats in Edmonton now with some Liberal/NDP vote splitting and that Ed is premier in a Greater Edmonton-area riding getting the conservative vote out.

But the barrage of anti-Ed TV ads will have an effect on people, so the Liberals will gain, but not much. I don't feel a break through. Kevin Taft is still unknown to Albertans and I think people still trust Ed Stelmach.

2008 prediction:
(-2) 58 PC
(+5) 21 Liberal
(-1) 3 NDP
(--) 1 Wildrose Alliance
I also predict that Kevin Taft wins his riding but not by much.

So I think Albertans are going to give Ed a chance, Edmontonians in particular.

My next prediction... Liberal leadership race ensues and Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier runs and easily wins, takes the party to the right, and the next Alberta election turns into an Edmonton vs. Calgary classic battle of Alberta.

Federal Budget 2008

Blogging live watching the budget delivered by everyone's favourite leprechaun look-a-like, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

How the Tax-Free Savings Account Will Work

- Starting in 2009, Canadian residents age 18 or older will be eligible to contribute up to $5,000 annually to a TFSA, with unused room being carried forward.

- Contributions will not be deductible.

- Capital gains and other investment income earned in a TFSA will not be taxed.

- Withdrawals will be tax-free.

- Neither income earned within a TFSA nor withdrawals from it will affect eligibility for federal income-tested benefits and credits.

- Withdrawals will create contribution room for future savings.

- Contributions to a spouse's or common-law partner's TFSA will be allowed, and TFSA assets will be transferable to the TFSA of a spouse or common-law partner upon death.

- Qualified investments include all arm's-length Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) qualified investments.

- The $5,000 annual contribution limit will be indexed to inflation in $500 increments.

From: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20080226/budget_taxes_080226/20080226?hub=TopStories

9/11 myth about Canada

I've been working in Alexandria, Virginia lately and have toured around Washington, DC. On crossing the Potomac River back to Arlington and Alexandria, I've driven by the Pentagon a few times, and have thought about 9/11 quite a bit. What people forget is that the Pentagon is right across the river from the White House, Capitol and National Mall. A slight deviation could have had the plane hit America at it's governmental core.

In speaking with some American friends, a couple of them blamed Canada for allowing the 9/11 terrorists to go through my country into the U.S. to commit and plan the attacks.

I honestly didn't know the truth behind those claims, and was a bit embarrassed. My only reply was, "They got into the U.S. as well!"

But the truth is, the 9/11 terrorists did not enter the U.S. through Canada. Read this. They had already been in the U.S. for sometime, training and planning the attacks.

I'm not trying to play down the terrible events and the lives lost that day. On the contrary, it is the truth of what happened that is ever important. There's a lot of conspiracy theories regarding that day, and from what I've seen, they've been refuted.

Mind you, many Americans really don't know much about their neighbours to the north. They do think it's really cold, as whenever it's really cold in the U.S., especially this winter, their weather reporters usually say, "... cold front from Canada" or "Alberta clipper moves cold air into the Midwest". The truth is, that cold air usually originates from Siberia and the Arctic.

Anyway, I just wanted to clear that up.

How to crash a Republican party

Currently, I've been working on contract in Alexandria, Virginia. Being the political hack that I am, I tuned into CNN while Tuesday Feb. 12th Potomac Primary votes were coming in. Then I saw that Republican Presidential candidate, Senator John McCain, was having a rally at a hotel only 10 minutes away from my hotel. I thought, "Why the heck not?"

So here's how to crash a political "party" event (in case you were wondering):

0. Remove the Obama button you were wearing earlier.

1. Upon entering the hotel, find out if they have a bar. Then watch whether other folks are actually paying for drinks. If not, then it's another bonus. Regardless, always leave a $1 tip for the barkeep to show you're not a moocher (although you are). Get a beer.


2. With beer in hand, walk over to one of the campaign tables, and get that campaign sticker slapped on your chest. Get a button too. Show that you are a "true" supporter.

3. Drink beer. Get another beer.

4. Eat some shrimp. Have people stare at you because you look out of place, BUT you have that sticker, so don't fret, you're okay. Be cool.

5. So then walk into the ballroom and take pictures to show you're really excited to be there.

6. Look like you're a mover and a shaker. Pull out your cell phone and call friends and family back home to tell them where you are and to look for you on CNN.

7. Drink beer. Get another beer.

8. Eat some shrimp.

9. Have a guy ask you what the results are and say, "We won all three primaries!" Notice the "We" part? Again, that shows you're a "true" supporter. Now you're really in.

10. Mosey your way into the crowd in front of the TV cameras. Take pictures. Continue drinking beer, because really, it's all about the free beer.

11. Candidate comes on stage. Whistle and cheer. Take pictures.

12. Tell someone that's talking during to speech to "ssshhh", because you want to hear what he has to say. Get approving glances from others. Now you're really one of them.

13. When speech is over, get a good close up shot of the candidate.

14. Go back stage where close supporters stood prior to the speech and grab the tape marker off the floor bearing the candidate's name.

15. Go to the podium where the candidate just spoke and get a photo of yourself taken by some guy who was there because his Chicago flight was delayed at the Reagan National Airport. Take a picture of him too.

16. Go to the hotel bar with said guy, befriend others, and then show how much more a Canadian knows about American politics and health care than they do.

17. Get them to buy you beers.

18. Watch a CNN reporter on TV from the ballroom and say, "Hey, we were just there!"