Conservative Leadership Race (CLR): Wall and Baird out, Rempel makes waves

 #cdnpoli #cpcldr #cpc

Brad Wall said election night he's not interested in running and doesn't speak a lot of French. 

John Baird had both feet in the water, but has abruptly pulled them out:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/john-baird-says-he-wont-run-for-conservative-leadership/article26971041/

Which is really too bad.  He was one of the most effective ministers in the entire government of the past nine years.  Jason Kenney must be happy about it to have less competition.

Michelle Rempel, if you haven't already read, made some late-night tweets about the honest perceptions of her as a leadership candidate.  I need not repost them here, because if you're reading this blog, you've probably already read what she tweeted.  What many didn't see happened a couple days later, when she released a statement regarding those tweets and the kind of political discussion waves that can be made through social media.  It was rather bold.  More especially, it was very effective--which was her whole point.

Conservative Leadership Race -- The Long Haul

#cdnpoli #cpc When is the last time this happened?

Well, you have to go back to December 2003 when the Conservative Party formed as a merger between the Progressive Conservatives led by Peter MacKay (remember Napkin Gate?) and the Canadian Alliance Party, taken over by Stephen Harper.  This merger was supposedly brokered by Belinda Stronach, daughter of Magna magnate, Frank Stronach, who later dated Peter MacKay, but then crossed the floor to the Martin Liberals.

(I won't get into the machinations of everything that led up to the formation of the party--that's a whole other story.)

Then in 2004, Harper, Stronach, and Tony Clement announced their candidacy.  Harper cleaned up on the first ballot with about 69% of the total vote (56% of the total points).

Soon after, Harper's Conservatives lost to Paul Martin's Liberals, but held them to a shocking minority, 134 to 99 seats.

Two years later in 2006, Harper's Conservatives beat Martin's Liberals 124 to 103, bringing an end to a 13 year Liberal reign.

Two years later again in 2008, Harper's Conservatives beat Stephane Dion's Liberals 147 to 77. 

Three years later in 2011, Harper's Conservatives finally won a majority with 166 seats and help from Jack Layton's NDP winning 103 seats and forming the official opposition for the first time. The Liberals under Michael Ignatieff had their lowest showing in party history with 33 seats.

Harper's Conservatives were in government for almost 10 years, and Harper was leader of the Alliance for two years, plus two as Conservaitve opposition leader, plus 10 as Prime Minister. That's 14 years at the helm of a party.  Whomever the next Conservative leader is, he or she had better be prepared for the long-haul.  Unless Trudeau massively screws up, get used to at least 8 years of Trudeau Liberals.  Don't forget that Harper also spent time as an MP and Deputy Leader of the Reform Party from 1993 to 1997.

In examining the past elections, we can see that Conservative support has a solid base at about 30% of voters with softer supporters at 10% and maybe a few more.  As time goes on, and the baby boomer generation passes on, as a good chunk of the electorate, Conservatives can expect to lose base support and see little growth with millennials, who have tended to the NDP and Liberals.

What I'm saying here is the next Conservative leader needs to fully commit, understand the long-game, appeal to a younger base somehow in order to see any potential growth, and to promote the core conservative principles to entice the middle class base.  Most especially, the leader needs to sell proven fiscal domestic conservative policies as the best-approach to our society and future.  Further, how do you grow the base of women supporters, continue the ethnic support, and win seats back in BC, Ontario, and Nova Scotia?

As an exercise, let's look at the names of the potential candidates I've read and heard being touted thus far, and see if you can fit the descriptions as I've stated above to the names and reputations below.

Previous cabinet ministers and current MPs (in alphabetical order):

• Rona Ambrose - Alberta
• Michael Chong - Ontario
• Tony Clement - Ontario
• Jason Kenney - Alberta
• Kellie Leitch - Ontario
• Lisa Raitt - Ontario
• Michelle Rempel - Alberta

Past cabinet ministers and past MPs:

• John Baird - Ontario
• Maxime Bernier - Quebec
• Peter MacKay - Nova Scotia
• James Moore - British Columbia
• Brian Pallister - Manitoba

Past premiers / past federal leaders:

• Jean Charest - Quebec
• Bernard Lord - New Brunswick

Current premiers:

• Christy Clark - British Columbia
• Brad Wall - Saskatchewan

Others:

• Doug Ford - Toronto city councillor
• Ben Mulroney - son of former prime minister Brian Mulroney

There's a few names that stand out for me.  Who stands out for you?

It's going to be a long leadership race.  My guess is the vote won't happen next year, but in Spring of 2017.

My Prediction vs. The Results

#cdnpoli #elxn42

Prediction: LIBERAL MINORITY
146 LPC
115 CPC
 72 NDP
   2 GREEN
   3 BLOC

Results:  LIBERAL MAJORITY (CLOSE)
184 LPC (+38 from prediction)
  99 CPC (-16)
  44 NDP (-28)
    1 GREEN (-1)
   10 BLOC (+7)

Prediction:  HARPER STEPS DOWN
 - In about 10 hours, Harper will step down as leader, a race will begin

Results:  CORRECT
- A CPC aide sent out a letter stating Harper would step down as leader, although there wasn't a formal announcement.  Whether Harper remains as an MP, is unknown, but I don't see why he wouldn't stay on and help.  He certainly knows what he's talking about when it comes to the PMO. This would be good for Canada.

Prediction:  CPC LEADERSHIP RACE

• John Baird - former CPC minister of everything makes a smart comeback
• Maxime Bernier - former Quebec CPC minister has been quietly lurking. And by quietly, I mean at the forefront.
• Jason Kenney - Minister of Defense and Multiculturalism - because everyone knows he will
• Lisa Raitt - Minister of Transport - because she's well-known
• Michelle Rempel - Minister of State-Western Diversification - because she has been very good in the media and against opponents this campaign
• Brad Wall - popular Saskatchewan premier - because he's the outsider and has charisma

- I have no idea who'll be tapped to be Leader of the Official Opposition--but my guess is someone closer to Toronto and national media
Results:  TOO EARLY
- The media mentioned that Kenny, Raitt, and Wall were potential candidates, so I'm half-right on this one so far.  I also think there will be a quiet "Anybody But Kenney" coalescing around Baird.


Prediction:  MULCAIR WON'T STEP DOWN.. YET
 -  NDP Tom Mulcair will also step-down, but not right away, and he'll make a decision in the coming days as he reassess whether he wants to continue to be leader of a 3rd party, or knowing the knives are out anyway.  Nathan Cullen will be the next NDP leader, as he should have been in the first place.

Results:  CORRECT, SO FAR
- Mulcair did not step down as leader.  Cullen won his seat.

Prediction:  CONSERVATIVE BASE INTACT
 - What should be noted is the Conservatives are no where near out of the picture, other than government.  Whomever is tapped to lead, they will have a chance as official opposition, then after 8 years of Trudeau, they have a real chance.  And yes, I just predicted Trudeau will win in 4 years.

Results:  STRONG OPPOSITION
- Conservatives got 99-100 seats and have plenty of former cabinet ministers now in opposition.  They know the files.  They know the ins and outs.  They will be much more effective in holding Trudeau and Co. to account.  Much more than the previous inexperienced NDP and decimated Liberals.  That said, the new leader will need time in opposition.


Some thoughts:

Q:  Why did the Harper campaign lose this election?
A:   Two things. 
  1) They underestimated Trudeau to galvanize old Liberals.  Even old Brian Mulroney said so. 
  2)  NDP collapse.  So although the Conservatives gained some support from the niqab issue, the NDP lost support allowing the Liberals to shoot up the middle, especially in Quebec.

Q:  Why did the NDP crumble?
A:  Their stance on the niqab issue was not liked in Quebec, Tom Mulcair is no Jack Layton by any means, and a lot of their existing MPs were weak.  They lost the "protest vote" as a result.


In my next post, we'll do some advanced number crunching and look to previous elections to see what else happened.

Federal Election 2015 Predictions - Trudeaupia version

. #cdnpoli #elxn42 = Liberal minority.

- My prediction unfortunately changed in the last few days.  To get a majority, the vote percentage needs to be in the 38% range--that was when we had 308 seats. With 338 now, I'm not so sure.

146 LPC
115 CPC
 72 NDP
   2 GREEN
   3 BLOC
338 Total Seats

- The higher turnout at the advanced polls is a result of the CPC performing well on get-out-the-vote (GOTV) with seniors, who lean to the Conservatives because they donate to them as well.  This GOTV effort will also translate today, pushing the CPC higher than expected, but not enough.  Seniors since Thanksgiving, however, have decided to hand over the reigns to a younger leader.

- What's been amazing this campaign is seeing how high Mulcair and the NDP were early on and where they are now.  I think, however, the CPC were expecting a better NDP showing to split more of the vote in key ridings.

- That may not happen as much as the election turning point at the debate where Trudeau had glimpses of passion about his father--invigorating some emotion which he has then since rode upon in the remaining weeks.

- Trudeau's policy announcement gamble on massive infrastructure and deficit spending was a very interesting move.  If he would have said that a national high-speed rail system would be a part of it, he would have my attention--because we need it, badly, but it didn't.  His advisors apparently made the right choice in saying they'd kick-start the economy with this spending all the while campaigning in Ontario with Liberal Premier Wynne and her poor handling of that province's economy and her massive spending and deficits. Confused?

- The inundation of TV ads mostly back and forth between Trudeau and Harper shows a much more confident Trudeau trumpeting anti-Harper sentiment with the usual rhetoric, but a subdued Harper pleading to your pocket-book.

- Voters are mad this election--many don't know exactly why, but the left is motivated to get rid of Harper at all costs.  Even NDPers who didn't like Bill C51 are voting for Trudeau although the Liberals voted for it. 

- I am very curious to see if the younger vote made a difference in this one.

- In about 10 hours, Harper will step down as leader, a race will begin with CPC members voting in two years for at least one of:

• John Baird - former CPC minister of everything makes a smart comeback
• Maxime Bernier - former Quebec CPC minister has been quietly lurking. And by quietly, I mean at the forefront.
• Jason Kenney - Minister of Defense and Multiculturalism - because everyone knows he will
• Lisa Raitt - Minister of Transport - because she's well-known
• Michelle Rempel - Minister of State-Western Diversification - because she has been very good in the media and against opponents this campaign
• Brad Wall - popular Saskatchewan premier - because he's the outsider and has charisma

- I have no idea who'll be tapped to be Leader of the Official Opposition--but my guess is someone closer to Toronto and national media

-  NDP Tom Mulcair will also step-down, but not right away, and he'll make a decision in the coming days as he reassess whether he wants to continue to be leader of a 3rd party, or knowing the knives are out anyway.  Nathan Cullen will be the next NDP leader, as he should have been in the first place.

- With both the CPC and NDP choosing new leaders, neither will want to topple the minority gov't, allowing Trudeau to hang-on for 4 years.

- What should be noted is the Conservatives are no where near out of the picture, other than government.  Whomever is tapped to lead, they will have a chance as official opposition, then after 8 years of Trudeau, they have a real chance.  And yes, I just predicted Trudeau will win in 4 years.

I remember back when Trudeau said he wasn't going to run for Liberal leader.  That's when I knew he was going to, and win--even beating an astronaut, which he did.  But I didn't think he had his father's hutzpah or brains to actually become Prime Minister.

Or that the electorate was that gullible to believe him.

Welcome to Trudeaupia 2.0.