Canadian 2020 election prediction and other predictions

Election Predictions! Get your Election Predictions here! My Tory majority prediction from last week is out the window. I’m seeing it’s almost like 1972 when another Trudeau led a minority coalition. History repeats itself.

142 Conservatives
125 Liberals
35 NDP
33 Bloc
2 Green
1 Independent
0 People’s Party

As pollster Nik Nanos said, “Now it’s about the ground game and delivering votes.” This is where I believe the Conservatives have an advantage. With the advance polls showing a 25% increase, the Conservative base being larger, more motivated, and unwavering, the campaign has been relentless in getting out the vote in the advance polls and will be on Oct 21. But it won’t be enough in Ontario to flip the 905.

The aftermath will see many wanting Trudeau, Singh, and May try to form a coalition government of Liberals, NDP, and Greens.

Trudeau being the self-serving guy he is will try and make it work. So they give it a shot and ask the GG to form government.

After many recent provincial elections, and this one being very divisive, Canadians will reject the idea of having another election. The coalition government lives on.

Tories are careful not to be seen “in bed” with the Bloc separatists to defeat the government. But oh man, they are angrier than ever.

The country couldn’t be more divided. Alberta separation sentiment becomes more of the talk and while a federal Alberta Block Party becomes a thing, Premier Kenney gets even louder about provincial rights. For the Bloc, same thing.

After about two years, the national debate on provincial autonomy becomes the reason why the Tories and Bloc decide to defeat the coalition government.

All the parties have the same leaders. Liberals call the Tories bluff and Canadians tired of the stunt, plus an unstable recession economy, vote for stability with Trudeau in a majority government again.

Just like his father did in 1974. Like I said, history repeats itself.

Andrew Scheer steps down as Tory leader. Tories have a leadership race in 2022 and Peter MacKay wins it. Over whom, I’m not sure.

Canadians tired of ten years of Trudeau at the helm, vote for change in 2025 and lean to MacKay’s more moderate Conservative party with a majority. This is where it differs from history because Tory Joe Clark won the election with a minority in 1979. This is because comparatively, Peter is well known compared to Joe at the time. MacKay wins two terms.

There you have it folks.

Oh, and Kenney wins Alberta again in 2023 and 2027. Ford does not win Ontario in 2022 and for the federal Tories, this is a good thing.

Meanwhile in the USA, Trump wins in 2020. With the Democrats not finding a new candidate, Barack Obama is begged to return in 2024.

In Russia in 2024, after two terms of Putin, Medvedev wins the presidency again with Putin as his Prime Minister again. In 2030, Putin wins again and rules until 2042 at the age of 89.

To keep Putin in check until then, German Chancellor Angela Merkel continues until the age of 88.

The UK has four more prime ministers and still hasn’t Brexited the EU.

Pope Francis remains in perfect health until he steps down in 2029 at 92 years.

Some of these predictions might very well come true (see: Putin).

Now remember to always vote when you can. Do it early and do it often!

Trudeau mentioning Doug Ford as much as Scheer is working

 #cdnpoli #cdnelxn

Like I said in my last post, Ontario is the real battleground and why Trudeau mentions Ford just as much as Scheer, and is still even mentioning Harper.

The current aggregation of polls in Ontario shows that although the Liberals are up by about 7 points, seat-wise it translates as:

75 (+/- 31) Liberals
30 (+/- 28) Conservatives

So the absolute worst the Liberals can do in Ontario is 44 seats and Conservatives best is 58 which makes other parts of the country in play.  Half of that is 60 for Liberals and 44 for Conservatives.

Note that before the campaign the seat projections were:
63 Liberals
49 Conservatives

This is a change of:
+12 seats Liberals
 -19 seats Conservatives

That's a +27 seat swing in Ontario in favour of Trudeau.  SEATS.  This means that the Conservative campaign in Ontario has massively failed and why Trudeau will win. Full stop. Nothing else really matters, does it?

When the federal party doesn't want to mention the provincial leader, the provincial party infrastructure support collapses.  I mean, the Ontario PCs aren't exactly united after that last leadership debacle either and are probably not too motivated to support boring Saskatchewan Scheer.

It's also why the Liberals are targeting Scheer's credibility now as well and why he's hit a ceiling. 

From our cheap seats, it appears the best the Conservatives can really do is make Scheer seem bland and not scary and equally attack Trudeau on his proven lack of credibility and hope that those who were leaning toward him just don't vote. 

But that's a stretch against decades of history.

Has there really been a polarizing issue dividing Canadians other than leader credibility?  Is it the environment?  Liberals are banking on that one in order to gain a couple points with those leaning toward Green or NDP, but the Greens in Ontario are insignificant where the NDP play in Northern Ontario quite well and there are several swing ridings there.

With Thanksgiving weekend approaching and family talks at the dinner tables, policy won't be the discussion, but how fake Trudeau is and how unscary Scheer is which boils down to the cliche "The devil we know versus the one we don't" or "The blackface devil we know versus the whiteface quiet scary one."

And in Ontario, it appears Ford has also become a known devil and history shows the federal Conservatives will get the fallout from that.