Election prediction - The Gut Method

Just before the election, I went with my gut and predicted a Conservative majority.  Not a huge one, but enough seats to put them over the edge.  Out of all of the pollsters (except Compas.ca), I was right on that.  I was also quite accurate on vote percentage.  I looked at the average and then went with my gut thinking the CPC always gets 2 to 3% more than the polls on election day, that the LPC would be a bit higher, and the NDP were being way overestimated.

On seats, though, what I wasn't right on was the opposition parties.  Not even close.  A friend of mine who's father happens to be the Alberta NDP leader, predicted 80 seats for the Dippers.  Even he underestimated admitting the NDP have no ground game in Quebec.  What we both didn't realize is that Quebeckers appear to vote for party, not people.

So, here's a quick recap of the numbers.  Seriously, look at how close I was on vote percentage.

PERCENTAGE	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
Actual	39.6	30.6	18.9	6.0	3.9
Pollster Average	37.4	31.2	18.8	6.5	4.9
Diff	-2.2	0.6	-0.1	0.5	1.0
Hatrock's Cave	40.0	30.0	20.0	7.0	3.0
Diff	0.4	-0.6	1.1	1.0	-0.9
SEATS	CPC	NDP	LPC	BQ	GPC	Ind
Actual	166	103	34	4	1	0
Pollster Average	145	90	51	20	0	0
Diff	-21	-13	17	16	-1	0
Hatrock's Cave	157	65	55	30	0	1
Diff	-9	-38	21	26	-1	1

In summary:

• Don't underestimate the Conservatives.  Although I predicted a slight majority, I STILL underestimated.
  
• When Quebeckers turn on a party, they do it fast, and they do it big-time, even not regarding who the local candidate is.