The Thrown Speech and the Blue Pill

• Bert Brown was just sworn in as a senator. Appointed by Prime Minister Harper in April 2007, Brown was elected in the 2004 Alberta Senatorial Election and becomes the second person to be "elected" to the senate, after Stan Waters ran under the Reform banner in the late 80's and was appointed by then Prime Minister Brian Mulroney.
  
  
• Will the NDP and Bloc vote against the "Thrown" Speech?
  - Yes. But it won't be enough to topple it. The Conservatives need only one of the parties for it to pass, and I don't think the Liberals are going to balk.
  
  
• So will the Thrown Speech contain stuff everyone can agree on (i.e. cut taxes) except one blue poison pill that Liberal leader, Stephane Dion, might swallow and if he doesn't, Harper could blame Dion for triggering an election?
  - You bet your prescription.
  
  
• What's that pill?
  - Admitting that the Kyoto Accord targets cannot be met. Why? Because even Dion says, "We didn't get it done. It's not easy to make priorities."
  
  
• How do I know this?
  - Because the Conservatives ran TV ads exposing this very thing that Canadians now attach to Dion. They'd simply need to be reminded.
  
  
• So will the Speech get thrown and trigger an election?
  - Nope. Dion's a pacifist and with no money, low support (especially in Quebec), and low leadership confidence, the Liberals would lose badly.
  
  
• Which means?
  - Dion will have to swallow the blue pill and no election will ensue and Harper wins either way.