Long-Gun Registry politics

We now have NDP MPs, who at a previous reading, voted in favour of scrapping the registry, are now lining up to vote down in final reading.

Some journalists have said whichever way the vote goes, it's a win for Conservatives.  On one hand, if opposition parties do not have enough votes, the bill passes and the registry is done.  On the other hand, if the bill is defeated, it's possible that registry-turncoat rural NDP MPs are in the sights (pun intended) of being blown out of their seats (definite pun) to Conservatives in the next election over this issue. 

Conservative radio and billboard ads in these ridings have been popping up (pun?) and has possibly been the reason why these NDP MPs are changing their tune.  But perhaps that was the Conservative strategy to win either way.

While normally I would say voter memory is almost non-existent, this long-standing issue (pun intended) is much more contentious. 

So I have two questions for you:

1.  Did non-partisan farmers, duck hunters, and libertarians in these ridings vote for the NDP candidates in their riding because of their stance on the long-gun registry?

2.  Are these same folks going to vote against the NDP candidate and for the Conservative candidate?  Are the radio ads and billboards going to affect their view of the NDP candidate?  (Don't forget that the NDP began out of the CCF in rural Western Canada, so there are some deep roots there folks.)

Note that all the Conservatives need are 12 more seats to hold a majority.  They can win these next election in Western Canada (especially BC) and Northern Ontario to get there as long as they hold their current seats.

However close the votes in the House of Commons for or against the gun registry is irrelevant.  If the Conservatives get to the promised land of majorus parliamentus, they'll just shoot it down with a double barrel shot gun with no problem.